3.45 Doncaster - Saturday 28th March 2015:
Betway Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+):
First run at Doncaster in 1965 when Lincoln Racecourse closed, the Lincoln Handicap (formerly known as the Lincolnshire Handicap) dates back to 1849 when it was run over two miles in August. The race was first run over a mile in March in 1859 and has remained that way ever since. With the exception of Lincoln and Doncaster it has been hosted by four other racetracks. Pontefract was used from 1943 to 1945 and Lingfield was the venue in 1916. During the redevelopment of Doncaster, Redcar held the race in 2006 and Newcastle the following year. Due to the First World War there were no renewals in either 1917 and 1918. There have only been two dual winners of this race (Ob, 1906 and 1907 and Babur, 1957 and 1958). No horse has won the race twice since it moved to Doncaster. Since 1965, Paul Cole has been the most successful winning Trainer with three victories while Jimmy Fortune has the best Jockey record, also winning three times. Jimmy Quin has won it twice.
Nowadays the Lincoln Handicap is known as the annual cavalry charge that signals the flat season has well and truly arrived. Twenty two runners take their place and the field is made up of horses making their seasonal reappearances, those coming here on the back of a Winter campaign, or a prep. run, on the A/W or some who have taken in the Carnival at Meydan. Like many big handicaps the race tends to suit a certain type of horse so trends from previous renewals are always worth noting, although they should be used as a guide rather than a gospel.
Trends: (last ten years)
Winners have been aged 4 (four times), 5 (three times) and 6 (three times) from a near 80% representation. This year 15 of the 22 (68%) are aged 4 to 6. Only one horse over six has won this race in the past two decades. (Tres Coronas, Boom Or Bust and Don't Call Me are 8, Bertiewhittle, Jack's Revenge, Belgian Bill and Robert The Painter are 7)
Nine winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4, the other carried 8-4. The bottom weight in this year's race carries 8-10 and only the top four in the weights carry more than 9-4 (Bronze Angel, Ocean Tempest, Fire Ship and Mondialiste). Topweights (Bronze Angel) have only been placed in two renewals.
Eight winners were rated between 95 and 104, the other two 90 and 91. The bottom weight this season is rated 96 and only the top four at the head of the handicap (see above) are rated in excess of 104.
Eight winners had won a race worth at least £11000 (Zarwaan, Moohaarib, Emell, Jack's Revenge, Hillbilly Boy and Robert The Painter have not)
Seven winners were having their first run of the year (two of the other three had raced in Dubai), posted their highest RPR on either of their last two starts in this country, and had 15 or more starts to their name. (only Bronze Angel, Fire Ship, Jack's Revenge and Lincoln satisfy all three trends although Baraweez only falls down by two starts)
All ten had won in either Class 2 or 3 but no higher. Nine winners had 2 to 4 career victories, had won no more than three handicaps and had won over one mile plus, the exception being a horse who had finished runner up in the previous season's race. (only Gabrial's Kaka, Moohaarib, GM Hopkins, What About Carlo and Mange All satisfy all four criteria)
William Haggas (Mange All) has trained two winners and a place from four entries. Richard Fahey (Gabrial and Gabrial's Kaka) has had one winner and five place from 25 entries. John Ryan (Ocean Tempest) has had one winner from three entries and John Gosden (GM Hopkins) has had one winner from five entries. David Barron (Tres Coronas and Bertiewhittle) and David O'Meara (Mondialiste and Robert The Painter) have seen two of their five entries place. Kevin Ryan, Dandy Nicholls and Richard Hannon haven't managed even a place from 11, 10 and 4 entries respectively.
The draw doesn't show a strong bias but in the last four races to be run at Doncaster on soft ground the winner has been drawn in stall one to three. (Emell, Fire Ship and Belgian Bill).
Trends Summary (last ten years):
Looking at the trends from the past ten years a horse should ideally fit as many of the following as possible:
Aged 4 to 6
Carrying 8-9 to 9-4.
Officially Rated 95 to 104
Posted a career high RPR in one of it's last two starts
Won over one mile plus
Having it's first race of the year, unless it has been to Dubai.
Has two to four career victories.
Has won a handicap but no more than three.
Previously won at Class 2 or 3 level but no higher.
Has won a race worth at least £11000.
Trained by William Haggas, Richard Fahey, John Gosden, John Ryan, David Barron or David O'Meara.
If the ground is soft or worse, drawn in stalls 1 to 3.
Selections:
The great imponderable with selecting a horse days before the event is the weather. The going has eased with rain on Thursday and is currently Good to Soft, Good in places. There isn't much rain predicted through today/tonight but there is light rain forecast during tomorrow morning/afternoon. Whether the ground slows further is obviously dependent on how much rain falls but it's not predicted to be heavy and, with mild temperatures, it's unlike to ease significantly (famous last words).
Moohaarib (Trained by Marco Botti, Ridden by Martin Harley, drawn in stall 19):
Moohaarib wasn't seen as a Juvenile and started his first season as a three year old last year over ten furlongs. A smooth travelling, long-striding Colt he dropped back to a mile for his third start and won that and his subsequent handicap debut over this C/D. His next race at Ascot saw him go down by just under three lengths to Mange All and he re-opposes that rival on four pounds better terms in this race, both have improved since. At that stage he held an entry into the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood but connections elected to take in a York handicap the day before and it resulted in a below par effort. He was given a short six week break subsequently and returned for two races in the Autumn. He won the first of them at Pontefract easier than the half length winning margin suggests and followed it with a second of five runners at Nottingham. He was beaten just under two lengths by the useful Baltic Knight and had GM Hopkins just over a length away in third. He re-opposes the latter on just one pound worse terms in this race. Moohaarib was last seen finishing fifth of fourteen runners in a Listed race on the polytrack at Dundalk in December. He has done most of his racing on good ground or faster but his two Autumn races came on G/S going so he has the ability to handle a bit of cut in the ground. Those races also suggested that he would be suited by a step back up in trip and that ability could hold him in good stead in a race which is traditionally run at a good gallop over this flat mile. His running style is suited to flat galloping tracks like this one and his progressive profile last season was supported by a fifteen pound rise in the handicap ranks. An Oasis Dream Colt out of a Selkirk Mare related to some classy winners, he was an expensive purchase who is already bordering on Listed/Group class. He is not very experienced for a race of this nature but, if he handles the occasion, he has most of the right attributes to get very competitive. The yard have a reasonable 13% strike rate st this track and their A/W horses are in good form.
Baraweez (Trained by Brian Ellison, ridden by Chris Hayes, drawn in stall 11):
Baraweez is a year older than Moohaarib but he also didn't race as a Juvenile and only had four outings as a three year old in France. A 340,000 Guineas purchase as a yearling, he was subsequently bought by current connections for 30,000 Guineas at the Tattersalls October Sales at Newmarket in October 2013. It has proved a very shrewd acquisition with Baraweez earning ~£150,000 in his nine races in Britain and Ireland. His mark increased by 23 pounds in a campaign which saw him win five times (demoted to second in one) and place in two others. He improved with almost every outing and ran to his best on ground from G/F through to soft and won over trips from 7 to 9 furlongs. His only real disappointment came in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day at Ascot when last seen and that re-iterated his Trainer's post-race concerns over the heavy ground. Having won five handicaps (including his demotion), he is a bit more exposed in this company than your typical winner of this race but those victories came from successive marks of 76, 79, 86, 91 and 96 in a space of seven races in which he was second and third in the other two. He only seems to just do what is required to get his head in front and it's possible he is still well weighted. He is a Cape Cross gelding out of a Saddler's Wells Mare who is related to some top class winners and he has a good blend of both speed and stamina, both useful assets in a race of this nature. The yard have a poor record at this track but they are capable of getting early season winners and they are 4 from 12 on the A/W this month.
Selections: (total outlay 4 pts)
Moohaarib - 1 pt e/w @ 14/1 (generally available)
Baraweez - 1 pt e/w @ 20/1 (genrally available)
Betway Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+):
First run at Doncaster in 1965 when Lincoln Racecourse closed, the Lincoln Handicap (formerly known as the Lincolnshire Handicap) dates back to 1849 when it was run over two miles in August. The race was first run over a mile in March in 1859 and has remained that way ever since. With the exception of Lincoln and Doncaster it has been hosted by four other racetracks. Pontefract was used from 1943 to 1945 and Lingfield was the venue in 1916. During the redevelopment of Doncaster, Redcar held the race in 2006 and Newcastle the following year. Due to the First World War there were no renewals in either 1917 and 1918. There have only been two dual winners of this race (Ob, 1906 and 1907 and Babur, 1957 and 1958). No horse has won the race twice since it moved to Doncaster. Since 1965, Paul Cole has been the most successful winning Trainer with three victories while Jimmy Fortune has the best Jockey record, also winning three times. Jimmy Quin has won it twice.
Nowadays the Lincoln Handicap is known as the annual cavalry charge that signals the flat season has well and truly arrived. Twenty two runners take their place and the field is made up of horses making their seasonal reappearances, those coming here on the back of a Winter campaign, or a prep. run, on the A/W or some who have taken in the Carnival at Meydan. Like many big handicaps the race tends to suit a certain type of horse so trends from previous renewals are always worth noting, although they should be used as a guide rather than a gospel.
Trends: (last ten years)
Winners have been aged 4 (four times), 5 (three times) and 6 (three times) from a near 80% representation. This year 15 of the 22 (68%) are aged 4 to 6. Only one horse over six has won this race in the past two decades. (Tres Coronas, Boom Or Bust and Don't Call Me are 8, Bertiewhittle, Jack's Revenge, Belgian Bill and Robert The Painter are 7)
Nine winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4, the other carried 8-4. The bottom weight in this year's race carries 8-10 and only the top four in the weights carry more than 9-4 (Bronze Angel, Ocean Tempest, Fire Ship and Mondialiste). Topweights (Bronze Angel) have only been placed in two renewals.
Eight winners were rated between 95 and 104, the other two 90 and 91. The bottom weight this season is rated 96 and only the top four at the head of the handicap (see above) are rated in excess of 104.
Eight winners had won a race worth at least £11000 (Zarwaan, Moohaarib, Emell, Jack's Revenge, Hillbilly Boy and Robert The Painter have not)
Seven winners were having their first run of the year (two of the other three had raced in Dubai), posted their highest RPR on either of their last two starts in this country, and had 15 or more starts to their name. (only Bronze Angel, Fire Ship, Jack's Revenge and Lincoln satisfy all three trends although Baraweez only falls down by two starts)
All ten had won in either Class 2 or 3 but no higher. Nine winners had 2 to 4 career victories, had won no more than three handicaps and had won over one mile plus, the exception being a horse who had finished runner up in the previous season's race. (only Gabrial's Kaka, Moohaarib, GM Hopkins, What About Carlo and Mange All satisfy all four criteria)
William Haggas (Mange All) has trained two winners and a place from four entries. Richard Fahey (Gabrial and Gabrial's Kaka) has had one winner and five place from 25 entries. John Ryan (Ocean Tempest) has had one winner from three entries and John Gosden (GM Hopkins) has had one winner from five entries. David Barron (Tres Coronas and Bertiewhittle) and David O'Meara (Mondialiste and Robert The Painter) have seen two of their five entries place. Kevin Ryan, Dandy Nicholls and Richard Hannon haven't managed even a place from 11, 10 and 4 entries respectively.
The draw doesn't show a strong bias but in the last four races to be run at Doncaster on soft ground the winner has been drawn in stall one to three. (Emell, Fire Ship and Belgian Bill).
Trends Summary (last ten years):
Looking at the trends from the past ten years a horse should ideally fit as many of the following as possible:
Aged 4 to 6
Carrying 8-9 to 9-4.
Officially Rated 95 to 104
Posted a career high RPR in one of it's last two starts
Won over one mile plus
Having it's first race of the year, unless it has been to Dubai.
Has two to four career victories.
Has won a handicap but no more than three.
Previously won at Class 2 or 3 level but no higher.
Has won a race worth at least £11000.
Trained by William Haggas, Richard Fahey, John Gosden, John Ryan, David Barron or David O'Meara.
If the ground is soft or worse, drawn in stalls 1 to 3.
Selections:
The great imponderable with selecting a horse days before the event is the weather. The going has eased with rain on Thursday and is currently Good to Soft, Good in places. There isn't much rain predicted through today/tonight but there is light rain forecast during tomorrow morning/afternoon. Whether the ground slows further is obviously dependent on how much rain falls but it's not predicted to be heavy and, with mild temperatures, it's unlike to ease significantly (famous last words).
Moohaarib (Trained by Marco Botti, Ridden by Martin Harley, drawn in stall 19):
Moohaarib wasn't seen as a Juvenile and started his first season as a three year old last year over ten furlongs. A smooth travelling, long-striding Colt he dropped back to a mile for his third start and won that and his subsequent handicap debut over this C/D. His next race at Ascot saw him go down by just under three lengths to Mange All and he re-opposes that rival on four pounds better terms in this race, both have improved since. At that stage he held an entry into the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood but connections elected to take in a York handicap the day before and it resulted in a below par effort. He was given a short six week break subsequently and returned for two races in the Autumn. He won the first of them at Pontefract easier than the half length winning margin suggests and followed it with a second of five runners at Nottingham. He was beaten just under two lengths by the useful Baltic Knight and had GM Hopkins just over a length away in third. He re-opposes the latter on just one pound worse terms in this race. Moohaarib was last seen finishing fifth of fourteen runners in a Listed race on the polytrack at Dundalk in December. He has done most of his racing on good ground or faster but his two Autumn races came on G/S going so he has the ability to handle a bit of cut in the ground. Those races also suggested that he would be suited by a step back up in trip and that ability could hold him in good stead in a race which is traditionally run at a good gallop over this flat mile. His running style is suited to flat galloping tracks like this one and his progressive profile last season was supported by a fifteen pound rise in the handicap ranks. An Oasis Dream Colt out of a Selkirk Mare related to some classy winners, he was an expensive purchase who is already bordering on Listed/Group class. He is not very experienced for a race of this nature but, if he handles the occasion, he has most of the right attributes to get very competitive. The yard have a reasonable 13% strike rate st this track and their A/W horses are in good form.
Baraweez (Trained by Brian Ellison, ridden by Chris Hayes, drawn in stall 11):
Baraweez is a year older than Moohaarib but he also didn't race as a Juvenile and only had four outings as a three year old in France. A 340,000 Guineas purchase as a yearling, he was subsequently bought by current connections for 30,000 Guineas at the Tattersalls October Sales at Newmarket in October 2013. It has proved a very shrewd acquisition with Baraweez earning ~£150,000 in his nine races in Britain and Ireland. His mark increased by 23 pounds in a campaign which saw him win five times (demoted to second in one) and place in two others. He improved with almost every outing and ran to his best on ground from G/F through to soft and won over trips from 7 to 9 furlongs. His only real disappointment came in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day at Ascot when last seen and that re-iterated his Trainer's post-race concerns over the heavy ground. Having won five handicaps (including his demotion), he is a bit more exposed in this company than your typical winner of this race but those victories came from successive marks of 76, 79, 86, 91 and 96 in a space of seven races in which he was second and third in the other two. He only seems to just do what is required to get his head in front and it's possible he is still well weighted. He is a Cape Cross gelding out of a Saddler's Wells Mare who is related to some top class winners and he has a good blend of both speed and stamina, both useful assets in a race of this nature. The yard have a poor record at this track but they are capable of getting early season winners and they are 4 from 12 on the A/W this month.
Selections: (total outlay 4 pts)
Moohaarib - 1 pt e/w @ 14/1 (generally available)
Baraweez - 1 pt e/w @ 20/1 (genrally available)
