Lingfield - 2nd Feb

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stodge

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I’m off to Lingfield tomorrow for an afternoon’s AW racing so, as I have a few minutes in hand, I thought I’d post a quick preview with my early thoughts.

The opener is an Apprentices’ handicap over seven furlongs. There’s probably not too much to get excited about here. FOLLOW THE KING beat Crimson Fern the other day and the latter is a pretty good yardstick in this grade albeit over a furlong shorter. I’m more interested in CONVIVIAL SPIRIT, who has form at a slightly higher grade and is also a CD winner. He was third to Regal Raider in a Class 5 CD handicap in December and that reads ok in this race.

Race 2 is a seller over a mile. Just three go to post here so I suspect many will be heading indoors to keep warm or grab a late lunch. It’s a long way from the Linda Perratt yard at Ayr down to east Surrey and I just prefer DEFI to DUSHSTORM as the former ran in a better contest at Wolverhampton. That said, DUSHSTORM is a CD winner and receiving weight so he’s probably the percentage call but at the likely odds, I would be happy to oppose.

Race 3 is a handicap over a mile and a quarter. This is a Class 4 event and not a bad race. Top weight NORTHERN SPY is lightly raced and ran well when second at Kempton in December. He could easily outclass these but faces a couple of useful opponents. One is ART MAN, who came from a maiden, the form of which has worked out very well, to win a similar race to this the other day. This does look a shade tougher to me but he’s improving and gets 4 lbs from the top weight. I’m also interested in the other two CD winners, MATARAM and more especially FUSILI who ran very well when sixth to Silver Pivotal last Saturday. A reproduction of that effort would put him right in the mix.

Race 4 is one of the two feature races, a Class 2 handicap over a mile and a half. This has attracted a small but interesting group. Three of the runners met in a similar race in early January when MILLVILLE beat POLISH POWER with INVASIAN last of four. On the weights, POLISH POWER has a big chance of reversing the placings but it rarely works out that way and MILLVILLE is a useful sort in this grade. Two others who crossed swords last month were WICKED DAZE and SGT SCHULTZ. WICKED DAZE won a lower-grade mile and a half handicap but SGT SCHULTZ has a 5 lb turn round for two lengths, which should be decisive. In addition, SGT SCHULTZ ran a stormer behind Silver Pivotal last Saturday showing him to be as effective in a true-run ten furlong race as he is in a more tactical twelve furlong event. That said, he is effectively on level weights with POLISH POWER and I can’t see him beating that old rival on these terms.

Race 5 is the afternoon’s other feature; a Class 2 handicap over five furlongs. The question is whether the real speedballs will be able to hold off those that have to come from off the pace. With the wind likely to be behind the runners up the straight, I wouldn’t want my choice to be too far off the speed on the home turn. MAGIC GLADE has the one stall and goes from the front but he will need to be at his very best to win this. I’m more interested in SILVER PRELUDE from the two stall who is a CD winner and didn’t get home behind Bonus over a furlong further at Kempton last time. He is from the Ivory yard, which does so well with sprinters. It may all happen a bit too quick for the likes of FYODOR and EBRAAM while JOHNSTOWN LAD is a fascinating Irish raider as it gives us a rare chance to compare Lingfield and Dundalk form. I also love MALTESE FALCON and these are his optimum conditions but I am concerned by a slow start last time. My idea of the winner at this stage is to go each-way on SILVER PRELUDE.

Race 6 is a maiden for 3-y-o over five furlongs. Peter Grayson trains seven of the ten runners but none of them look any good and neither do PREMIER YANK and CAPRICCIOSO so that leaves the Barry Hills runner ALLIUM and the booking of Jamie Spencer takes the eye while she is apparently related to a host of winners albeit at further. I don’t see this as a race for backing and laying – more a race for lying down and avoiding. Unless the market speaks volumes about anything, it’s probably wisest to grab a coffee and a bun.

The closing event is a seven-furlong maiden. Last Saturday, the one 4-y-o beat all his younger rivals but FILM QUEEN was beaten a long way on debut so I’ll be looking at the younger contingent. Four have run and while SCOTS W’HAE looks poor, ALWAYS CERTAIN ran well in a fair York maiden and should improve for the extra furlong. LIBERTY VALANCE was arguably a shade disappointing at Wolverhampton while MICHAELS BOY will need to show improvement to figure though that’s not impossible for one from the Boyle stable. Of the two newcomers, much the more interesting is MASLAHA who is a well-related Selkirk filly. The market will need to be watched and I don’t think this is an easy task for a debutante.

Anyway, selections at this stage are:

1.10: CONVIVIAL SPIRIT
1.40: DEFI
2.15 FUSILI
2.45: POLISH POWER
3.20: SILVER PRELUDE (e/w)
3.50: no bet
4.25: ALWAYS CERTAIN

I’ll post a review tomorrow evening or Sunday morning.
 
I doubt very much that Grayson will run all seven.

Fyodor would be my tentative selection for the sprint but he has often promised more than he has delivered.
 
Premier Yank looks the one to be on tentatively in the maiden I think. It's worth looking at his Bath run in more detail before writing him off as no good. He badly missed the break, pulled far too hard, and then when it looked like he'd run on to finish a promising fifth or sixth, he was badly stopped in his tracks, the rider then letting him come home in his own time. Unless the Barry Hills horse is above average, he's not renowned for introducing really promising newcomers in all-weather maidens, I expect Premier Yank could start favourite. If he's anything like the 4/1 the Racing Post forecast suggests, then lump on. Similarly the Moore horse is bred to be far more effectoive at this trip than the 7f he ran over on debut so should also do better.

Agree with what it says in the Post regarding Silver Prelude in the sprint. For some reason this 7yo is clearly better than ever of late and he looks potentially very well treated off 85. He's very well drawn to make the running and his claimer is decent value for taking off another 3 lb conisdering he's such an uncomplicated point and shoot ride. Drop to 5f looks the icing on the cake.

Wicked Daze looks to make the market nicely for Sgt Schultz in the 12f handicap. Really like the Sgt, he's one you can set your watch by around here and there was lots to like about the Silver Pivotal run, particularly how he kept on well after getting outpaced. He returns to his optimum trip. He's best held up and there are enough in there to make it a decent test, with Jon Terry and Invasian likely to take each other on. I'll have to have a few quid on Kames Park if he's anything like the 25's forecast. He very much lost his way for Semple last year and showed nothing in 2 starts for Mrs H. Graham but the Semple/Perratt team are going well and Kames Park likes it round here, winning on both starts, doing well both times to come from the rear in steadily run races. He's back down to the mark he last won off and he's too dangerously well handicapped to ignore completely.

Have a good afternoon.
 
I've heard a very strong word for Syl Kirk's Liberty Valance in the last. A friend of mine has been asked to back it by a well known ex-footballer who is friendly with the trainer. Nudge nudge, wink wink.....say no more guv...... :what:
 
Thanks for the comments, David. I hadn't seen the RP comments when I put up my earlier contribution. That first maiden still doesn't look like a race I want to get involved with but the market will doubtless speak volumes.

Agree re: SILVER PRELUDE. My only fear is that he'll get into a dual with MAGIC GLADE and go too fast.

To be honest, the mile and a half handicap is the race of the day as far as I'm concerned. I note your comments re: KAMES PARK and he may well be worth e/w support if they all run but SGT SCHULTZ and POLISH POWER look the two for me.
 
Interesting comments Rory regarding Liberty Valance. He was well punted in a weak race on his debut but next time was the drifter in one of those races where it looks a 2 horse event and the one that wins is usually the one that is backed at any price. On both occasions he's raced freely and found little. Looks a weak race tomorrow but I'll be against him back up to 7f. He looks to me as though he'd be a really good horse on the gallops but as of yet he's not done it on the track.

Off to watch Derrin Brown now anyway to guarantee I don't lose tomorrow!
 
Sara Moore wasn't very bullish about either Sgt Schultz or Polish Power in the yard newsletter this week. Nothing to choose on jockey bookings - Tolley Dean is this year's apprentice, Liam was the one before. They are a bit miffed Sgt S has been put up in the weights for his 3rd lto.
 
I hope it doesn't - I love the horse! - just advising a bit of caution as the yard aren't usually slow to say if they think a horse has a good chance. Having two in the race complicates it of course - and Sara is always much more cautious than Stan :rolleyes: I've followed them both for a long time and find it very hard to split them


Ed: the two horses that is, not Stan and Sara :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
 
My thought on SGT SCHULTZ after last week is that he is a better horse in a true-run 10-furlong race (the time was only just over 2 min 4 secs which is very decent) than a tactical 12-furlong affair.

Last Saturday's race was a serious event - I rate SILVER PIVOTAL and she is now going to be in the low 100s while I know Gary Moore rates ALPES MARITIMES very highly.

I just think tomorrow's race may be a true-run event and that, to me, plays to the strengths of POLISH POWER and MILLVILLE who are proper stayers.
 
I backed Silver Pivotal in the race [3rd].
The only one of the Moores' three I backed today was Emma Jean Lad - 2nd :(

I only had a few bets today, all win bets on BF, very conservative for me on a Saturday!
I had a winner with The T'other One - - all the rest excl Silver Pivotal were 2nd :what:
[the others being: Almaydan, Art Man, The Market Man, Ringaroses & Burntoakboy]
 
Originally posted by rorydelargy@Feb 1 2008, 08:40 PM
I've heard a very strong word for Syl Kirk's Liberty Valance in the last. A friend of mine has been asked to back it by a well known ex-footballer who is friendly with the trainer. Nudge nudge, wink wink.....say no more guv...... :what:
Click to expand...
nice one
 
Johnstown Lad, 2nd to Ebraam in the sprint, probably cost me over half a million. I had several big scoop 6 comhinations and going into that leg there was only 7 tickets on JL, 3 of which were mine. Almost certainly the other 4 would be part of a combo which would have them spread over the last race, so probably I would have shared the million plus pot and there would have been only 2 of us going for the half million bonus. As it was, my other combos gave me seven tickets going onto the last leg and unfortunately the jolly won. The 2nd or 3rd would've got me almost 3 times as much. The win along with the glut of place dividends and a 20% bonus from bet 365 returned me 68K but I did stake 17K and hedged 15K on betfair. Deduct another 15K lost the previous week on scoop 6 and jackpot rollovers and it doesn't amount to a lot. Exciting stuff though.
 
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