HIT THE ROAD JACK, POQ’S GOT YOU COVERED
LADBROKE HURDLE PREVIEW
RUNNERS:
PREMIER DANE
Versatile sort who ran a big race when 3rd in last season’s County Hurdle at Cheltenham. 4lb higher now and whilst he possibly didn’t get home over 2m 5f on his chasing debut it remains to be seen if he is as good as his rating makes him out to be. No easy task on ground plenty fast enough for him here and others more likely.
FRENCH SAULAIE
Improving handicapper who put two weak runs behind him at the start of the season to run a good 2nd to Mon Michel in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury. The ground looked a major benefactor that day and its hard to see him producing the same level of form on a much quicker surface off a 5lb higher mark.
POQUELIN
Promising seasonal reappearance when close up behind Kings Quay and Chivalry. Off a 3lb higher mark he was bitterly disappointing at Newbury but connections were quick to blame the ground and he is worth forgiving that awful effort. He is weighted to reverse form with Chivalry today and Nick Scholfield takes a handy 7lb off his back. Return to a sound surface will play into his strengths and he has an outside each way chance.
VISO
Winner of his last 3 starts over hurdles in Ireland and run out a convincing winner at Naas last time travelling well before asserting after the last. He looked to have won that day with any amount in hand but the British handicapper has certainly acted alarmingly to say the least. Rated 120 in Ireland after going up 9lb the English handicapper felt he warranted a further 17lb rise for that success. He is open to improvement but 26lb higher for winning a minor handicap looks extremely harsh to me and despite the booking of Tony McCoy I would be keen to take him on off what looks a truly unjustified high mark.
AMOUR MULTIPLE
Fair effort off 6lb lower mark when 5th to Kanad here and then built on that run when chasing home Missis Potts next time out. Having travelled very well throughout that contest he may have found the ground softer than ideal. Back on a sound surface here he has to come into calculations even if the 6lb rise looks harsh enough. Possible that he is still improving and is likely to play a hand in the finish.
ALTILHAR
Stable were by no means flying when this horse chased home Kanad and Platin grounds here in November and its worth considering he had three horses in behind him who shouldn’t turn the form around. Raised 2lb for that effort its interesting to see a horse that could possibly be well handicapped a solid each way price. The ground is ideal for him unlike many others and he has a good turn of foot which is needed to win this race. Possibly a few pounds ahead of the handicapper I believe he is one of the bigger players in the line up and with the yards horses in much better form now, he does have to enter calculations.
TROUBLE AT BAY
Disappointed when fancied by some at large odds in the County Hurdle last year he returned with a promising effort in the Greatwood Hurdle staying on well in the closing stages to finish fourth. Handicapper taken no chances raising him 8lbs and I personally think that is far too much for a horse who has only won once in the past three years and it came in a novices chase. Would have possibly wanted softer ground today and that will count against him today.
MISSIS POTTS
Impressive improving mare who stayed on well to win at Stratford at the end of last season and came back in great style to score here in emphatic style seeing off Amour Multiple, European Dream and recent winner Gabier. Up 11lb as a result but clearly going in the right direction and Tom Molloy takes 5lb off her back this afternoon.
CHIVALRY
High class horse on the flat before making a few headlines before he had even jumped a hurdle. Has done really well this season so far recording a couple of narrow defeats in competitive race and would have probably won at Wincanton but for smashing through the last. Far form disgraced on ground too soft for him when 3rd to Sizing Europe at Cheltenham but a 9lb rise may have evened up that balance. Will have no problems on this quick surface and the track will really suit him. Questionable how much improvement is left in him but seriously hard not to see him getting involved.
PIGEON ISLAND
Consistent sort who has always given his best and put up some good performances in competitive races. Stamina never a problem but not blessed with speed and looks the sort who is crying out for 2m 4f – 3m and best runs have come when there is strong gallop. Chances he will be running on well at the death but whether he has the speed to make his presence felt where it matters is another matter.
ALSADAA
May have been unbeaten but for a fall on his 3rd start and won in good style on fast ground here last time out. Handicapper may have been fair or unfair off 133 and its hard to tell as it’s a fair mark for what he’s achieved but faces no easy task against seasoned handicappers for the first time. With the ground absolutely no problem he would be interesting if the market spoke positively and no surprise to see him go well.
HEATHCOTE
Won the Tote Gold Trophy off a 6lb higher mark last season but has failed to set the world alight this season and was disappointing last time at Sandown. Possibles if back to his form but hard to recommend on what he has shown this season so far.
VICTRAM
Winner of the Sunderlands Imperial Cup a couple of years ago and was 3rd in this corresponding race last season. Hasn’t run to that form since and a total disgrace to see the English handicapper making him run off 132 given he is actually rated 126. Didn’t get up the hill at Cheltenham last time but return to a flatter track will suit and if the ground isn’t too fast he has to have a strong chance.
KINGS REVENGE
Has been improving lately and only a few pounds higher for some strong placed efforts lately. Stayed on nicely last time at Newbury in the Gerry Fielden and was doing his best work late on. Faster ground here no problem and whilst he is hinting that he may want further nowadays it would not be a surprise to see him running on where it matters.
KANAD
Continuously improved lately and looked good winning here beating several of his rivals here earlier in the season. Only up 7lb but never going next time at Cheltenham and couldn’t get up the hill. Back on fast ground further improvement is not out the question and interesting stable jockey opts to ride him today. He has to have chances here in this race but may be playing for a place at best.
ORPEN WIDE
Runs in blinkers here but hard to see him getting competitive here as he looks just in the grips of the handicapper. Likes to go prominent and likely to be up in the van for some time but hard to see him being good enough to collect at this level.
RIO DE JANEIRO
Stayed on like a train late when 4th to Kanad here in November and then ran a super race in 5th when staying nicely over a longer trip at Cheltenham. Chances are he just wants a bit of give in the ground but most importantly a stiff 2m would suit better. He hits a flat spot in his races and that’s where he looses ground which is crucial. I can see him running on late and may grab a place but I have no doubt in my mind that he will win a decent handicap hurdle this season.
JACK THE GIANT
Formally a good flat horse for Barry Hills and came good over hurdles in his first season. Much improved over fences last season he returned a very well handicapped horse at Cheltenham last time seeing off Roman Villa in gutsy style. Some people have questioned the level of form with the 2nd looking reluctant to go by and the favourite running well below par but hard not to be impressed by this horses attitude and with only a 6lb penalty he is hard not to be keen on. This is a step up in class but he still looks well in and could be a likely winner.
Summary:
First of all I want to get something off my chest and that is because of the British handicapper 2 of the more exciting horses in this race have little chance because of how badly they have been treated. Victram is a horse I seriously rate and he has another big race in him before the season’s out but on ground this quick he could do with a shower or two. However the most annoying thing is he hasn’t run a big race since finishing 3rd in this last year off 128 and whilst the Irish Handicapper has dropped him to 126 the English handicapper has decided to make him run off 132 which is a complete and totally unjustified joke. He was running a big race at Cheltenham last time and would have gone close but for the fact he doesn’t get up the hill. He has solid each way claims here and had he been able to run off his true mark I would have considered him a strong bet in this especially with a talented 7lb claimer easing the strain.
The handicapper’s grip however takes a bigger ***** take in the fact of how he has judged Viso. An impressive winner at Naas he would be a serious contender if allowed to run off his actual mark of 120 but once again our handicapper has decided to stitch him up with a further 17lb rise making it that he has gone up 26lb for winning little under 3l last time. He is a horse that would have been well in off 120 but off 137 it’s a different story and that for me is completely unfair and if the handicapper continues this approach then the leading Irish handicappers wont bother running in our valuable handicap hurdles.
For me 2 or 3 stand out here and I feel Altilhar could be well treated on his run with kanad and with the yards horses in much stronger form now he has to come under serious consideration. He looks value at 9/1 and is a solid each way bet for me.
Jack The Giant does look well in on the Cheltenham form but the fact the main form horse in the race ran well below his level and it wont be the full gone conclusion that it looks at this level. I expect to see him on the premises but at 4/1 he isn’t what I would call value.
Instead I’m happy to back 2 horses in this and firstly I expect a big run from Chivalry who is a decent sort who is progressing nicely and wasn’t at home on the ground at Cheltenham last time. He was a good 2nd at Wincanton the time before and the flatter track will suit. He stayed on well that day and but for a mistake at the last he would have won. Back on his favoured surface here I can see him going very close indeed.
However for me the value lies with POQUELIN and he was never going in testing conditions at Newbury last time and is better judged when 3rd off a 3lb lower mark at Wincanton. Interestingly connections pulled him out of the Cheltenham race on soft ground but let him run at Newbury and that suggests to me he wasn’t ever fancied at Newbury. 6lb better off with Chivalry here he looked as if he needed the run at Wincanton and I can see great improvement from him today. Back on a sound surface he definitely has claims and the booking of young amateur Nick Scholfield is a strong jockey booking as he takes the weight off his back. This horse looked a horse to keep with at Wincanton in November and with solid reasons to suggest all was not well at Newbury he looks as if the bookmakers have taken a chance going so big on him today. The 16/1 available today is great value and he rates a cracking each way bet for me.
Advised Bets
2PTS WIN, 4PTS PLACE POQUELIN @ 17 & 4.6
1pt Win, 2pts Place Chivalry @ 13.5 & 3.4
0.5pts Win, 1.5pts Place Altilhar @ 14.5 & 3.85
0.5pts Ew, Victram @ 24 & 5.2
Total Pts = 10pts
£1 C.F.C, Poquelin, Chivalry, Altilhar, Victram, Jack The Giant, Rio De Janeiro = £30.00
20p C.T.C, Poquelin, Chivalry, Altilhar, Victram, Jack The Giant, Rio De Janeiro = £6.00
Good Luck
Chris
LADBROKE HURDLE PREVIEW
RUNNERS:
PREMIER DANE
Versatile sort who ran a big race when 3rd in last season’s County Hurdle at Cheltenham. 4lb higher now and whilst he possibly didn’t get home over 2m 5f on his chasing debut it remains to be seen if he is as good as his rating makes him out to be. No easy task on ground plenty fast enough for him here and others more likely.
FRENCH SAULAIE
Improving handicapper who put two weak runs behind him at the start of the season to run a good 2nd to Mon Michel in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury. The ground looked a major benefactor that day and its hard to see him producing the same level of form on a much quicker surface off a 5lb higher mark.
POQUELIN
Promising seasonal reappearance when close up behind Kings Quay and Chivalry. Off a 3lb higher mark he was bitterly disappointing at Newbury but connections were quick to blame the ground and he is worth forgiving that awful effort. He is weighted to reverse form with Chivalry today and Nick Scholfield takes a handy 7lb off his back. Return to a sound surface will play into his strengths and he has an outside each way chance.
VISO
Winner of his last 3 starts over hurdles in Ireland and run out a convincing winner at Naas last time travelling well before asserting after the last. He looked to have won that day with any amount in hand but the British handicapper has certainly acted alarmingly to say the least. Rated 120 in Ireland after going up 9lb the English handicapper felt he warranted a further 17lb rise for that success. He is open to improvement but 26lb higher for winning a minor handicap looks extremely harsh to me and despite the booking of Tony McCoy I would be keen to take him on off what looks a truly unjustified high mark.
AMOUR MULTIPLE
Fair effort off 6lb lower mark when 5th to Kanad here and then built on that run when chasing home Missis Potts next time out. Having travelled very well throughout that contest he may have found the ground softer than ideal. Back on a sound surface here he has to come into calculations even if the 6lb rise looks harsh enough. Possible that he is still improving and is likely to play a hand in the finish.
ALTILHAR
Stable were by no means flying when this horse chased home Kanad and Platin grounds here in November and its worth considering he had three horses in behind him who shouldn’t turn the form around. Raised 2lb for that effort its interesting to see a horse that could possibly be well handicapped a solid each way price. The ground is ideal for him unlike many others and he has a good turn of foot which is needed to win this race. Possibly a few pounds ahead of the handicapper I believe he is one of the bigger players in the line up and with the yards horses in much better form now, he does have to enter calculations.
TROUBLE AT BAY
Disappointed when fancied by some at large odds in the County Hurdle last year he returned with a promising effort in the Greatwood Hurdle staying on well in the closing stages to finish fourth. Handicapper taken no chances raising him 8lbs and I personally think that is far too much for a horse who has only won once in the past three years and it came in a novices chase. Would have possibly wanted softer ground today and that will count against him today.
MISSIS POTTS
Impressive improving mare who stayed on well to win at Stratford at the end of last season and came back in great style to score here in emphatic style seeing off Amour Multiple, European Dream and recent winner Gabier. Up 11lb as a result but clearly going in the right direction and Tom Molloy takes 5lb off her back this afternoon.
CHIVALRY
High class horse on the flat before making a few headlines before he had even jumped a hurdle. Has done really well this season so far recording a couple of narrow defeats in competitive race and would have probably won at Wincanton but for smashing through the last. Far form disgraced on ground too soft for him when 3rd to Sizing Europe at Cheltenham but a 9lb rise may have evened up that balance. Will have no problems on this quick surface and the track will really suit him. Questionable how much improvement is left in him but seriously hard not to see him getting involved.
PIGEON ISLAND
Consistent sort who has always given his best and put up some good performances in competitive races. Stamina never a problem but not blessed with speed and looks the sort who is crying out for 2m 4f – 3m and best runs have come when there is strong gallop. Chances he will be running on well at the death but whether he has the speed to make his presence felt where it matters is another matter.
ALSADAA
May have been unbeaten but for a fall on his 3rd start and won in good style on fast ground here last time out. Handicapper may have been fair or unfair off 133 and its hard to tell as it’s a fair mark for what he’s achieved but faces no easy task against seasoned handicappers for the first time. With the ground absolutely no problem he would be interesting if the market spoke positively and no surprise to see him go well.
HEATHCOTE
Won the Tote Gold Trophy off a 6lb higher mark last season but has failed to set the world alight this season and was disappointing last time at Sandown. Possibles if back to his form but hard to recommend on what he has shown this season so far.
VICTRAM
Winner of the Sunderlands Imperial Cup a couple of years ago and was 3rd in this corresponding race last season. Hasn’t run to that form since and a total disgrace to see the English handicapper making him run off 132 given he is actually rated 126. Didn’t get up the hill at Cheltenham last time but return to a flatter track will suit and if the ground isn’t too fast he has to have a strong chance.
KINGS REVENGE
Has been improving lately and only a few pounds higher for some strong placed efforts lately. Stayed on nicely last time at Newbury in the Gerry Fielden and was doing his best work late on. Faster ground here no problem and whilst he is hinting that he may want further nowadays it would not be a surprise to see him running on where it matters.
KANAD
Continuously improved lately and looked good winning here beating several of his rivals here earlier in the season. Only up 7lb but never going next time at Cheltenham and couldn’t get up the hill. Back on fast ground further improvement is not out the question and interesting stable jockey opts to ride him today. He has to have chances here in this race but may be playing for a place at best.
ORPEN WIDE
Runs in blinkers here but hard to see him getting competitive here as he looks just in the grips of the handicapper. Likes to go prominent and likely to be up in the van for some time but hard to see him being good enough to collect at this level.
RIO DE JANEIRO
Stayed on like a train late when 4th to Kanad here in November and then ran a super race in 5th when staying nicely over a longer trip at Cheltenham. Chances are he just wants a bit of give in the ground but most importantly a stiff 2m would suit better. He hits a flat spot in his races and that’s where he looses ground which is crucial. I can see him running on late and may grab a place but I have no doubt in my mind that he will win a decent handicap hurdle this season.
JACK THE GIANT
Formally a good flat horse for Barry Hills and came good over hurdles in his first season. Much improved over fences last season he returned a very well handicapped horse at Cheltenham last time seeing off Roman Villa in gutsy style. Some people have questioned the level of form with the 2nd looking reluctant to go by and the favourite running well below par but hard not to be impressed by this horses attitude and with only a 6lb penalty he is hard not to be keen on. This is a step up in class but he still looks well in and could be a likely winner.
Summary:
First of all I want to get something off my chest and that is because of the British handicapper 2 of the more exciting horses in this race have little chance because of how badly they have been treated. Victram is a horse I seriously rate and he has another big race in him before the season’s out but on ground this quick he could do with a shower or two. However the most annoying thing is he hasn’t run a big race since finishing 3rd in this last year off 128 and whilst the Irish Handicapper has dropped him to 126 the English handicapper has decided to make him run off 132 which is a complete and totally unjustified joke. He was running a big race at Cheltenham last time and would have gone close but for the fact he doesn’t get up the hill. He has solid each way claims here and had he been able to run off his true mark I would have considered him a strong bet in this especially with a talented 7lb claimer easing the strain.
The handicapper’s grip however takes a bigger ***** take in the fact of how he has judged Viso. An impressive winner at Naas he would be a serious contender if allowed to run off his actual mark of 120 but once again our handicapper has decided to stitch him up with a further 17lb rise making it that he has gone up 26lb for winning little under 3l last time. He is a horse that would have been well in off 120 but off 137 it’s a different story and that for me is completely unfair and if the handicapper continues this approach then the leading Irish handicappers wont bother running in our valuable handicap hurdles.
For me 2 or 3 stand out here and I feel Altilhar could be well treated on his run with kanad and with the yards horses in much stronger form now he has to come under serious consideration. He looks value at 9/1 and is a solid each way bet for me.
Jack The Giant does look well in on the Cheltenham form but the fact the main form horse in the race ran well below his level and it wont be the full gone conclusion that it looks at this level. I expect to see him on the premises but at 4/1 he isn’t what I would call value.
Instead I’m happy to back 2 horses in this and firstly I expect a big run from Chivalry who is a decent sort who is progressing nicely and wasn’t at home on the ground at Cheltenham last time. He was a good 2nd at Wincanton the time before and the flatter track will suit. He stayed on well that day and but for a mistake at the last he would have won. Back on his favoured surface here I can see him going very close indeed.
However for me the value lies with POQUELIN and he was never going in testing conditions at Newbury last time and is better judged when 3rd off a 3lb lower mark at Wincanton. Interestingly connections pulled him out of the Cheltenham race on soft ground but let him run at Newbury and that suggests to me he wasn’t ever fancied at Newbury. 6lb better off with Chivalry here he looked as if he needed the run at Wincanton and I can see great improvement from him today. Back on a sound surface he definitely has claims and the booking of young amateur Nick Scholfield is a strong jockey booking as he takes the weight off his back. This horse looked a horse to keep with at Wincanton in November and with solid reasons to suggest all was not well at Newbury he looks as if the bookmakers have taken a chance going so big on him today. The 16/1 available today is great value and he rates a cracking each way bet for me.
Advised Bets
2PTS WIN, 4PTS PLACE POQUELIN @ 17 & 4.6
1pt Win, 2pts Place Chivalry @ 13.5 & 3.4
0.5pts Win, 1.5pts Place Altilhar @ 14.5 & 3.85
0.5pts Ew, Victram @ 24 & 5.2
Total Pts = 10pts
£1 C.F.C, Poquelin, Chivalry, Altilhar, Victram, Jack The Giant, Rio De Janeiro = £30.00
20p C.T.C, Poquelin, Chivalry, Altilhar, Victram, Jack The Giant, Rio De Janeiro = £6.00
Good Luck
Chris
