Lingfield 23/2

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stodge

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Tomorrow sees Lingfield’s equivalent of “Trials Day” with the feature event being the trial for the Winter Derby itself.

Here, as always, are my early thoughts on the afternoon’s action:

Race one is a 3-y-o maiden over a mile and a half. This is a long way for immature horses in late February so stamina will be at a premium. ALWAYS BOLD ran well on his debut and shaped as though the extra two furlongs wouldn’t be a problem. DUBAI’S WONDER was well down the field in a backend Newmarket maiden and will have to improve while RED LINNET also shaped well on her debut over ten furlongs. The Chapple-Hyam Debutante, MARIA DI SCOZIA, is related to winners over shorter distances and unless there is market support, I’d rather be with one of those that has had a run.

Race two is a handicap over a mile and five furlongs. Top weight is WAIT FOR THE WILL and he’s a standing dish here. He ran perfectly well last time over CD but may be vulnerable to one of the younger runners stepping up in trip. JAGO couldn’t quite cope with course specialist Kindlelight Blue last time but this is a shade easier. RESPLENDENT ACE scrambled home at Kempton last time but this looks tougher while I doubt if LITTLE RICHARD and BIENHEUREUX have the pace. I’m more interested in LORDSWOOD at the bottom of the handicap. He was well held by the improving Safari Sundowner the other day but gets weight from the principles and could be worth an e/w investment.

Race three is a five-furlong handicap. I saw FROMSONG and JUDGE ‘N JURY win here a fortnight ago and while the latter only won a maiden, he did it well. These two are likely to be with the pace throughout but it’s not going to be easy for the former from the outside stall. HALSION CHARMER is interesting back at this trip.

Race four is a Listed event over six furlongs. BONUS is arguably the class act but in a field full of CD winners, this looks very trappy. CEREMONIAL JADE won a warm handicap over CD in November while KOSTAR won the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon, which is always a very competititive handicap. He’s not, to my knowledge run on the AW and there has to be the worry he will need the race. EVENS AND ODDS is possibly better at Southwell while BABY STRANGE hasn’t been seen since the autumn of 2006. I’m interested in CD winner EBRAAM. Last time, over five furlongs, it all happened too quickly and back at this distance, he could be the one.

Race five is the afternoon’s feature, the Winter Derby Trial, a Listed contest over a mile and a quarter. The usual mix of AW performers and classy runners who have yet to prove they can match turf form on the Polytrack. GRAND PASSION is one of the best horses ever to run on the surface and always gives his best – in December; he narrowly failed against the 2007 Winter Derby winner, Gentlemen’s Deal. DANSANT bolted up over a mile and a half at Kempton but it’s hard to know how this race will pan out. SRI DIAMOND is of course a former Winter Derby winner but hasn’t been out since a slightly disappointing run at Kempton in April. Of the others, DUBAI’S TOUCH represents some serious form including his last effort when fourth to Linngari in a Group 1 in Italy. If he improves for the surface, he’s bound to go close. I prefer the likes of FAJR and CAPRICORN RUN over a mile while DREAM LODGE ran a blinder over CD two weeks ago. This is a step up but he ran well in Listed company at Kempton. VOLIERE is entitled to finish close to GRAND PASSION nut of those at bigger prices; I’d be interested in YARQUS, who ran well in the Cambridgeshire. Form in that race often translates well to the Winter Derby.

Race six is a seven-furlong handicap. This looks hugely trappy with a clutch of horses closely matched. WATERSIDE is best known at this distance on grass though he has won at further on the Polytrack. ORPSIE BOY is a consistent type but is better known at shorter trips, as is FYODOR. ATLANTIC STORY, on the other hand, is probably better known as a miler. KING OF DIXIE won a maiden at Kempton over this trip but this is much tougher. At bigger odds, I’m interested in QADAR, who has mainly campaigned over shorter but is a CD winner and his last run at Kempton suggested a move back up to this trip would happen. He may be worth an e/w investment.

Race seven is a mile Conditions race. JACK SULLIVAN and VORTEX have returned from Dubai where things didn’t perhaps go exactly to plan. I’m not sure if this will be a tactical race – I suspect not with MONKEY GLAS in the field. ALFRESCO holds MONKEY GLAS on recent form but I just doubt him holding VORTEX if the latter is back on song.

Selections at this time are:

2.00: ALWAYS BOLD
2.35: LORDSWOOD (e/w)
3.10: JUDGE ‘N JURY
3.45: EBRAAM (nap)
4.15: GRAND PASSION
4.45: QADAR (e/w)
5.10: VORTEX

I’ll post a review tomorrow evening.
 
Looks a cracking card. Hard to know what to expect from Dubai's Wonder in the first but Always Bold is sure to be suited by the step up in trip. He'd probably have got closer to the first 2 last time had things panned out better for him. Red Linnet is the one with the best form in the book but I'm puzzled by the step up in trip and think 2f less may suit her better for the time bieng.

I agree with RP spotlight in the sprint that Merlins Dancer looks very interesting. He has a good record fresh and his only win last season was first time out over course and distance off a higher mark. Seb Sanders has a good record for the yard and he's by far the best drawn of the pace horses to make all.

Bonus looks like getting the listed 6f race run to suit but at 7/4 is far too short to back given how much luck he tends to need in running.

In the Winter Derby Trial I thought Dubai's Touch was very interesting. He's 3 out of 3 in listed company and will find this assignement easier than the Group races he was contesting at the back end of last year. His pedigree gives plenty of encouragement that he'll stay 10f and as one of only 2 front runners in the race (Dream Lodge the other) he looks likely to get the race run to suit.
 
I'm getting into this All weather racing now, am learning more about it and enjooy reading these posts. Haven't got time to post all the whys and wherefores so this is going to be one of those fairly meaningless posts with not much reasoning.

3.10L Merlins Dancer
3.25L With Bonus now having trouble in running the last twice, I can't back him from Draw 1. Ceremonial Jade for me, whose best 2 runs have come since the cheekpieces were applied.
4.15L Dansant
5.10L Alfresco NAP. I should have won more than I did last week but I was worried about his draw (12 of 12). His record over 1 mile at Lingfield is 11141 and it may have been 11111 if he hadn't been stopped in his run when 4th.

9.20 W Global Traffic
 
Ian

the form break for Alfresco over C/D is indeed impressive...he will need a strong pace which hopefully Monkey Glas will again supply...looks a good bet at the prices..the days best bet as you point out
 
I must be missing something because I can't see which piece of form buts Alfresco within 3 lengths of either Jack Sullivan or Vortex.
 
King Orchisios in the 3.45 in worth a punt @ 12/1.

Won this race first time out last year and has beaten Bonus in receipt of 3 pounds before. He also has a couple of pounds in hand on a few of these on official figures.

One negative is the draw.
 
I tried to post this last evening without success so here goes:

I feel I should start by apologising for last night’s preview and I sincerely hope no one followed it. I had to be carried out of Lingfield this afternoon suffering from a severe financial haemorrhage and severely bruised wallet.

Anyway, I’ve jotted a few notes on the day’s action so I hope we can all glean something of value from the day.

The opening race was a 3-y-o maiden over a mile and a half. The two who had shown promise on their AW debuts dominated the market: - ALWAYS BOLD (backed from 2s to 5/4) and RED LINNET. They also dominated the business end of the race and it was the filly RED LINNET who showed the better speed to score. She did it well but 3-y-o handicaps over a mile and a half aren’t plentiful so she may have to wait for the turf campaign. ALWAYS BOLD made the running and with hindsight Neil Callan might have opted not to slow the pace in the middle of the race, as the colt seems woefully one paced. I wonder if I’ve seen a contender for the 2009 Triumph Hurdle. DUBAI’S WONDER was well held in third but showed some ability.

Race two was a handicap over a mile and five furlongs. The market spoke in favour of the former November Handicap winner RED WINE, who was backed from 6s to 7/2 but this was a tactical race and the resulting three-furlong sprint didn’t play to his strengths. LITTLE RICHARD led into the home straight where JAGO made a strong run down the outside but ROLLIN ‘N’ TUMBLIN got the run up the rail and just got home in the final fifty yards to score. JAGO was just held in second with RED WINE finishing best in third. WAIT FOR THE WILL and LORDSWOOD were well off the pace and completely wrong footed by the way the race panned out.

Race three was a five-furlong handicap. The market got it right this time with support for HALSION CHANCER rewarded close home in a bunch finish. MERLINS DANCER and JUDGE N JURY went hard from the start but the latter was beaten off the home turn while MERLINS DANCER got tired in the last hundred yards. HALSION CHANCER came from just off the pace to score while FROMSONG came from further back down the outside to snatch second on the post. FROMSONG wasn’t helped by the outside draw and ran a fine race.

Race four was a Listed contest over six furlongs. BONUS was the short priced favourite but the inside draw didn’t look ideal and so it proved as he soon got caught behind runners as MALTESE FALCON and EVENS AND ODDS made the running. On the home turn, none looked to be going better than CEREMONIAL JADE but it was EXCUSEZ MOI who came with a strong run from well off the pace to score readily. Whether the break helped or whether he improved from running on Polytrack I don’t know but Clive Brittain pulled off a similar coup with Highland Harvest a dew weeks ago and Clive remains one of the more astute trainers. On this evidence, EXCUSEZ MOI is worth a shot at Group 3 races. CEREMONIAL JADE did nothing wrong while BONUS couldn’t quicken when the gap appeared on the rail and is proving frustrating to follow at present.

Race five was a Listed race over a mile and a quarter, the trial for the Winter Derby. DANSANT was backed from 6/4 to 11/10 and duly landed the bets. Jamie Spencer gave him a terrific ride but had a degree of luck as, having been trapped in a wall of horses, found a way out without a lot of trouble. The race was tactical and they quickened through the last three furlongs. This didn’t help GRAND PASSION who was frankly disappointing and may now be on the downgrade. DANSART has won at up to a mile and seven but showed tactical speed here which means he looks bombproof whether the Winter Derby is tactical or an end-to-end gallop. DUBAI’S TOUCH ran a blinder and gave DANSART a real race before just going down in the last fifty yards. There’s every reason to suppose he will come on for the race and will be a factor in the big one in three weeks. The quality of the form is slightly diminished by the proximity of BAYLINI rated 93 and DREAM LODGE in fourth but I’m not convinced. DANSART is rated 114 and is clearly a useful sort and will give Silver Pivotal and the others a real race in the Winter Derby should connections decide to let him take his chance.

Race six was a seven-furlong handicap. KING OF DIXIE was withdrawn at the start having tried to break out from the front of the gates. MR LAMBROS was soon prominent from the outside draw and made a gallant attempt to make all. However, ATLANTIC STORY, who had sat just off the pace throughout, cut him down close home. ORPSIE BOY ran on too late for third, having been the subject of market support.

The last was a conditions race over a mile. This produced another virtuoso performance from Jamie Spencer who landed a treble on JACK SULLIVAN, supported in to even money. ALFRESCO did his best but couldn’t prevail even in receipt of 6lbs. VORTEX is arguably not as good as he was and was a shade disappointing while MONKEY GLAS set a reasonable pace before being headed in the final furlong. JACK SULLIVAN has been a marvellous servant for his connections and although his efforts in Dubai weren’t successful, he ran well in a Group 3 and was mixing it with a much stronger class of horse than he would meet at any Lingfield AW meeting.
 
Very interesting rundown Stodge, thanks for that.

Don't think you should crab Baylini that much - she's quite temperamental at home, but she's very talented - hasn't always showed her best for that reason but mainly because Jacqui tends to over-race her horses [imo, and that of a few trainers I know], good trainer tho she is.

Jack Sullivan is a remarkable horse and it says a lot for his grit and toughness that he can get off a plane from the desert and come straight out to win this. Most horses need weeks to acclimatise
 
Baylini has been a fantastoc servant to connections considering she cost just 800 gns as a foal. Butler was talking about going to Dubai next with Dansant, so I think it's more likely SIlver Pivotal will be his representative in the Winter Derby.

Agree with you regarding Always Bold in the first race. Considering the Bell filly was a doubtful stayer at 12f on pedigree it was a strange tactical call by Johnston/Callan.
 
Baylini is Jacqui's pride and joy - it will be interesting to see if she ever sells her! Talk about a hen with one chick... She's done very well with her and I'm really thrilled she got the black type at last. It must be immensely satisfying to pick out something as a foal at that price and to have the ride with her they have had. It's been a real family effort, too. Ive been there for two or three of her runs inc the first at Lingfield, got the photos somewhere...
 
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