[h=2]Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle[/h]The loss of a little toughie like Nichols Canyon is hard to bear for all of us as racing fans, let alone for owners Andrea and Graham Wylie and Mullins’ entire team. He will be much missed.
His fall sadly overshadowed what should have been the moment that
Apple’s Jade triumphantly smashed through the glass ceiling placed in her way by a stated lack of ambition on the part of her trainer.
Elliott said repeatedly that she would be sticking to her own sex but luckily (in this instance) for racing fans owners Gigginstown Stud have also repeatedly proved that their trainers’ words mean little. Accordingly, this mare’s last two starts have been convincing defeats of talented gelding rivals.
In the Grade One Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle, Apple’s Jade was well positioned at or towards the fore in a crawl of a race. She was happy jumping upsides
Supasundae and travelled into the race more readily than that key rival.
However, he pressed the advantage of his lead as they approached the bypassed final hurdle and responded generously to pressure to set her a proper task in the straight. From looking confident, Davy Russell – standing in for usual pilot, Jack Kennedy – had to get tough with the mare but she also replied with gusto to get on top by half a length on the line.
“Davy said if he rode her again he would have got her into a battle earlier but in fairness she was in front where it mattered. She just loves a battle,” said Elliott, who stated that Kennedy – sidelined after what Russell called “a couple of horrid falls this week” – would retain the ride in future.
“She’ll be against the girls next time in Cheltenham, the mares’ race is the plan,” Elliott added, perhaps pleadingly, to nobody in particular. Gigginstown’s Michael O’Leary said he “imagined” that would be the trainer’s preference.
I said last week – an awfully long time ago now – that were Apple’s Jade to win this race “receiving a 7lbs mares’ allowance in the Stayers’ Hurdle would become much harder to ignore”. I was, of course, reckoning without the fact that O’Leary doesn’t find anything hard to ignore.
As things stand, she should probably be favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle. Instead, because of the doubts accompanying her likely target, she is second or even third best at prices ranging from 6/1 to 10/1. When the first bookmaker starts to size up going Non-Runner-No-Bet, expect her odds to shorten.
This was her seventh Grade One success, only two of which have occurred in races confined to her own gender. From her juvenile year, when she posted that spectacular 41-length destruction of Aintree’s Anniversary 4-Y-O Hurdle, she has shaped like a stayer with gears but nonetheless she was only just touched off in last season’s Fighting Fifth.
This was her first attempt at three miles and, such was the crawl at which it was conducted, it didn’t conclusively prove her stamina for three miles. That said, I suspect she would stay and be highly effective in the Stayers’ Hurdle, which demands exactly the sort of blend of skills that she boasts in bundles.
It would be the right thing for the sport for her to Go Big come March but, since they were granted a choice of targets at Cheltenham, when have most connections ever prioritised that? (Understandably on an individual basis; iron in the soul in collective effect.)
Although it was undoubtedly the correct tactic in the circumstances, it may not have suited runner-up Supasundae to make much of the running on this occasion. I suspect he would be better suited by more conventional tactics in a more strongly run race. He’s also unexposed at the trip, given that was only his second start over three miles, and he jumped well.
That said, Apple’s Jade could also yet improve at this trip and might well have won with more authority in a pacier affair. For me, the lack of gallop is also the reason why the likes of
Bapaume finished so close to the two principals rather than anything lacking in their ability. This race was more than nine seconds slower overall than the Pertemps Qualifier earlier on the card.
All in all, I’m happy with this column’s 20/1 position about Supasundae after a fortnight’s upheaval in this division that has also seen one other credible new player, Long Walk Hurdle winner
Sam Spinner, step to the fore.
Apple's Jade is enjoying another fine season
[h=2]OLBG Mares’ Hurdle[/h]This season,
Limini is playing the role of Quevega, with the task of understudy falling to
Vroum Vroum Mag. So far each mare is performing her part impeccably, in the sense that we haven’t seen hide nor hair of them.
Rumours abound, as they are wont to do in racing, about the prospect of Vroum Vroum Mag ever appearing again after finishing lame at Punchestown last April and missing the Morgiana for the same reason. Chary of the Quevega Caveat, I make no such prognostication – aside from to observe last term’s runner-up is an eyebrow-raising 12/1 with Paddy Power.
Limini was alleged to be showing her face on a racecourse this week. She didn’t – and currently holds no entries. Instead, it was owner and stable companion
Let’s Dance who pitched up in Leopardstown’s Grade Three mares’ hurdle and she ultimately won with authority.
Likeable
Forge Meadow typically made the running and, unchallenged until the straight, seemed to run right up to her best but Let’s Dance travelled into the race comfortably and won going away.
Her fall at Punchestown last time was responsible for Ruby Walsh’s broken leg so it wasn’t surprising to see her slightly balloon the first couple of hurdles but she warmed to her task nicely. She is usually a sound jumper.
A strong stayer at 2m4f, it’s hard to see her coming into Champion Hurdle calculations chez Mullins and she still has something to find to match Limini’s standout form – if not her more quotidian efforts. But it’s still relatively early days for Let’s Dance out of novice company even though this is her third hurdling season.
The 12/1 available with William Hill is tempting from an each-way perspective given all three opponents shorter than her – her two stablemates above and the superior (on this term’s form, at least)
Apple’s Jade – would have to turn up and two of them run to their absolute best to knock her out of the frame on what she’s achieved even now. She is a Festival winner already, after all. Let’s take that 12/1, each-way more an essential than a pleasure.
Returning to that Leopardstown race, rare British raider
Lady Buttons loomed up menacingly on the home turn only for her to flatten out late and finish fourth. She’s better than the bare form and looks capable of winning a similar contest at around two miles. Having previously won a mares’ Listed chase at Bangor, she’s versatile too.
Back in Britain, seven-year-old
Kayf Grace built on last month’s return from almost a year off to win a handicap hurdle at Kempton from a mark of 132. It was merely her third start over obstacles.
Trainer Nicky Henderson commented in his Unibet blog: "She’s had lots of problems and struggles and it was good to see her win well in what was a very competitive race. We’ve always thought a good deal of her and, if we can hold her together, she will definitely be going places."
He suggested she would be aimed for "something like" the OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle. That was a good step forward but she has a good stone to find on Limini, let alone on Apple’s Jade.
<section class="fresh8" data-reactid="342"></section>[h=2]Timico Gold Cup[/h]All change, all change please for the Christmas Chase. Out with sponsor, Gold Cup winner and both Mullins representatives. In with the Gigginstown massive – but not exactly in the order you might expect. There’s no reason to mistrust the form, however.
This was clearly a career-best performance from
Road To Respect, whose record since winning the Grade Three Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at last season’s Cheltenham Festival withstands some scrutiny.
First he scalped a left-jumping
Yorkhill at Fairyhouse in April and then returned with a straightforward Grade Three success at Punchestown. He then appeared to be out-stayed by
Outlander at Down Royal but those closest to him argued a left-handed track was the primary requirement.
This performance, aided by a first-time hood, appeared to bear them out because he stayed the three miles thoroughly – albeit this is a race that plays to speed more than out-and-out stamina, with this season’s renewal appearing no different. For comparison, the Gold Cup usually takes a good half-minute more – if not longer – to run.
Yet patiently ridden by Sean Flanagan, you can even mark up Road To Respect for getting stuck behind a struggling
Sizing John after the third last, being appreciably checked by the less well-travelling horse and having to switch round him – all of which may have contributed to a less-than-fluent jump two out.
But he was soon going best again, joined the leaders jumping left at the last and stayed on strongly. In fact if anything, his need for a left-handed track was more in evidence here than I’ve ever noticed it before – not that it was as marked as Yorkhill’s port-side bias.
Road To Respect will surely be entered in both the Gold Cup and the Ryanair. Although Gigginstown are yet to win the race Michael O’Leary’s company sponsor, their track record suggests they usually run what they deem to be their best horse in the Gold Cup.
Trainer Noel Meade is in no doubt where this horse should head come the Festival. “He’s a Gold Cup contender now, so he’ll go for the Gold Cup. Whether he runs in between or not, I don’t know,” he said.
Yet Meade has been here before, most pertinently with this horse’s uncle Road To Riches whom Gigginstown ruled would run in the 2016 Ryanair against the advice of their trainer, who preferred a second shot at the Gold Cup. So the truth is his Festival target will be up for grabs at least until the Unibet Irish Gold Cup at the start of February, if not beyond.
Both absent stablemate
Disko and the Henry de Bromhead-trained
Balko Des Flos are also in that mix. Both the latter and Road To Respect have now proved themselves in open Grade One company, however. Forget about the price tag in the case of Balko Des Flos – he may have been 66/1 but he earned his second place every inch.
At the fore from the outset – leading, disputing or content to chase Yorkhill – he jumped well and kept trying all the way to the line. A good-looking horse I recall from the twice I’ve seen him at Cheltenham, he’s packed in a lot of experience since falling four out in last term’s JLT and yet is only rising seven years of age.
He may not have recovered from the cough that kept him away from Down Royal when below form behind
Alpha Des Obeaux at Clonmel on his previous start but de Bromhead’s team was back in roaring form last week.
Balko Des Flos would appear better suited to the Gold Cup rather than the Ryanair as a target, given his improvement at this scarce-tried trip and his tenacity to the line.
Back in third, it appeared that Rachael Blackmore had Outlander in the right place at the right time throughout. He was carried left by the winner jumping in that direction at the last and had no extra near the line but pulled comfortably clear of the fourth. He was a distant tenth in the Gold Cup last term, however, beaten before interference exaggerated that margin.
Back in fourth
Minella Rocco ran really well, in the manner of a horse who should do a lot better when returned to the superior test of stamina that is the Gold Cup, in which he was second last term. He even jumped quite well for a horse capable of a heart-stopping blunder of staggering proportions.
Anything he does between now and then is likely to be immaterial to his chances at the Festival and 25/1 is too big – especially when compared with last year’s third
Native River, who’s half that price purely by dint of not yet racing this season. A sound surface is probably important to Rocco, too.
To round up the Gigginstown crew,
Valseur Lido ran creditably on his first start for exactly a year. He never really played an active part in the race but had worked his way into fourth when bumped by Minella Rocco after the last and faded, presumably for a lack of match-fitness. Alpha Des Obeaux was mildly hampered by the fall of ill-fated
Zabana and running in a first-time tongue-tie but couldn’t get involved.
Road To Respect (yellow cap) on his way to victory
Sizing John underperformed to a vast degree, losing his air of invincibility since upped to three miles. Remarkably sent off at odds-on, he was niggled along by Robbie Power as soon as the start of the second circuit and his jumping was notably sloppy. He was palpably in trouble from the third last.
Prior to his seasonal debut, it had been widely opined that a series of the toughest asks in staying chasing last term – the Irish, Cheltenham and Punchestown Gold Cups within the space of 11 weeks – would take their toll.
Yet his seven-length defeat of (a reportedly unfit)
Djakadam at Punchestown earlier this month implied such fears to be overstated. Having now seen that rival also flop badly in the Christmas Chase, jumping as poorly as I can ever recall, the validity of that form-line is brought into question. Or perhaps this race came too soon for both of them?
Sizing John was found to be “distressed and clinically abnormal” post-race by Leopardstown’s veterinary staff. Trainer Jessica Harrington later commented: “He is sound now and his heart is OK. Basically, he got slight hyperthermia and he got too hot. As soon as he cooled down, he was grand.”
Since then, blood tests have revealed nothing so Harrington plans to repeat the procedure over this weekend. “He’s sound and he ate up,” she added.
Given Sizing John has been such an incredibly consistent and high-class horse, it’s both screamingly premature to write him off on the basis of one run and unnerving that he produced such an atypical performance. From a punting point of view, however, it’s impossible to have 8/1 on your mind with the Gold Cup just 11 weeks away.
While Djakadam simply jumped and ran poorly, there were more positives to glean from the performance of Yorkhill – even though he finished stone cold last. As so often, your take on his seasonal debut probably pivots on what you thought his ergon was in the first place.
Given I have deemed it to be two-mile chasing for a season and a half now (and two-mile hurdling in the season prior to that), he is more fully discussed in the following Champion Chase section.
Minella Rocco (white cap): Underestimated in the Gold Cup market?
[h=2]Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase[/h]
Yorkhill’s performance in the Christmas Chase should by rights make it most likely that, after the many wash-up discussions Mullins’ Closutton team will be having following a rare but decidedly un-festive period for them, he will be re-routed to the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase come March.
But there are many other factors at play in Mullins’ calculations – involving owner management, jockey preference and this enigmatic horse himself.
For the third season in a row, this Ubiquity In Equine Form hovers threateningly over a clutch of Festival targets. I can only comfort myself that (a) he has befuddled his trainer just as much as he has others, although perhaps for different reasons and (b) at least we can strike a line through one race, the Timico Gold Cup.
It must speak of the dizzy regard with which this horse is held that Mullins was prepared to throw him into the centrepiece Grade One chase of Ireland’s Christmas period on his seasonal debut and only fifth start over fences. It would seem to me that this was a relatively uncharacteristic thing to do – although I suppose Djakadam did contest the Gold Cup aged six.
In the event, Townend optimistically attempted to settle Yorkhill towards the rear on the inside but didn’t find much cover there and his mount’s natural exuberance soon saw him chasing the leaders by the third fence, leading approaching the fifth and two lengths clear by halfway.
Not too long after that, Yorkhill started to jump markedly left in that manner that has become characteristic: so far left that it repeatedly took him onto the inside hurdles track before Townend dragged him back to where he should have been. And repeat to fade. There was no point persisting in the straight.
With
Min having failed to advance his Champion Chase credentials last week – even if there were mitigating factors and the performance had more substance than the market’s relative reaction to
Politologue would suggest – surely now is the time for Yorkhill to throw his gauntlet down?
A strong pace over two miles would enable him to be ridden more straightforwardly, affording him the opportunity to settle and jump within himself. He would then be a potent threat from off the pace.
You can get 10/1 Yorkhill about the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase or Ryanair – although admittedly only in one place for the last-named contest. It would be rather galling were this horse, about whose ability both Mullins and Ruby Walsh have been so rhapsodic, to wind up in the compromise destination of the Ryanair.
If details peripheral to the horse’s requirements but fundamental to Mullins’ ongoing business needs can be managed, this is the race I’d like to see him in. But there is nothing in his campaign track record to suggest I’ll get my wish at the third season of hoping.
Returning to Min, two Twitter correspondents have convinced me that I was reading Mullins incorrectly when I took his reference to how “the first four furlongs” of last week’s race “told us a lot about [pause] certain things” to mean he wished his horse had been ridden with more restraint early on – if indeed that were possible.
It crossed my mind at the time of watching that interview and then writing about it that he could have been referring obliquely to supposed ‘spoiling tactics’ employed on the free-going Gigginstown front-runner
Tell Us More but ultimately dismissed that interpretation as fanciful based on what I saw of the race.
Now, I don’t watch enough day-in, day-out racing in Ireland to know whether Mullins has a kernel of a point in this regard. What I do know is that no trainer can expect a race to be run exactly to suit his horse, that by sheer dint of class and numbers Mullins will have bossed many a race in the past and that if Min can’t cope with a bit of hustle without losing his head then he ain’t going to cut it as a top-class racehorse.
Which leads me to news that after a month of walking twice a day,
Altior is back cantering at Henderson’s yard. “He’s been scoped and you name it, we’ve checked it and he’s been given a clean bill of health,” he said in his Unibet blog.
“So we can now get on with training him for the Champion Chase. Whether he has a prep race will depend on an awful lot of things but the Game Spirit would seem the likely prep race if he has one,” he further confirmed.
Yorkhill: Who knows?
[h=2]Ryanair Chase[/h]That it’s usually a case of any any any old iron for this race always becomes starkly apparent at this time of year, when you sift through the Christmas let-downs to try to determine which of them might end up here.
That’s what the Ryanair is, even if it has produced some indubitably top-class winners, such as Vautour and Cue Card – even Imperial Commander and
Un De Sceaux himself – in the past. You’d still have preferred to see them in one of the other races, though, wouldn’t you?
Un De Sceaux was totally dominant in victory last season and has returned in good fettle but it already seems likely that, a year older, he’ll face a tougher edition in 2018 because
Top Notch is an all-bar-accidents participant and this is probably also the most likely target for
Fox Norton.
Aside from this trio, it’s typically hard to predict which of the horses prominent in the ante-post betting will actually line up here. I think I can pinpoint a couple of unlikely contenders prominent in that market, however:
Thistlecrack, because Colin Tizzard is unlikely to countenance it for a King George winner, and
Min, because his latest hot-headed display suggests anything but the minimum trip would stretch him in top company.
As ever for this race, Gigginstown have a fistful of players they could direct to either this or the Gold Cup.
Road To Respect had appeared to be one of their two prime candidates until he went and put himself in the running for the main event by winning the Christmas Chase. He’s 10/1 for both races and probably too long in each case.
Noel Meade was reportedly unhappy with
Disko’s blood tests in the week prior to the King George and so opted neither to ship his horse to Kempton nor to take on the squadron of other Gigginstown horses at Leopardstown that included his stable companion and ultimate winner.
Disko would be interesting for the Ryanair under the positive ride he didn’t get in last term’s JLT – but so would Road To Respect, given the gears he showed at Leopardstown.
Pass.
[h=2]Novice chasers[/h]It was far from total doom and gloom for the Mullins stable last week. One of the most exciting performances of the entire period came from their novice chaser,
Footpad, delivering in the colours of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede a pretty much faultless Grade One success.
As Patrick Mullins, assistant to his father Willie, said afterwards to Gary O’Brien on At The Races: “I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a novice just make it look so easy. Everything is so measured and poised – he’s a real professional.”
The key element that impressed me was his ability to jump well wherever he was positioned in the field for the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase. He didn’t have to make his own running in order to measure his fences – as many a seemingly impressive novice requires – and yet jumped straight and true throughout.
He beat
Any Second Now by 11 lengths and even that horse – for whom I confess a soft spot – shapes like a steady improver over the larger obstacles even though he is yet to win. He stuck to it but with no chance against the winner.
It was admittedly odd to see
Death Duty held up for this drop down to 2m1f but there was surely little he could have done anyway. As it turned out, his jumping came undone as he was on the stretch to chase Footpad from the ninth fence, where he rather lunged at it. He was well held when getting in too close to the last and falling. You’d imagine he’d step back up in trip next.
The jumping of both distant third
Jett and
Avenir D’Une Vie, who unseated Kennedy at the fifth, was again not up to scratch. The latter jumped right persistently until his round came to a premature end.
Footpad is now the 15/8 favourite for the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy in one place; 7/4 more widely. It’s hard to argue with his dominance in the betting, even if it’s easy to resist his odds. He’s a proven Festival performer, third in the 2016 Triumph and fourth in last year’s Champion Hurdle, and reached an official rating of 157 over the smaller obstacles. He’s already a better horse over fences.
His closest pursuer in the betting, the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase winner
Sceau Royal, is also owned by Munir and Souede so ante-post interest in either horse for the Arkle had been dampened – even though the owners have pitched both horses against each other in the last two Festivals. The thinking was that, unlike the Triumph and the Champion Hurdle, the JLT provides a Grade One alternative to the main fare.
Footpad has surely secured his ticket to the Arkle now – his blend of high-cruising stamina with secure jumping is tailor-made for the task – but it still wouldn’t surprise me, if trainer Alan King believes Sceau Royal needs two miles also, were these horses to face off again in March. Yet Footpad is surely the scopier, classier horse to my mind – bonny though his rival is.
Sticking with the two-mile crew, the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Altior, Remittance Man and Simonsig have won Kempton’s 32Red.com Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase in the past but this year’s edition attracted an underwhelming field. That said, the winner
Cyrname recorded a strong performance on the eye and comparatively to Politologue on the clock at two seconds quicker.
In doing so, he paid something of a compliment to his Newbury conqueror, the ultimately Aintree-bound
Bigmartre – strong form, as remarked at the time – although he did concede 2lbs to the winner that day and displayed a tendency to jump right. Cyrname was therefore ideally suited to this Grade Two task; being gifted three lengths at the start was a bonus.
“Over hurdles he was too keen but letting him bowl along in front and allowing him to use his jumping is ideal,” observed trainer Paul Nicholls. “We learned at Newbury he is better going right-handed, so we’ll probably look at races like the Pendil and Scilly Isles.”
At the same meeting the previous day, serial clutz
Hell’s Kitchen finally got his act together over fences because jockey Barry Geraghty gave him no option. Under an assertive ride, he clocked a startlingly good comparative time with King George victor Might Bite. (See the pertinent sectional analysis in the Gold Cup section of
Part One of the Christmas Road To Cheltenham here.
Going into that 2m4f novices’ limited handicap chase, he was rated 137 and he is clearly a great deal better than that. Anything less than a double-figure rise would be handy. Trainer Harry Fry even believes he’s better going left-handed. But you just have to rely on him not to pull hard or breast the odd fence if he’s going to produce this again...
Footpad: Another fantastic performance at Leopardstown
Looking further back at Ascot two Fridays ago,
Finian’s Oscar failed by a short head to pull the Grade Two Mitie Noel Novices’ Chase out of the fire after jumping hesitantly or disjointedly, particularly on the first circuit.
It says a lot about his heart – or relief when the fences were finally out of the way – that he was able to force a photo-finish with
Benatar at the line. The runner-up was conceding 5lbs but hasn't yet discovered a workable jumping technique.
It will be interesting to see whether Colin Tizzard enters Finian’s Oscar in the Stayers’ Hurdle (as discussed in the previous edition of the Road) as a good winner of the Grade One Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last season. The Potts family, who own him, do have Supasundae in that division, however, and Tizzard likes to stick. There were no signs of him twisting at Ascot.
"Finian’s Oscar was doing nothing the first mile, very much like he was at Sandown the other day,” he observed. “We will go up in trip and put some cheekpieces or blinkers on. As Bryan [Cooper, his jockey at Ascot] said, it is not that he is ungenuine; he is just careful."
Referring to previous rider Robbie Power’s post-Sandown summation, that it was all “happening too fast for him” in the Grade One Henry VIII Chase won by Sceau Royal and that “he’s not brave enough” for two miles, Tizzard added: “The word ‘brave’ that we used a couple of days ago is quite significant. He just needs to be a bit braver.”
Easier said than done – and the step up from two miles to 2m5f was supposed to gird his loins in itself.
Benatar was a decent hurdler – albeit a comfortably held fourth behind Finian’s Oscar at Aintree – and is an even better chaser, having won a novices’ handicap on his debut from a mark of 142.
He does need a lead, so this three-runner affair probably wasn’t ideal for him and his jumping could yet tighten up. That he out-leapt his main rival at the last two fences is faint praise. He will be entered in the JLT and RSA but a narrow victory over a poor-jumping rival – even if Benatar has excuses himself – isn’t compelling.
Despite jumping well, third-placed
Dolos was ultimately left a long way behind. He was improving as a hurdler last season and a convincing winner on chase debut at this track last month, even if beating
Sternrubin over fences is not the feather it might have been imagined.
Nicholls had been in two minds about this 2m5f trip and Dolos did appear not to get home. In that case, the original plan of the Pendil or the Scilly Isles might be too much of stretch at this stage in his career.
Earlier on the same day at Ascot, the Henderson-trained
Divine Spear jumped well to record a better comparative time than Benatar in the 2m1f novices’ handicap chase. He’s been raised 10lbs by the official handicapper to a mark of 143 and is very effective on a sound surface.
Likeable stablemate
Rather Be had made a winning chase debut at Towcester the previous day, shaping as though a return to further than two miles would suit ideally. He jumped well and responded generously when briefly pressed by
War Sound – who’s making a career out of being thumped by Seven Barrows-trained horses over fences – to pull away by 19 lengths.
His trainer has already pinpointed the 2m4f Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival as his medium-term target. “We’ll have to be very careful with his handicap mark about how we get there,” he said, in answer to a fan’s question via his Unibet blog. “He’ll be out shortly but it won’t be until the ground dries up a bit.”
Henderson’s blog also revealed that
River Wylde, who comfortably accounted for Hell’s Kitchen at Uttoxeter but was then thrashed 18 lengths by
North Hill Harvey at Cheltenham, has just returned to fast work after having a minor wind operation.
"He… obviously wasn’t quite right at Cheltenham last time. Nico [de Boinville, his jockey] came back in and said he made a small noise so we’ve cauterised his palate… I hope to get him back on track for the Arkle," he said.
Cyrname wins the Wayward Lad in good style
Returning to Ireland, the feature staying novices’ chase of the Christmas period was robbed of some of its relevance when ante-post RSA Chase favourite
Monalee fell, bringing down a helpless
Rathvinden and hampering the sticky-jumping
Dinaria Des Obeaux in the process.
The Grade One Neville Hotels Novices’ Chase instead went to scopey mare
Shattered Love, who avenged her earlier Punchestown defeat by
Jury Duty with a more professional round of jumping under positive tactics. This was a career best effort on her first attempt at three miles but the race did fall apart.
Jury Duty didn’t have much of a cut at his fences before keeping on in the wake of the winner. Geraghty attempted to smuggle
Bon Papa into the race against his will but his high-headed mount had rumbled him by the straight so the game was swiftly up.
It was disappointing that
Moulin A Vent’s jumping didn’t hold up in this contest, given he had been improving takingly beforehand. Rathvinden was yet to make his move when taken out of the race at the tenth but Dinaria Des Obeaux had created plenty of her own problems.
That no novice has apparently stamped his or her mark on this division is evidenced by the fact that Monalee remains as favourite in the RSA Chase betting despite his tumble – and it’s not as if that fall came out of the blue at Leopardstown.
His jumping had lacked poise at a handful of fences before he failed to get high enough at the tenth and took a purler of a tumble, flipping right over. It was a relief to hear he was OK afterwards.
He’d previously looked good when defeating Any Second Now at Punchestown but he pretty much made all that day and his jumping passed un-interrogated. He boasts Cheltenham form, as last term’s Albert Bartlett runner-up, but this was disappointing in what was otherwise a very good week for trainer de Bromhead.
As a result, I think it’s time to make a move for
Presenting Percy. I don’t like putting up horses in the ‘To win at the Festival’ market but I don't think we’ll find out whether this horse is running in the RSA or the NH Chase for some time yet. The only thing I know firsthand about trainer Patrick Kelly is he ain’t for talking, so I wouldn’t blame you for taking the 11/2 in that market.
But if you’re brave, you’ll take the 8/1 about him winning the RSA Chase because a mark of 157 – established on the bridle against experienced handicappers – says he’s already good enough to win many an edition of that race. If heading there, he could have the trusty services of Davy Russell and there would be no qualms about the trip.
Presenting Percy is also 10/1 for the NH Chase, where he would be amateur-ridden – not that Ireland wants for ‘professional’ amateurs – and trying a new trip. There was nothing in his 3m5f Porterstown Chase success that suggested he wouldn’t get it but it is an unknown. I prefer the RSA, so let’s screw up our courage and grab that 8/1.
Presenting Percy has taken to fences well this term
In other Irish news, smart ex-hurdler
Snow Falcon got off the mark at the third attempt over fences after shaping with promise when too far off the pace in a steadily run race behind Death Duty at Fairyhouse earlier in the month.
Admittedly only two horses finished in this 2m5f beginners’ chase at Leopardstown, but the winner largely jumped soundly and exhibited none of the lapses of concentration that held him back from the top table as a staying hurdler.
The Mullins-trained
Bacardys had been sent off the beaten favourite in this event – the second time in as many starts over fences – but started to run down his fences to the left from the fifth and even made a good impression of Yorkhill, such was adjustment, three fences later. Switched right around rivals at the tenth, his departure was almost inevitable.
Stablemate
Bunk Off Early also failed to justify favouritism on his chase debut at the same fixture earlier in the week. Fellow Mullins inmate
Montalbano had initially hared off with
Le Martalin until the former hit the third fence hard and fell; the latter was steadily reeled in come the straight, where the last was omitted and one of the loose horses a nuisance.
Tycoon Prince had the superior toe, track position and perhaps match-fitness to deal with such circumstances and recorded his first success since his hurdling debut in October 2015 when thought to have “a bright future”. Things have clearly not gone straightforwardly in between, due to lameness problems and managing to get to the track only twice last season.
Bunk Off Early was relatively well fancied but ultimately well beaten in last term’s Supreme. Here, he was the most inconvenienced by the loose horse and stuck to his task well under firm pressure in the straight. He should do better because his jumping was mostly sound.
Finally, back in Britain, Bryony Frost’s outstanding breakthrough season went up another level when winning the first Grade One of her career on board trusty sidekick
Black Corton in the 32Red Kauto Star Novices’ Chase.
Only hard nuts needed apply in this strongly run edition of Kempton’s novice equivalent to the King George because sectional timing underpinned what was obvious to the eye: they went hard early and came home tired late. In such a situation there are few horses braver than the winner.
Black Corton has now won seven of his ten chase starts, six of them when partnered by Frost who is now customary sight in races in which she can’t utilise her 5lb claim.
Ridden with full belief in her small-scale mount, Frost got Black Corton jumping sure-footedly and nippily avoided
Fountains Windfall when that rival departed at the fourth last. They then drew out further reserves when
Elegant Escape, who’d lost his position at the end of the hard first circuit, staged a late rally.
There is no doubt that Black Corton thoroughly deserves his place in the RSA Chase but it’s also impossible to dismiss the thought that he won’t quite be good enough to win. Part of the reason for this thinking is how Nicholls has campaigned him – striking repeatedly while the horse is thriving in that signature way he does with smart horses he judges to be just below top class.
At level weights, this result reversed Black Corton’s Grade Two Newbury form with Elegant Escape, whose resolution nonetheless impressed here. He should run creditably if permitted to line up in the NH Chase and 20/1 is fair.
Fountains Windfall largely jumped far better than at Newbury but essentially he is too courageous a guesser when things go wrong. He has now hit the deck on his last two starts and is sorely in need of a boost to his confidence. He still had every chance when departing here, although he had gone fast.
This was a respectable effort in third from
West Approach but so far he does not look quite this class over fences. Whereas the jumping of mare
Mia’s Storm had seemed to be her major asset coming into this event, that of
Ballyoptic had let him down previously. Here neither withstood chasing at the required pace, with Mia’s Storm unraveling relatively early and starting to go out to her left and Ballyoptic descending into blunder city.
Black Corton wins at Kempton
[h=2]Novice hurdlers[/h]The Paddy Power Future Champions Novices’ Hurdle took several viewings to grasp – and I’m still not sure I’ve fully managed it. However, it took only one look to realise this column’s ante-post Sky Bet Supreme bet
Mengli Khan had disgraced himself by ducking out suddenly and crashing through the wing at the second last.
He was leading at the time and I suspect that doesn’t suit because he’d wandered approaching one of the preceding hurdles, too. He was going well in front when the architect of his own downfall – if there is perhaps a suspicion he may have done a bit too much up front. He can yet do better if smothered up and delivered late.
Nonetheless, this can only have dented one’s confidence in him as a Supreme prospect because top-flight horses tend to be bombproof in their mentality as a rule. That said, as Labaik and to a far lesser degree Might Bite proved last year, there are exceptions. I’m not giving up on Mengli Khan running a big race at Cheltenham just yet. Some headgear would help.
After Mengli Khan destroyed the penultimate flight,
Real Steel took over on the lead having earlier struggled to go the pace. He’d lost touch with the main pack after the third but got back on terms at the flight prior to the incident and took full advantage of others’ subsequent disarray to make his best way home from the front.
Stable companion
Sharjah quickly gave chase, however, after being inconvenienced seemingly when
Le Richebourg jumped left (as he had frequently) into his path independent of Mengli Khan’s antics at the second last. Having travelled into the last better than Real Steel, Sharjah was upsides and looking the likeliest winner when they both took independent falls in a highly dramatic race.
That left diminutive
Whiskey Sour – only chucked into the race by Mullins due to a lack of options – to pick up the pieces for a 19-length success over Le Richebourg. The time was marginally the quickest hurdling effort of the day but would obviously have been better had the leaders at the last stood up.
The winner had spent the first five hurdles patiently ridden and detached from the field, but on closer inspection he might well have finished second to Sharjah had his two stable companions kept their feet at the last, such was the application with which he finished this strange race.
“We were thinking Galway but we might have to bring forward the plan,” Mullins said of the winner in the immediate aftermath. “I needed to get a run into him. He’d had a little setback after his last run. It was hard to find a race so I stuck him in this race – that’s it. He was just a runner.”
Later he described it as “a lucky win, end of story” and added: “I’ve never seen anything like it. Losing the other race [Min’s] in the stewards’ room then Mengli Khan jumping out at the second last.
“I thought at least then we’d be first, second and third going to the last and then the two of them fall individually. It was extraordinary stuff and I was just waiting for them to bring down our third runner and really cap the day.”
Mullins also reflected that he was “delighted with how Sharjah ran”. He ascribed Real Steel’s inability to keep pace with the rest of the field early on to “a lack of experience”, pointing to the wealth of Flat practice boasted by the winner and even, by comparison, Sharjah. “We’ll let Whiskey Sour run against those horses at the Dublin Racing Festival and see,” he concluded.
While Mengli Khan was losing concentration, two British hurdlers emerged on his blindside as serious contenders for the Supreme – if not arguably quite yet at the level that Elliott’s charge set when winning the Royal Bond last month.
First to lay down his advanced claim was
Claimantakinforgan at Ascot two Fridays ago in by far the best time of the day. The other keynote of his Grade Two Kennel Gate triumph was his neat hurdling, even when slightly inconvenienced by previous Cheltenham winner
Slate House jumping left across him at the sixth.
He just needed nudging to hold his position on the home turn, led for being shaken up approaching the last and stayed on well. The doughty
Dr Des continued to impress with his attitude in second, sticking on dourly after being outpaced by the winner. He’s progressive.
Since reassessed to a mark of 146, Claimantakinforgan is getting darn close to near-assured Supreme frame material and, given he wasn’t far behind the ill-fated Fayonagh in last season’s Festival Bumper, we know he handles the track. He’s now the 8/1 favourite, clear of a lengthened Mengli Khan with some bookmakers.
At Kempton on Boxing Day, the opening success of
If The Cap Fits will surely be rated in the same bracket as Claimantakinforgan. The winner is likely to receive an entry in both the Supreme and Ballymore Novices’ Hurdles at the Festival, yet trainer Fry has since signaled he’s leaning towards the former.
A strongly run two miles in which If The Cap Fits can be delivered late would suit him ideally and could even extract an improved performance because again here, he tended to run about when approaching his hurdles in the lead.
The time compared favourably with the other hurdle events on the card, including the Unibet Christmas Hurdle crawl won by Buveur D’Air. If The Cap Fits is an exciting prospect for owners Paul and Clare Rooney and 10/1 for the Sky Bet Supreme is, again, very fair.
In his wake, it should be noted that
Diese Des Bieffes got outpaced before rallying determinedly,
Solomon Grey was a solid third and
Simply The Betts folded after briefly looking threatening.
Irish Prophecy – representing the
Kalashnikov form – was hampered by the fall of
Storm Home at the third last. There was promise in different ways from each of the Gary Moore-trained 66/1 shots,
Ar Mest and
Airtight.
In other news – and I’m sure to have missed something here, so tune in next week –
Fabulous Saga took the Grade two Guinness Novice Hurdle at Limerick in cussed fashion. Headed by
Burren Life approaching the penultimate flight, switched he dug in to narrowly regain the lead at the last. Rallying four-year-old
Delta Work might have given him something to think about, mind, had he jumped the last two flights better.
The winner is a thorough stayer and perhaps a mudlark – two fences had to be omitted on the adjacent chase course this day due to ground conditions. The runner-up is a name to bear in mind for staying chases of the future.
Earlier in the week at the same track, galloper
Sympa Des Flos got off the mark despite jumping deliberately in the 2m6f maiden hurdle and seven-year-old mare
Crackerdancer’s hurdles debut success had trainer Ray Hackett talking about the Festival’s Dawn Run contest for novice mares. She showed her inexperience on her approach to several of the obstacles.
At Leopardstown,
Paloma Blue lightened what would prove a heavy week for owner Chris Jones, given the loss of stalwart Zabana in the Christmas Chase two days later. The time was good for the two-mile maiden hurdle and trainer de Bromhead, who scored a Boxing Day treble there, deems him “a Graded horse”. He plans to return for the Dublin Festival.
De Bromhead was also in the winner’s enclosure with
Dicey O’Reilly in the 2m4f maiden later in the week. A first-time tongue-tie at least coincided with a much-improved second hurdles start from a well-regarded animal.
Finally, as detailed in Henderson’s Unibet blog – read it there first – this column’s ante-post Ballymore selection
On The Blind Side missed Saturday’s Challow Hurdle because “he knocked himself behind”.
“It’s nothing serious and it’s healing by the minute,” he added. “He’ll be back in time for a Cheltenham prep.”
The Challow will be assessed in next week’s edition of the Road, along with all other relevant races from the early New Year period.
If The Cap Fits won in taking fashion
[h=2]Juvenile hurdlers[/h]In Ireland,
Espoir D’Allen continues his serene progress through the juvenile ranks – mirroring the standing of JP McManus’s other leading juvenile, the filly
Apple’s Shakira, on this side of the Irish Sea.
The Gavin Cromwell-trained gelding probably didn’t need to be at his best to register this Grade Two success at Leopardstown by a length-and-a-quarter from
Farclas, with
Mitchouka getting two lengths closer to him under 3lb better terms but not finding much off the bridle.
In truth, it was a one-sided affair with Mark Walsh taking a pull two out and his mount leading comfortably approaching the last. He therefore remains unbeaten and is best priced in one place at 10/1 for the Triumph, behind McManus’s filly at a broad 7/2.
Mullins threw another juvenile into the mix, following the filly
Stormy Ireland’s Fairyhouse romp earlier this month, when debutant
Mr Adjudicator, who stayed at least 11 furlongs on the Flat in Ireland, scored a wide-margin success at Leopardstown.
"He wasn’t an easy ride when he came to us,” admitted Patrick Mullins on At The Races. “The worry was he’d be too keen, hence the hood. Paul [Townend] was happy with his jumping – he’s been a natural at home since day one. come to Leopardstown at Christmas and won as he likes so he’ll step up in grade. You hope these horses are Triumph horses."
Over at Kempton on the same day,
Redicean also made a winning hurdles debut by a comfortable margin. It wasn’t quite so straightforward as for Mr Adjudictor – Redicean was keen and ran about at some hurdles, causing him to make a mistake at the third, but he got on terms with the leaders easily enough and came right away.
He stayed 14 furlongs for David O’Meara on the Flat and, now housed with Alan King, is in the right yard to make some sort of impact in juvenile hurdles.
In news from off the track, Henderson reports that the rescheduling of Chepstow’s Welsh Grand National meeting could mean either Apple’s Shakira or
We Have A Dream contests in the Grade One Finale Hurdle on the same 6 January card.
Confirming that the Triumph is the aim for the latter, he said: “They won’t both run but, as this race has been pushed back, it has given us an extra week and so certainly comes into play for one of them.”
“I want to get Shakira some valuable race experience in a bigger field,” he reiterated. “So we’ll see how the entries look later in the week.”
The McNeill Family has also been in touch via Twitter to report
Act Of Valour’s blood was found to be “completely wrong” when tested two days after his disappointing run at Doncaster earlier this month. No doubt it was a relief to find a reason for a horse who’d previously made such a positive impression when winning on debut at Newcastle.
Espoir D'Allen on his way to an impressive win
[h=2]
Selections:[/h]
Advised 30/11/17: Min 8/1 Champion Chase with Paddy Power/Betfair
Advised 06/12/17: Supasundae 20/1 Stayers’ Hurdle with Bet365 and Paddy Power/Betfair
Advised 06/12/17: Mengli Khan for the Supreme 15/2 with Betfair
Advised 13/12/17: On The Blind Side for the Ballymore 10/1 each-way with various firms
Back now: Let’s Dance each-way at 12/1 for the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle with William Hill
Back now: Presenting Percy at 8/1 with BetVictor, BetFred, BoyleSports or Stan James to win the RSA Chase
