Lincoln

M

Marb

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Mar 8, 2016
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There's a declaration stage tomorrow.

I did research on the most valuable flat handicaps last season. Many winners won after showing improved form after being gelded.

Like any trend, there's always exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking, the amount of horses that were beaten in maiden/novice races, often at short odds, then going on to win big handicaps, was very eye-catching.

There seems to be one qualifier in the Lincoln next Saturday, which is Salute The Solider.

His form has picked up in handicaps after the operation.
 
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Won last night or was it Fri night - prefer to get a few weeks form gathering b4 indulging on the flat bud. AW form rarely translates

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Tiny Clanger said:
Won last night or was it Fri night - prefer to get a few weeks form gathering b4 indulging on the flat bud. AW form rarely translates

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Or could it be disguising his true ability? So a win or be pulled up job, perhaps? :)
 
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Not in either. Nevermind. In the Spring Mile Petrus has recently had the gelding operation, I think I'll back him.
 
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Marble said:
Not in either. Nevermind. In the Spring Mile Petrus has recently had the gelding operation, I think I'll back him.
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I backed Petrus and gulf of poets for the Lincoln.so I suppose I will have to do them in the spring mile.
 
My first (but not necessarily main) bet in the Lincoln is Great Prospector (40/1). He took in the Dewhurst as a juvenile and started his 3yo season off 106 but a moderate year has seen him drop to 97. Fahey has two declared from three likely to make the cut and I wonder if Gabrial was redirected to the Mile to make way for this fellow. Paul Hanagan takes the ride so that's hardly a negative. I'll copy this to the longshot thread.
 
Outsider said:
I backed Petrus and gulf of poets for the Lincoln.so I suppose I will have to do them in the spring mile.
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Al Jellaby is the main danger. I considered him, but Petrus looks to have equally as good a chance and is a slightly bigger price.
 
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Humbert in the Lincoln for me. He has come on leaps and bounds since the all important gelding operation, still looks on a winning mark to me.
 
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Humbert is on my radar.

The slight worry is that he has changed stables without changing owners, which begs the question why. Hugo Palmer is no mug trainer. Then again, going to O'Meara would hardly be a negative in terms of this race given he has sent a couple of emergent G1 horses to it in recent years and Nolan looks the main jockey with Tudhope in Dubai.
 
Sometimes you just have to ignore the form book.

I wouldn't put a specific figure on the number of hours I spent on the Lincoln form. I ran off my copy of the field at the 5-day stage down to number 40. If I spent on average five minutes per horse, we're talking almost three and a half hours on one race. It was probably more than that, though, as I started on it around 11.30am and finished later in the evening although I tend to do about an hour then break off to watch TV etc.

At the end of the day I wondered had I wasted the day. To be honest, I wondered beforehand if I'd be wasting my time. Hopefully Great Prospector (best 22/1 this morning, by the way) will at least place and get me a return but the truth is I suspect the favourite Auxerre might just pish in.

For years I've done well keeping onside Godolphin runners in the big handicaps, not necessarily because they're well-handicapped on the basis of my form study but because the operation tends to identify quite early on the right type for a given race and campaign it accordingly.

Obviously they won't be the only ones doing it but they are pretty successful at it.

So while Auxerre actually sits at the bottom of my ratings table I'll be backing him as my main bet in the belief that 4/1 will probably be value after all. Godolphin would not be running him in this race off 100 if they didn't think he was at least a 115-120 horse already.

(Sits back awaiting a faceful of egg....)
 
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Ripp Orf is top on my ratings but I took the view that this is his prep for the Victoria Cup. Your take on the prep is interesting but I'm already committed to a couple of bets in the Lincoln.
 
Al Kherb landed some nice bets at Catterick winning by an easy 4 lengths. I am told he has thrived since so no quams about going to Ascot and the dosh will be on again
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sometimes you just have to ignore the form book.

... but the truth is I suspect the favourite Auxerre might just pish in.
...

So while Auxerre actually sits at the bottom of my ratings table I'll be backing him as my main bet in the belief that 4/1 will probably be value after all. Godolphin would not be running him in this race off 100 if they didn't think he was at least a 115-120 horse already.
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As I was saying...

:)
 
Gobsmackingly, the handicapper has only raised Auxerre 7lbs for his demolition job.

Last year he raised Addeybb 10lbs (to 109) before putting him up to his true level of 117 after he followed up in the Sandown Mile.

I reckon Auxerre is in the same ball-park so I now wonder if Godolphin will keep him back for the Hunt Cup. He might be a good thing off 107 as he could easily find a further chunk of improvement by mid-June.
 
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