Longchamps sunday

sunybay

sunybay

At the Start
Joined
May 4, 2003
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Madrid
Good card as always
Marcel Boussac looks a very good race


PRix Jean Luc Legarde
the spanish horse is well regarded here, can run a good race

Opera
disappoinnting field with romantica and The fugue out
Tasaday looks the one


La Foret
Moonlight and Byron good clash
 
Maarek could be the one in Abbaye.
They have waited all year for soft ground and should not have won at Newbury the last day he was baulked so much.
Gordon Lord Byron may do Moonlight on ground.
Haya Landa a sneaky ew in Arc to better 4th of last year!
 
LUKE said:
Strongly fancy Gordon Lord Byron-form is there for everyone to see and this is his time of year.
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Indeed. Only thing it is 4 - 6 pounds shy of Moonlight Cloud's own form.
 
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Abadie really difficult one.


Boussac
Lesstalkinparis is the one I like but being by capé cross some doubts about the ground.


Grand criterium
Nothing of interest at the prices, its between karakonite , the spanish horse and ballydoyles.


Arc
Orfevre to beat the field in style, kizuna running on for second.


Moonlight cloud is an odds on chance for me.


Cadran
Les beauf a should be favorite and tac de buitrón the main danger.
 
sunybay said:
Lesstalkinparis is the one I like but being by capé cross some doubts about the ground.
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I like Lesstalkinparis and Maarek.

Pirika's run well once or twice and outdone its odds before in valuable races, worth a saver in the Arc.
 
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Tend to see things very much like Suny. Most of those are on my shortlist.

Only difference is the Arc. I can see Leading Light doing a Westerner. With Ruler of the World being the one to capitalise.
 
Imo, Gordon Lord Byron will just set the race up for Moonlight Cloud, and she'll do him for a turn of foot. Looks a rock solid f/c though.
Jwala probably didn't get the credit she deserved for her Nunthorpe win, and though the ground might not have been ideal for Shea Shea and Sole Power, she beat Hamish McGonagall fair and square, and he'd placed in the previous 2 editions. Has the pace to lie up from her prime draw, and enough toe to fight off challenges in the closing stages.
 
I thought Ballesteros ran a better race last time and has a previous 4th in this to his name, at 25/1 4 places I think that's reasonable.
 
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Hamm said:
You could find a stat for and against every horse in every race.
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some pass them all..i know what you mean though

i checked back a bit on this one..since 1990 ..just 2 horses have defied the stat

i was thinking that a horse at this price needs all the stats in its favour..if it were a 7/1 shot or summat i'd chance it
 
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also from a form perspective for a horse that is very consistent has been beaten the 3 times its run later than September in the year

for a horse trading at 1.8 those are a couple of negatives for me..so have to lay it

also :)..wins 3 races a year max..so has its quota this year
 
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Hamm said:
I'd prefer form, conditions, opposition etc in its favour than a stat though.
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The best stats are ones that have logical pointers to all of them. Like Arkle winners/runner's up having great records in the following year's QM.
 
MC is like at least half a stone better than the average Foret winner. It's not really enough of a reason to take her on.
 
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