Good afternoon;
I decided to be brave and Lay SHE'S A SHAW THING for 4 figures on the machine this morning.
Okay people will look at its 6l drumming of Sally's Dilemma and think of the fact Sally beat Doncaster Rover a neck, but lets look at it more logically.
Bill Turners filly was primed for its first run and it delivered, make no mistake she was as fit as a flea that day, she also received 8lb from an unraced Doncaster Rover who was described as a likable but round horse in the paddock who would prefer better ground.
In the early context of the race Sally was ridden to stay upsides the free traveling Doncaster Rover and only got on top in the final furlong. This was some performance by the 2nd who wouldn't have enjoyed the ground.
Next up the Nottingham race, She's A Shaw Thing beat Sally 5l off levels, but the crucial thing is that winner has to give 2lb to Doncaster Rover, so in many terms he would be ten pounds better off through a direct form line between his defeat by Sally and Shes A Shaw Thing meeting him here, remember off level weights there can be no other look than him beating Sally by 4l, then when you consider the 2lb he gets of SAST he comes out par.
His speed figure on debut was very quick but what has gone unnoticed by many is a sharp horse out the stalls, he can hold the inside off Shes A Shaw Thing. Finally pedigree's do count and Reel Buddy's progeny all want cut, yet War Chant is a top American fast ground sire. The odds add up in favour of the Doncaster Rover, who will love this quicker ground. You must remember shrewd Evan's outfit like to strike and White Shift is bred to be better on the ground and her early fractions at Great Leighs were somewhat more quicker than the yards shorter priced runner.
Perhaps more to the point Bill Turner has a guide on these horses today through Sally's Dilemma yet runs Just The Lady who stumbled turning for home last week in a strong all weather maiden before coming home well under hand riding. She can go a strong gallop as she showed at Musselburgh and Folkestone and could track the Doncaster Rover and She's A Shaw Thing before launching a late attack, she also has a stronger draw than the odds on shot.
My own feeling is that many people forget that She's A Shaw Thing has done it on soft ground and is not bred for fast ground, she also has been well drawn on both starts today, but surrenders the rail today. Remember she also is a very early foal and nicer types will now be out. The 4/6 on offer is ridiculously short and I will be going for a big lay with also a place lay on her.
My advice is a c.f.c Just The Lady, White Shift & Doncaster Rover. All fast ground bred and very smart away with stamina in bloodline to get further.
So as the saying goes, she is far from a Sure thing today.
The rest of the card is interesting and as Colin will agree with me, I'm sure neither of us will be backing the Sugar Mint today. At Bath she done the job well and the form was franked but she didn't cross the line saying I want 3.3f further and also this ground may find her out as she relished the cut at Bath, I will be laying her for 2pts to add to the 5pts laid on She's A Shaw Thing.
If there is a value bet today perhaps it could be Som Tala. Mick Channon's gelding was 5th in this race last season and was badly hampered turning in and was unable to recover. Stall 2 done this hold up horse no favours that day and the Channon team are now flying so his 3rd on the all weather can be bettered. Talking of flying, maybe a win will see a Frankie Dettori dismount. Som Tala is 4lb higher this season but he has improved for a gelding operation and his fine 3rd in the Ascot Stakes is the best form on show here, he didn't see out the 2m 4f that day and today's 2m 2f is his ideal trip. He will love the quick ground and comes here in top order. His wide draw can see him track round 3 off the rail and come with a late dash to challenge Double Banded, Tilt and Greenwich Meantime up the mini straight, these 4 can make good forecast perms, adding a Highland Legacy into a tricast perm.
My banker for the day however comes at 3.40 at Beverley and look no further than Collateral Damage who comes here after a luckless 5th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup at the weekend, he was running on but twice hampered over the weekend and his jockey was not too busy with him. Today he may shoulder top weight but he is in form and the ground will suit. Well drawn he looks good value at 11/2 and shouldn't be dismissed each way especially with Zero Tolerance set to set a searching gallop.
So here we are, 4 bits of advice today.
5pts lay She's A Shaw Thing @ 1.72
2pts Lay Sugar Mint @ 2.84
1pt Win, 3pts Place Som Tala @ 16.5 & 3.7
2pts Win & 8pts Place Collateral Damage @ 6.8 & 2.1
(0.2pts Forecasts, 0.1pt Tricasts, recommended in text)
Good Luck
Chris
I decided to be brave and Lay SHE'S A SHAW THING for 4 figures on the machine this morning.
Okay people will look at its 6l drumming of Sally's Dilemma and think of the fact Sally beat Doncaster Rover a neck, but lets look at it more logically.
Bill Turners filly was primed for its first run and it delivered, make no mistake she was as fit as a flea that day, she also received 8lb from an unraced Doncaster Rover who was described as a likable but round horse in the paddock who would prefer better ground.
In the early context of the race Sally was ridden to stay upsides the free traveling Doncaster Rover and only got on top in the final furlong. This was some performance by the 2nd who wouldn't have enjoyed the ground.
Next up the Nottingham race, She's A Shaw Thing beat Sally 5l off levels, but the crucial thing is that winner has to give 2lb to Doncaster Rover, so in many terms he would be ten pounds better off through a direct form line between his defeat by Sally and Shes A Shaw Thing meeting him here, remember off level weights there can be no other look than him beating Sally by 4l, then when you consider the 2lb he gets of SAST he comes out par.
His speed figure on debut was very quick but what has gone unnoticed by many is a sharp horse out the stalls, he can hold the inside off Shes A Shaw Thing. Finally pedigree's do count and Reel Buddy's progeny all want cut, yet War Chant is a top American fast ground sire. The odds add up in favour of the Doncaster Rover, who will love this quicker ground. You must remember shrewd Evan's outfit like to strike and White Shift is bred to be better on the ground and her early fractions at Great Leighs were somewhat more quicker than the yards shorter priced runner.
Perhaps more to the point Bill Turner has a guide on these horses today through Sally's Dilemma yet runs Just The Lady who stumbled turning for home last week in a strong all weather maiden before coming home well under hand riding. She can go a strong gallop as she showed at Musselburgh and Folkestone and could track the Doncaster Rover and She's A Shaw Thing before launching a late attack, she also has a stronger draw than the odds on shot.
My own feeling is that many people forget that She's A Shaw Thing has done it on soft ground and is not bred for fast ground, she also has been well drawn on both starts today, but surrenders the rail today. Remember she also is a very early foal and nicer types will now be out. The 4/6 on offer is ridiculously short and I will be going for a big lay with also a place lay on her.
My advice is a c.f.c Just The Lady, White Shift & Doncaster Rover. All fast ground bred and very smart away with stamina in bloodline to get further.
So as the saying goes, she is far from a Sure thing today.
The rest of the card is interesting and as Colin will agree with me, I'm sure neither of us will be backing the Sugar Mint today. At Bath she done the job well and the form was franked but she didn't cross the line saying I want 3.3f further and also this ground may find her out as she relished the cut at Bath, I will be laying her for 2pts to add to the 5pts laid on She's A Shaw Thing.
If there is a value bet today perhaps it could be Som Tala. Mick Channon's gelding was 5th in this race last season and was badly hampered turning in and was unable to recover. Stall 2 done this hold up horse no favours that day and the Channon team are now flying so his 3rd on the all weather can be bettered. Talking of flying, maybe a win will see a Frankie Dettori dismount. Som Tala is 4lb higher this season but he has improved for a gelding operation and his fine 3rd in the Ascot Stakes is the best form on show here, he didn't see out the 2m 4f that day and today's 2m 2f is his ideal trip. He will love the quick ground and comes here in top order. His wide draw can see him track round 3 off the rail and come with a late dash to challenge Double Banded, Tilt and Greenwich Meantime up the mini straight, these 4 can make good forecast perms, adding a Highland Legacy into a tricast perm.
My banker for the day however comes at 3.40 at Beverley and look no further than Collateral Damage who comes here after a luckless 5th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup at the weekend, he was running on but twice hampered over the weekend and his jockey was not too busy with him. Today he may shoulder top weight but he is in form and the ground will suit. Well drawn he looks good value at 11/2 and shouldn't be dismissed each way especially with Zero Tolerance set to set a searching gallop.
So here we are, 4 bits of advice today.
5pts lay She's A Shaw Thing @ 1.72
2pts Lay Sugar Mint @ 2.84
1pt Win, 3pts Place Som Tala @ 16.5 & 3.7
2pts Win & 8pts Place Collateral Damage @ 6.8 & 2.1
(0.2pts Forecasts, 0.1pt Tricasts, recommended in text)
Good Luck
Chris
Hope you made a bundle!