Losing runs
- Thread starter fonz
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Desert Orchid
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I tend to keep my focus on the big picture. I've been healthily ahead for a long time so I know I'm doing something right, so tend to stick with what has been working for me. If I come across something that can improve things - eg intelligent interpretation of sectionals - I can adopt and adapt but there's no substitute for simply keeping working at it.
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SlimChance
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You'll always run bad at some stage. I'm currently on a horrendous run and have had some monster paydays hit the crossbar. You just keeping going. Take a week off and start again. There is no shame in going broke, its happened to the cleverest of punters.
Once you're doing the right things you'll come good. I had a good bet on that Gud Day @ 7/2 on the other thread, it got beat but it was the right bet to have. Yesterday I backed horse e/w @ 25/1 in a dead 8 handicap, it SP'd at 13/2 hit 9/4 in running and was unplaced. You just keep going, the door will open eventually.
Once you're doing the right things you'll come good. I had a good bet on that Gud Day @ 7/2 on the other thread, it got beat but it was the right bet to have. Yesterday I backed horse e/w @ 25/1 in a dead 8 handicap, it SP'd at 13/2 hit 9/4 in running and was unplaced. You just keep going, the door will open eventually.
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SlimChance
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You shouldn't try to set goals, you should try to set out the kind of bets you're looking to place and the results will take care of themselves. I get caught pot hunting looking for 5 figure payouts when I could easily grind out 6-7% on turnover on the year.
Desert Orchid
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My bad run was in January - February just gone. I was hitting the bar more than Dean Martin. However, it all came good at Cheltenham and then Aintree (where those I'd been backing and losing did the business, so I was on the right horses at the wrong time) and was going great guns until the past couple of weeks when I've been hitting the post and bar again. Maybe it will all come right at Epsom and Royal Ascot?
fonz
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I do tend to curl up too early sometimes aswel,For instance I had a tip in march for one of james ewarts and had £100E/W and it came 4th and felt sick. 2 Days later I got a tip for one at kelso and had a tenner on and it won 9/2!!also at my Local track Carlisle for the mid March meeting id backed 4 losers on the trot and was pissed right off after studying all morning,Anyway 25/1 shot in the next race which I liked but didn't bother with because I was still annoyed,Lo and behold it goes and gets up by a neck. Do u ever find gambling spoils the racing for you sometimes slim? Sometimes its nice to just enjoy it.
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SlimChance
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No never. I done in €1,100 on the darts the other night. I had Wade in a massive e/w double with an 8/1 shot now trading at 6/4. He went out in the semi final. I had €650 on Taylor to beat MVG in the final and he got beat in probably one of the best darts matches ever. What can you do but put your hands up and take your beating. I still enjoyed the match.
The biggest downer I had this year was having MVG for the Worlds last Xmas for €21k and he got beat in the final by Taylor. That was a massive come down despite netting €6.5k from hedging because of the emotion invested in it.
Roddy Owen
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You ought to bet Peter Bowens this time of year,simples
fonz
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Fair play to you slim I could never compete with those sort of numbers mate,but I suppose it comes down to the age old adage,you don't bet more than you can afford to lose
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SlimChance
Guest
You shouldn't be afraid to lose. if you're playing scared money you have no chance in the long run. If you're risk adverse you're better off following something like the Daily Picks or the Will Win thread for modest stakes. You'll finish ahead at the end of the year and you wouldn't be beating yourself up for picking losers.
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Losing runs are an integral, if annoying, component of profitable punting. For my part I bet level stakes through good times and bad; if that doesn't suit then take time out but never, never reduce stakes in a fit of cautious collywobbling as that tends to coincide with a winner nor never, never increase stakes in a fit of blasting outta bother as that tends to coincide with another loser
The wisdom of experience
The wisdom of experience
Tout Seul
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Level stakes is a sensible approach, Drone, and one I would not attempt dissuade anyone from following. However it is a harsh and unnatural discipline.
The absolute rule is don't bet what you can't afford to lose. For me that is a given when I play stock markets, horses or whatever. Thereafter it surely depends on one's knowledge. Thus if I roll up to Huntingdon on a Bank holiday and have no knowledge other than what is in the racing papers I bet say £20 per race. If on the other hand I were to be aware that a competent trainer had told an owner that this one today will pay the fees for the year and my own judgement accepted the reasoning my bet would be substantial.
The absolute rule is don't bet what you can't afford to lose. For me that is a given when I play stock markets, horses or whatever. Thereafter it surely depends on one's knowledge. Thus if I roll up to Huntingdon on a Bank holiday and have no knowledge other than what is in the racing papers I bet say £20 per race. If on the other hand I were to be aware that a competent trainer had told an owner that this one today will pay the fees for the year and my own judgement accepted the reasoning my bet would be substantial.
davidjohnson
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Losing runs are an integral, if annoying, component of profitable punting. For my part I bet level stakes through good times and bad; if that doesn't suit then take time out but never, never reduce stakes in a fit of cautious collywobbling as that tends to coincide with a winner nor never, never increase stakes in a fit of blasting outta bother as that tends to coincide with another loser
The wisdom of experience
Out of interest Drone, what kind of range of prices do you play at? Could see this working if most of ur bets are in a similar price range, but how easy is it to stick to if backing regularly at both 2/1 and 14s.
FWIW, I guess I tend to use a points system of between 1-10, with most bets 2-4 pts, though I've never really thought of it that way.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Try coming away from traditional betting for a while and mix your bets according to how difficult a race appears to be to work out
You won't win fortunes overnight laying 10/1 shots or backing 1.4 shots for a place or dutching two 2/1 shots but with patience and discipline you can make it pay.
You really shouldn't have long losing runs if you discipline yourself not to be chasing fortunes in every race.
Lack of patience can be a punters worst enemy. Its a lot easier to win 50 quid a day 1500 a month than to win 1500 quid in 1 day and still have it at the end of the month backing singles imo
fonz
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Yes time is a big drawback for me aswel or lack of it. Aragorn when it comes to having a proper bet what sort of occasion do you save it for? As regards racing is it Group 1s,big field handicaps, Form study or stable info? Ive always found it ridiculous (And im including myself in this) That someone will have £150 on Dawn Approach at Epsom in one of the most competitive races of the year yet for instance at Thirsk yesterday I really fancied a horse called Klynch it was in good form and it was well in and it duly won at 6/1 yet I wouldn't dream of having £150 on it. Whats that all about??
I get the odd bit of info locally but they're not punting stables so my biggest bets are usually in graded/group company when I can't see a horse beat. Those bets are typically at under 5/1. I always feel more comfortable in all age open contests where the form tends to stand up; low grade racing is only a big bet if you're in the know.
fonz
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Yes I see where your coming from I tend to be more of a layer when it comes to lower grade stuff. Strange also ive been a Cricket lover since I was a boy but for some reason it never crosses my mind to have a bet on it.
Don't see level stakes as harsh and unnatural, quite the opposite in fact: comforting in that it allays the after-event 'wish I had less/more on' anguish and natural because if you bet as I do, with all bets being treated with equal importance (no bets as entertainment, no rolling up at Huntingdon on a bank holiday unprepared, no interest in the words of trainers/owners/jockeys/stable cats) then unless you have the second sight necessary to quantify the actual edge of your assessed-but-nebulous value, bung on the same regardless
My stake is at a level I'm content to lose and is around 2% of betting bank which has long proved an adequate cushion against ruin
In conclusion I'd rather spend valuable time digging out the bets rather than be sidetracked by staking matters
Rarely bet at less than 2/1 and most are in the 7/2 - 8/1 range though double figures account for about 5%, very rarely above 20/1
I've come to the conclusion having explored many a staking system and travelled a long circuitous and tortuous route back to where I started that my betting methods cannot be pigeon-holed and are therefore best left to - yep - level stakes
Only have about 100 bets a year nowadays and only on steeplechases
Tain't the one and only way, just what suits me
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Seems a very sensible approach to me, Drone.
davidjohnson
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Thanks Drone.
Agree with your final line. Betting is essentially a personal endeavour, and the approach that suits one individual's personality could send another crazy. As long as the figures are black not red is all that matters.
Agree with your final line. Betting is essentially a personal endeavour, and the approach that suits one individual's personality could send another crazy. As long as the figures are black not red is all that matters.