Laying horses

H

harry

At the Start
Joined
Apr 16, 2005
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Most may laugh but ive never contemplated this as im quite new to Betfair and only recently started to think of the lay part.
Does anyone concentrate on this more than backing to win?
I notice outsiders are huge on betfair so is laying favs the answer?
 
I lay a lot more than backing Harry. I tend to concentrate on the place market and find one I think has no earthly chance of coming in the first two or three. Of course, there are times when the thing sluices up and you think how in the hell...? :D
 
You can't do any worse than backing on Betfair.

I am yet to meet anyone (who isn't lying) who wins backing on Betfair. Even some of the shrewdest professionals I know can't win backing on there.

Very few people consistently know better than the market.
 
Gamla Stan said:
You can't do any worse than backing on Betfair.

I am yet to meet anyone (who isn't lying) who wins backing on Betfair. Even some of the shrewdest professionals I know can't win backing on there.

Very few people consistently know better than the market.
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Day in day out I agree but it must surely be possible to win on there if you're disciplined, specialise in what you back in and treat it exactly like another bookmaker.
 
I've made a profit every year for the last ten years, backing in F1 markets on Betfair. The balance between pre-race and IR profit is roughly 40/60. Balance between Back & Lay profit is roughly 60/40. I have no idea what these figures tell me.

I do my conkers on the nags though. :cool:
 
Just a simple example. I logged on to Betfair because I fancied West Ham to beat Swansea. They were 3.65 which for €200 on my discount rate returned €506.25. Instead I had the bet at 11/4 with Stan James. All of these small differentials add up at the end of the year.

I use Betfair to try and spin up a few quid. In general I would be more profitable if I never used Betfair because I lose my discipline. I find myself having an 'opinion' on races and events I would never dream of lodging money into a bookmaker account to bet on.
 
Yes. Discipline is tested more on Betfair than anywhere else. The difference between a profit and a loss this year for me on the flat is my lay of Ile De Re in the Northumberland Plate and asking for a bigger price than was available about Nathaniel in the Eclipse. Pre Betfair I couldn't have laid the former of course and I would just have rung a bookie up and taken a price on the latter.
 
Gamla Stan said:
You can't do any worse than backing on Betfair.

I am yet to meet anyone (who isn't lying) who wins backing on Betfair. Even some of the shrewdest professionals I know can't win backing on there.
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How in the name of jaysus are they making a professional living backing elsewhere if they can't win backing at Betfair? (The odds to Back on Betfair are as-a-rule higher than the odds at a bookmaker, the racetrack or SP).

To the OP, it is harder to turn a profit by Laying on Betfair than it is by Backing on Betfair. No doubt about it. The overround on Betfair is lower -- you will consistently be Laying at higher odds than the industry odds.
Back around 2001 when Betfair came onstream, many guileless tenderfoots believed that they now had a tool to generate a nice earner by Laying. They were soon disabused of this notion, and had their fingers badly burned by the shrewds who were taking their inflated price offerings.
The fact that on-course bookmakers Back at Betfair after Laying on course should tell you all about the "Laying on Betfair" pipedream.

All of this is irrelevant , of course, if you have an otherwise undiscovered angle -- or have in your control a Bot that can Lay a fullgreen book across a market when the overround is 140% many hours (or days) before the Off rather than Lay in the usual 101% book ten minutes before the betting suspends.
 
icebreaker said:
All of this is irrelevant , of course, if you have an otherwise undiscovered angle -- or have in your control a Bot that can Lay a fullgreen book across a market when the overround is 140% many hours (or days) before the Off rather than Lay in the usual 101% book ten minutes before the betting suspends.
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Alternatively, you could confine your Laying activities to solely laying Gigilo's recommended trades -- and consequently draw-down a nice little regular dividend. :)
 
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icebreaker said:
How in the name of jaysus are they making a professional living backing elsewhere if they can't win backing at Betfair? (The odds to Back on Betfair are as-a-rule higher than the odds at a bookmaker, the racetrack or SP).
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You can only win if you take advantage of the market being wrong which usually is a long time before the off of an event. If I didn't back horses at early prices with bookmakers, I'd lose tens of thousands, as would most.
 
Ahh, will ya stop !
The world and his wife knows from bitter experience that an account will be closed faster than a woodpeckers blink by having just a pony on a horse at better than returned SP.
Consistently beating SP -- and by consistently I mean only twice or three times -- guarantees the dispatch of the inevitable "thanks-for-your-custom-but-" goodbye email. Pinnacle will entertain you but Lads, Will, VC, Boyles, Paddy and Stan just won't want to know you anymore.

The question remains: How do these professionals you know manage to make a professional living backing elsewhere if they can't win backing on Betfair? Please don't say that they are backing early doors at much higher odds with the Books -- because one cannot go to that well more than a couple of times before being gubbed.

Honestly, I'm not trying to be argumentative here but genuinely asking this as an individual who finds it difficult to get even small amounts on with those few bookmakers who haven't closed my accounts.
 
I'm not a big Betfair user but I've checked my last 3 months for Horse Racing:

Horse Racing: +€1,771.86

It's not hard is it?
 
SlimChance said:
I'm not a big Betfair user but I've checked my last 3 months for Horse Racing:

Horse Racing: +€1,771.86
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Probably coincidence .................... but wasn't it around 3 months ago that you began taking notice (and acting upon) Gigilo's trades? :lol:
 
SlimChance said:
I use Betfair to try and spin up a few quid. In general I would be more profitable if I never used Betfair because I lose my discipline. I find myself having an 'opinion' on races and events I would never dream of lodging money into a bookmaker account to bet on.
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This is the key for me. It's too easy to fritter away your bank having too many bets on BF. Logically there's no reason I should be less disciplined on BF, but I certainly am.
 
I only have recently started to dabble on Betfair... the market liquidity for Irish Racing gives you a 7 or 8 minute window which generally doesn't suit me. Having to do seperate win and place betting is a pain and getting a bet on the place market can be difficult.
My mantra has always been no matter what the platform or bookie - take your winnings and withdraw immediately. My bank statements have done serious damage to the rainforests of the world and my bank manager must think I have five or six bets a day but if he adds up the debit and credit column he will smile.

It's way too easy to **** it back to them - take it and run. It's more difficult to go in and deposit again than fritter away a balance. For some reason it's easier to fritter on Betfair. I have never laid a horse in my life... If I'm pretty sure a skinny one is going to get beaten I try to find the one to beat it - probably old fashioned. Trading not for me either - I will cover a strong position with other bets to secure a profit when absolutely necessary.
 
Struggling with these book prices its almost as though they've employed compilers that know what they're doing:eek:,very few rick which has is strange as its been like this for a few week.Thats why no bets up ice,i've even been using betfair something i rarely do and seeing far bigger prices,hope this isn't on ongoing thing with the books.It maybe me targetting the wrong races but i don't think so,multiples and placepots for me for the immediate future!Hopefully normaluty will be resumed shortly as i'm getting very bored.:blink:
 
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