Melbourne Cup 4.00 am Flemington, Tuesday

R

reet hard

Senior Jockey
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Aug 4, 2011
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I've long held the view that genuine 2 milers from Europe are wasting there time around this sharp track on Summer ground, so can readily dismiss such as Cross Counter (as a 4yo), Il Paradiso and Master Of Reality from calculations. However, 10 to 14f European horses do have a much better record in the race, and there's a number of these to consider viz: Ebor winner Mustajeer, Magic Wand, Constantinople,Master of Reality, Southern France and Raymond Tusk; all have shown enough to enter calculations.
My personal fancy would be Raymond Tusk which, with any luck would have probably won the Ebor (A very high class h'cap this year, as befits the prizes on offer). Had a nightmare draw then but much better berthed in this, which should allow him to lie up,if necessary, and he likes faster ground (the equivalent of Oz g/s?).
Currently 20/1 B365 & 9/2 place (3 places).
 
I’d say it’s fine to dismiss Cross Counter on added weight, and potentially 4yo, grounds Reet but as a previous winner I couldn’t dismiss him for being unsuited to the demands of the race.

FWIW I’ve remained loyal to Mustajeer - taken 16/1, 7 places but 20/1 available elsewhere - after landing a touch on him in the Ebor. He’s been trained down under since moving from Ger Lyons to be readied for this and ran an eye catching race (as did a number of others to be fair) in the 1m4f Caulfield Cup. He has the pace to be effective between 10 & 12 furlongs but proved at York that he is strong over slightly further on quick ground.

He has a nice enough draw, although could find himself boxed in if adopting the hold up tactics from LTO but after the nice stable pipe opener - if you can call a £1.7 million race a pipe opener - I expect him to improve significantly for the run/extra distance and while Raymond Tusk has a chance of turning the York form around with a clearer run and weight difference I’d prefer to have 3 time winner Damien Oliver onboard than Jamie Spencer in a race such as this.

I’ll have a saver on Constantinople too at 15/2.

Best of luck.
 
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Been wrong plenty of times before, :)O. Just feel that 3 Cup races and an Irish Leger is a very different programme to that he had before taking this last year.
Saved on Mustajeer because, as Lee points out, his prep has been geared toward this, though I still think Jamie S will rise to the occasion.
GL to all, and may the best horse win.:cool:
 
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