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walsworth

walsworth

Journeyman
Joined
Jul 19, 2006
Messages
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Location
North Herts
Being naturally nosey I'm interested in how people decide on horses worth a bet.

I'm not expecting anyone to give away any secrets or to tell us of any "edge" that they have discovered, just their general way of working.

Do you trawl through the form book checking going, distance etc. of possible selections previous runs, or follow trainers habits?

Do you watch lots of racing and make a note of unlucky losers?

Do you follow any favourite tipsters?

Or do you use a similar approach to me, which is to allocate a numerical value to the various actions of each horses previous performances?
That is to say, position in last 3 races, course or distance winner, days since last run, forecast price etc.
 
Summed up in my blog. Everything is born from what I see where I am looking for horses which, to my eye, look ready to win (or win again). There must be no strong negatives when looking at the various segments - class, form, going, jockey etc, etc - and I do like to see market support, particularly moves from initial early price.

For a more systematic approach, the “debut handicap, lower class, higher distance” thing has been going great guns this season. Worth paying attention to it, but probably for next season now. I’ve not been a strict follower and then only on the fun bet side.
 
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I concentrate on handicaps, class 3 and lower, which means that I rarely join in on the big race threads.

Your approach does look sensible to me but unlike you, I tend to keep away from any horse that is attracting money. I think the value has gone by then, it's been taken by those in the know.
 
walsworth said:
I concentrate on handicaps, class 3 and lower, which means that I rarely join in on the big race threads.

Your approach does look sensible to me but unlike you, I tend to keep away from any horse that is attracting money. I think the value has gone by then, it's been taken by those in the know.
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Hang on, those in the know believe the horse is going to win and take the best price, so you won’t back a signalled (maybe) winner because you missed the better price? I’m afraid I can’t get my head round that.

I rarely get the best price since I am waiting to see market support. I will often have a smallish opening shot and add as price shortens (and again). Conversely, if it drifts I should cash out and I wish I was a more disciplined in that than I am. You could say I chase worse value (although not too skinny) and forego better value.
 
walsworth said:
Being naturally nosey I'm interested in how people decide on horses worth a bet.

I'm not expecting anyone to give away any secrets or to tell us of any "edge" that they have discovered, just their general way of working.

Do you trawl through the form book checking going, distance etc. of possible selections previous runs, or follow trainers habits?

Do you watch lots of racing and make a note of unlucky losers?

Do you follow any favourite tipsters?
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Pretty much all of the above but keener to go back further than three races and not keen on following tipsters although I do tend to put a wee bit extra on if my selection coincides with Paul Kealy's. I often think horses are put away for at least three races before targeting something.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Pretty much all of the above but keener to go back further than three races and not keen on following tipsters although I do tend to put a wee bit extra on if my selection coincides with Paul Kealy's. I often think horses are put away for at least three races before targeting something.
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Mentioning tipsters reminded me to add that horses featuring by posters on here (who are the most knowledgable bunch I have come across) come on my radar, too :). And to profitable effect I might add.
 
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Absolutely, Bj, but I don't see forumites as 'tipsters'.

I see them in terms of my respect for them as judges and the ones for which I have the highest regard are more likely to have me following them in blind.
 
walsworth said:
Your approach does look sensible to me but unlike you, I tend to keep away from any horse that is attracting money. I think the value has gone by then, it's been taken by those in the know.
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Agree with this, and that value is gained by getting in early on horses likely to be punted.
Do believe though, that the real key to the kingdom is in knowing (or figuring) what the trainer is up to.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Absolutely, Bj, but I don't see forumites as 'tipsters'.

I see them in terms of my respect for them as judges and the ones for which I have the highest regard are more likely to have me following them in blind.
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Absolutely, I think of forumites in the same way.
 
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Do believe though, that the real key to the kingdom is in knowing (or figuring) what the trainer is up to.[/QUOTE]

I agree but I'm not making a very good job of it lately.
 
My usual bet is an ew Yankee/ Canadian, so I’ll be looking for a bit of value in the bigger field handicaps. Three or four I’ll choose myself, looking at trainer and jockey form and some CD form; throw in a liking for the ground and form in races with more than 12 runners. The other pick will possibly by a DO or Gigilo outsider. I’ll sometimes do a small stakes Gigilo acca, but never the one when all the stars line up.

The value of the guys who put the work in on this forum - others included - can never be underestimated.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Pretty much all of the above but keener to go back further than three races and not keen on following tipsters although I do tend to put a wee bit extra on if my selection coincides with Paul Kealy's. I often think horses are put away for at least three races before targeting something.
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Paul Kiely is always worth a read and I dont know if he still tips on the big races but Gerard Delamare was to me the best judge.
Won me some money in the past.many years ago Nick Mordin was good as well.
I remember years ago he said a horse was the best bet at the breeders cup for 10 yrs and take American prices so I had £50 win.
I think it returned 11/4 and I got 6/1 won by about 10L.
 
Outsider said:
Paul Kiely is always worth a read and I dont know if he still tips on the big races but Gerard Delamare was to me the best judge.
Won me some money in the past.many years ago Nick Mordin was good as well.
I remember years ago he said a horse was the best bet at the breeders cup for 10 yrs and take American prices so I had £50 win.
I think it returned 11/4 and I got 6/1 won by about 10L.
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BANKS HILL 2001 Breeders cup fillies and mares turf.A.Fabre/O.Peslier
 
I've had the best run of my life since October up until and including Vadeni winning the Eclipse.

He was easy to find he has the Wow factor as did more than a few I put up over the last 10 months..

Most are returned between evens and 7/2 but they win. Some critisise me for tipping short prices ......I say ok when you put up 22 winners from 25 selections come back and talk to me.

I don't really have a secret but when a horse catches my eye it could be I saw it run and I kept a mental note of it

But more likely I just look at the race and the betting and sometimes one just jumps out at me.

That's when I go to replays and check out every horse in the race.
I find it very easy to spot the best horse this way. If the right man is on board and the ground is ok which is almost always I back the horse.

I never wast my time posting pages and pages of my own ratings or read other peoples sectional because they are about the worst tipsters on the planet.

Horses are flesh and blood not numbers and with today videos being available......

My advice is don't waste your time adding 4 lbs take a way 2lbs and get 3lbs you will never make money at the game in handicaps on the flat as long as your arse is pointing to the ground.
 
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I should add don't read website/newspaper tipsters you'll end up broke.


Look out for a few very good judges on here like Slim and Gigilo (Daily Tips) who have exellent reacords at finding winners.
 
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I guess I possibly have the most “hands on” experience of anyone on here which can play to my advantage some of the time. So often I will wait until the last minute to back a horse and see it on the paddock or at the start and then use my equine knowledge to make a decision. And if I am at the races and see them in the flesh then it really can make a huge difference. I can have 4-5 winners each meeting Pointing just based on how a horse looks.

But there are plenty of obvious “rules” that I adhere to. Here are a few:
1. Check out first time headgear
2. Check out first time tongue tie
3. First time after wind op or gelding op
4. Course form....if a horse can run at Epsom, it will handle Brighton or Goodwood. Likewise if all it’s best form is on a flat galloping track, then I will watch to see if can handle a gradient.
5. Trainer form....goes without saying. If the trainer is in good form, the horses are healthy and vice versa with poor form.
6. Winning handicap marks...always check to see what they last won off as the trainer may have been trying to get it down to that winning mark
7. A trainer such as Mark Johnson targets Goodwood with his 1m2f-1m4f handicappers
8. Ian Williams with ex-French horses likewise David O’Meara
9. A horse dropping in grade from running in graded races into handicaps
10. Various trainers I do rate...Haggas, Varian, Stoute older horses, etc.
11. Cowell in 5f sprints especially with new horses in yard but he does fiddle about with them
12. Breeding...often pays to check out how they are bred for ability, ground and if they have fancy entries

I don’t ever do ratings or listen to anyone else’s views. Sometimes (like Ascot this year with 14 winners) I do really well, but equally I can have a blank week. Ups and downs is what racing is all about!
 
Len Madeiros said:
Nick Mordin was very good. Put up Dancing Rain at 20/1 for The Oaks, based on the clock.
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I bought the Mordin book (think there might have been two) but found too many inconsistencies in his thinking and couldn't trust his 'pars'. Yes, he did get things right now and again but, as someone once said, a stopped clock is right twice a day.

I much preferred the logic of approach of the guy (Stewart Simpson?) who liked top weights at tracks with a tight final bend (eg Sandown) if they had the word "quickened" in a previous form comment. I thought a lot of the book was wishful fiction but that element is still something I like to bear in mind. It might even have been in play with Trueshan in the Plate the other day. During the morning programme one of the team talked about Newcastle being on a constant long turn from some way out. That would mean horses unable to gallop full out and maybe helped Trueshan's superior basic speed to come good.
 
Interesting replies, thank you very much, plenty to think about.

I find that I can achieve break even most of the time with occasional highs and lows but not an overall profit. Analysing my bets makes me realise that I am having too many and I will use some of your suggestions to help me be more selective.
 
jinnyj said:
I guess I possibly have the most “hands on” experience of anyone on here which can play to my advantage some of the time. So often I will wait until the last minute to back a horse and see it on the paddock or at the start and then use my equine knowledge to make a decision. And if I am at the races and see them in the flesh then it really can make a huge difference.
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I can personally vouch for this :) I've never forgotten that day at Newbury...


jinnyj said:
9. A horse dropping in grade from running in graded races into handicaps
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Find in the Bunbury Cup?
 
Many winners can be found by seeing the horses in the flesh and up close in the parade ring. Appearance and body language can be very informative.
 
Colin said:
Many winners can be found by seeing the horses in the flesh and up close in the parade ring. Appearance and body language can be very informative.
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I'm a great believer in that, which is why I was hanging on to Jinnyj's every word at Newbury but surely it takes a lot of experience of being around racehorses to develop that keen eye?

At the same time, I've heard TV paddock 'judges' disagree over the condition of a horse.

Even the other day, Adele Mulrennan said Mishriff would definitely strip fitter for the run - I think she might have said something along the lines of 'could tuck up a bit more' for the race, whereas JG said the horse was 'fit enough' and 'wasn't blowing much' after the race.

I suppose it's why I rely so much on my own numbers. I'm much more comfortable winning or losing based on my own judgment and/or calculations. I'm in control of them and can act on them. I can't control or act on other people's opinion until I have 100% (or near as dammit) faith in them (which I do in Jinnyj's).
 
Desert Orchid said:
……I'm a great believer in that, which is why I was hanging on to Jinnyj's every word at Newbury but surely it takes a lot of experience of being around racehorses to develop that keen eye?…….
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Yes, I wish I could say I had such an eye, but they all look pretty much the same to me for the most part. If it’s pointed out to me I can just about see the difference, but left to my own devices - no chance.
 
barjon said:
Yes, I wish I could say I had such an eye, but they all look pretty much the same to me for the most part. If it’s pointed out to me I can just about see the difference, but left to my own devices - no chance.
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I fall into this camp..my wife however who worked with horses and rode a lot in her younger days often points out what she thinks
are the fittest and best turned out, probably why she backs far more winners than me!
 
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