29th November 2008
Good Morning;
No matter how much rubbish you read in the daily papers, every single one will have a fact in it today, “Greyhounds Make Great Pets Novices' Hurdle”, yes I agree and so will many that Greyhounds make great pets, but I think Paul Nicholls read the title of the race wrong, I think he thought it was open to Grey – Hounds. Cue today’s lay of the day. AMERICAN TRILOGY (LAY) is both of the above in my opinion, a Grey and yes a Hound, i.e Dog. The impressive French import was a fair tool on the flat but whilst he caught the eye winning in style at Aintree his resolution was put to the sword at Cheltenham last time out. Travelling like the best horse in the race he cruised up into contention coming down the hill, but no sooner had he looked like he would score in decisive style, he folded tamely. The one thing I will give him credit for was numerous fine leaps, he’ll come into his own when sent chasing. The tough and likeable Golan Way gave the thou shall not pass attitude I love to see in a hurdler and it seemed American Trilogy said okay rather than put up a fight, he was also toiling up the hill which questions in my mind whether he will truly be a strong 2m over hurdles, either way I don’t trust him, he showed no guts at Cheltenham and with the Nicholls team looking a bit down in the dumps, I think the 9/4 has to be laid. Moves Goodenough and Norman The Great has showed enough in their hurdling starts to rate a serious danger, whilst the hurdling debutante Peppertree Lane adds spice to the mix, a very smart performer on the level for Mark Johnston, he will relish conditions and was by far a better horse than the favourite on the level, so there is no reason to expect American Trilogy to be better than him over obstacles, however American Trilogy’s hardest task will be to concede 8lb to the highly promising Cockney Trucker (Bet-Strong). Phillip Hobbs’ horses are running well at present and the Presenting gelding will be suited by today’s conditions down to the ground, Presenting’s are battled hardened warriors who give their all and Cockney Trucker despite being outpaced at Cheltenham showed a real likeable attitude to stay on smartly into 3rd, in what is looking a strong Cheltenham Maiden Hurdle. Gutsy winner Dee Ee Williams followed up in good style at Ascot, whilst 4th placed Alfie Flits made little work of defeating a decent field at Haydock next time out. 6th placed Sunsetten also was a winner next time out at Ludlow, beating a strongly fancied Henderson horse whilst 8th placed Edgbriar got off the mark here yesterday. 9th placed Unfurled who re-opposes here managed a second next time, so for me that Cheltenham race looks rock solid, which can’t be said of American Trilogy’s win at Chepstow or his 3rd at Cheltenham. In both races the horses close have been subsequently turned over, Over Sixty 2nd at Cheltenham was disappointing here on Thursday when only 2nd in a fair contest whilst the form of his debut win took a massive dent when close up 2nd Hernando Royal could only manage 4th off a mark of 116 next time out, the 3rd may have won next time but he made hard work of a weak contest and that makes me feel that the Nicholls horse is no better than a mid 120s horse at present. Arguably Cockney Trucker looks nearer the high 130s and his Champion Bumper 8th only beaten 13L was another sound performance. I do believe Cockney Trucker will do better over 2m 4f, but the ground was holding yesterday and was suiting the strong stamina types. I think Cockney Trucker could end up a serious Ballymore Properties Hurdle type this season and I’m more than happy to have a strong bet around 2/1 and lay the 9/4 shot American Trilogy who has drifted slightly already from his forecasted 11/8 favourites tag.
The Fulke Walwyn chase has lost some of its glitz from when it attracted promising chasers in the 90s but there are a couple in here at long odds that look overpriced. Artipreuil showed a taking attitude last time and under strong Joe Tizzard drive he showed a willing attitude to collect. Up 10lb he will need to improve but he’ll love the ground and he stays and jumps well. Also I’m drawn to Turbulance at a staggering 14/1. It was a good race he filled the bridesmaid role in at Leicester and he was staying on strongly where it mattered. He is a very neat jumper and Noel Chance’s horses always improve for going handicapping. Nick Scholfield takes the rains today and given it looked a strong race at Leicester, I feel he has been let in lightly off 119. He is value ew.
The 1.35 is an open looking contest and its disappointing to see the former Champion Chase runner Oneway lose most of his ability, he showed little under his rider/trainer last time and whilst he could strip fitter here, he looks a horse which has lost his way a little. A mark of 136 see’s him very well treated and he does like it here but you could only risk small stakes at 33s trusting him to return to form, he needs to show something more but there’s is no doubting he is thrown in if returning to former form here.
However the Nicky Henderson team will be hoping of big things from Petit Robin today and they have always regarded him a smart chaser in the making, running off his hurdles mark first time over fences (In UK) against seasoned campaigners will get many people pressing pink rather than Blue but he was a smart looking chaser unbeaten in two starts in his native France and he gave a favourable impression when winning here last winter beating a smart type of Nick Williams in Beshabar who has just been announced as being out for the season since joining a new trainer with an injury and for me Petit Robin is an exciting enough prospect to see off his seasoned campaigners this afternoon off what could be a very fair mark. Connections certainly seem to think so.
The 2.05 is a mouth watering clash of the staying big guns with only the French star Kasbah Bliss missing. Alan King feels there will be no repercussions for leaving the headgear off Blazing Bailey today having seen him win on the flat without it, but the saying goes if its not broke, don’t fix it. His vast improvement over hurdles came with the application of headgear and whilst fully capable on his day, and whilst his record of Inglis Drever is only 4-2 in favour of Inglis on completed starts, Blazing Bailey has at least been steadily closing the gap. He should have a fitness edge today on Inglis Drever but the decision of leaving his headgear off means I wouldn’t be backing him. I also couldn’t back Inglis Drever who despite being a tri World Hurdle winner and a winner on his reappearance here last season I just feel another year on his back could see him vulnerable and his tendency to hit a flat spot could see some of these just get first run on him. Petitfour out-battled the strong travelling Mobaasher at Wetherby and I expect both to be in the mix again but I’m not truly convinced that Mobaasher gets this trip and I have my doubts whether the Twiston-Davies’ charge is good enough at this level. Duc De Regniere is one I like and he stayed on stoutly according to the Racing Post last time over 2, 5f. He did stay on well, but stoutly was pushing it a bit. He is an improver and one I do think will run his race but for me I’m banking on a big price horse to upset the part at 28/1. Hills Of Aran has gone well at Newbury over hurdles, 2 places in competitive races and with a strong pace here almost assured he will be staying on strongly where it matters. Showing a battling attitude he out-battled an improving well handicapped Forest Pennant at Aintree and he also showed a tenacious attitude when winning at Cheltenham on New Years Day beating a useful Hennessy, in a competitive handicap hurdle. With Hills Of Aran you know he stays very well, loves the ground, has run well here and is still improving. This race could easily be set up for him and with AP siding for my second choice Duc De Regniere, Dickie Johnson could have picked up a cracking spare for a trainer who is not afraid to pitch his horses against the best and doesn’t always come out wrong.
The Hennessy is a cracking handicap chase and one of the more open in recent years.
It used to be a race which suited the lightweights but in the past three seasons, 11-12, 11-4 and 11-12 have been the winning weights and that indicates to say the bar has been raised. Its okay having 150 horses at the head of the weights and having 130 horses off low weights, those horses don’t have a massive jump to make, but there’s a difference when you get Gold Cup prospects in handicaps, they have something handicappers don’t have and that is pure raw ability. Denman, State Of Play and Trabolgan were all top class winners of this race and realistically if there is going to be a high class horse coming out of this race it has to come from, Knowhere, Snoopy Loopy, Monkerhostin, Alberta’s Run, My Will, Air Force Run, Big Bucks or Dear Villez.
Now of the above, Snoopy Loopy and Knowhere are horses who have already had their cream and for me Snoopy Loopy had a hard enough race last week to be a serious contender here.
Monkerhostincould role back the years today, I want him on my side. He is a grand jumper, stays well, loves the ground and will have improved massively for a seasonal bow when not knocked about at Wetherby. The horse is only 2lb higher than when he won the Betfred Gold Cup and with everything ticked in his box, I’m struggling to see why he is 66/1, Phillip Hobbs pulled out Parson’s Legacy earlier in the week but Dickie had already made the decision to ride Monkerhostin over Parsons Legacy and for me he’ll definitely beat more than what beats him, the stats say there wont be many finishers today and at 66s he is one to have on board.
Albertas Run is fancied having won the Sun Alliance last season but he showed nothing last time at Carlisle and I have my reservations about him at present. My Will is well handicapped but he looks 3rd choice on jockey bookings and his long absence remains a worry. Air Force One is not one I rate, and I’m not sure he’ll stay. He’s a good jumper but he hasn’t done it left handed and that is a major worry for me.
Big Bucks could be everything the Nicholls camp have hyped him up to be but for me I ain’t convinced, His jumping has never been great and for me he is quite an idle horse who does what he needs and no more, that is a worry to me and whilst he’ll love the ground, I wouldn’t be investing his name sake !!
Of the Nicholls trio I like Dear Villez, he looked good at Limerick and the Nicholls yard describe him as a massively improved horse this season. He keeps on improving, stays well, jumps excellent and has a jockey on board who will throw everything at him coming to last, Dear Villez will relish the ground and for me he will be staying on strongly where it matters I want him on my side.
Of those at the bottom of the weights I’ll add two to my aid of four, Verasi is one I like, and Gary Moore’s upbeat interview yesterday got me thinking, he sounded bullish and whilst he said there is no sort of gambles in this grade, I was enlightened to see Numide heavily backed and score 2 weeks back in a top class race. This horse will keep on staying on well and has been jumping nicely, for me the rain that keeps falling will really suit him and he is definitely well in off his mark, I’ll take him ew.
Finally I don’t like Island Flyer, his Wincanton form is not good enough and I would prefer Royal County Star who whilst the ground may have gone against, is in great order at home, Harvey Martin is worried about the tacky ground and whilst he believes he is well treated and comes here in good form, the ground may just see him out-stayed, he could be a good back to lay, as he’ll be going nicely throughout and its just a matter of will he get home, shrewd connections feel he is well treated but the tactics to try and overtake everything may not be the greatest given stamina concerns.
The 3.15 is competitive but Fleet Street must not be written off. He’ll prefer Newbury and he made a bad mistake early which saw him pulled up in the Paddy Power. He is back in good order at home and he has been schooling nicely prior to this run. I think he is an improving and exciting type and I expect him to go well here.
We finish the day with the Gerry Fielden, Khyber Kim is interesting for a new yard given he was once held in the highest regard but for me we’ll finish today how we finished yesterday, with a Hobbs hotshot. PRINCE TAIME is my Newbury Nap and this horse defeated Ouzbeck when the King horse had ideal conditions as a novice yet one is now rated 153 and the other 125. Prince Taime is the latter, and whilst many will argue Ouzbeck has improved since, Prince Taime was badly in need of the run on his only start in the spring and he blew up when crashing through the last, he however showed great guts to cling on for a dead heat and I can assure you he is better than that effort. He has been showing all the required promise of late and he is similarly compared to Snap Tie and Copper Bleu who are both very promising types. He is considered seriously well handicapped by connections and at 13/2 he is a cracking ew bet today to wrap up the card.
If Newcastle gets the go ahead, stick a dime on Battlecry (3.00). He was done for fitness on his return and sulked not getting his own way out in front. The talented David England, rides today and he will surely go to the fore and he can test Finger On The Pulse’s stamina who failed to get 3m at Punchestown last season. I doubt his stamina and see Battlecry’s front running tactics getting him home in front of his rivals. The danger for me is the improving One Sniff who has a great attitude and whilst he is lightly raced at the age of nine, he does stay well and has been considered a better chance by connections than Harmony Brig who shaped with promise last time, I’ll take him as the danger to Battle Cry.
The Fighting Fifth (3.30) is a cracking contest and Sublimity, Harchibald and Punjabi are all interesting but I was told Blue Bajan would blow up last time and whilst he ran a belter in 3rd he did look tired off the last. Further improvement is needed today but he is a horse who has always promised big things and when you consider he is around 10/1 I feel he is cracking ew value. He’ll get the strong gallop he needs to be competitive and is another who travels easily so could be a good bet to trade off in running, either way he only needs one of the front three to not run their race to be gifted a place and I’ll take a chance that, that will happen or he will make the marked improvement needed on a course that will suit.
On the all weather I have two strong bets; DANSANT (3.25) ranks high on my radar today and in recent weeks, he has been impressing with Bonus in recent spins up the Al Bahathri and comes here at a course he loves. He badly needed the run last time out when not knocked about, and he comes here in top form. At around 4/1 he is a banker ew for me and I’m confident this top all weather performer can collect at this grade.
But my Bet of the day, comes in the 6.50 at Wolverhampton, Racketeer is nice and has been working well but I expect to see SAPTAPADI (NAP) contesting group contests next season and now here comes the Bold Claim I think he is a Derby horse, his work at home with Almuktahem has been impressive in recent weeks and Dale Gibson is a strong enough jockey to get him home on debut. He won’t be hard driven today but this horse has got me rather excited in recent weeks and I think he could be a little bit special, certainly worth a decent investment on a cold Saturday night at Wolverhampton, we will probably get a decent price, because some will be celebrating life changing money wins at Newbury and the others will be watching X-Factor on their wives requests, I however will be getting stuck into Saptapadi whom I think is something special.
Good Luck
Chris
Good Morning;
No matter how much rubbish you read in the daily papers, every single one will have a fact in it today, “Greyhounds Make Great Pets Novices' Hurdle”, yes I agree and so will many that Greyhounds make great pets, but I think Paul Nicholls read the title of the race wrong, I think he thought it was open to Grey – Hounds. Cue today’s lay of the day. AMERICAN TRILOGY (LAY) is both of the above in my opinion, a Grey and yes a Hound, i.e Dog. The impressive French import was a fair tool on the flat but whilst he caught the eye winning in style at Aintree his resolution was put to the sword at Cheltenham last time out. Travelling like the best horse in the race he cruised up into contention coming down the hill, but no sooner had he looked like he would score in decisive style, he folded tamely. The one thing I will give him credit for was numerous fine leaps, he’ll come into his own when sent chasing. The tough and likeable Golan Way gave the thou shall not pass attitude I love to see in a hurdler and it seemed American Trilogy said okay rather than put up a fight, he was also toiling up the hill which questions in my mind whether he will truly be a strong 2m over hurdles, either way I don’t trust him, he showed no guts at Cheltenham and with the Nicholls team looking a bit down in the dumps, I think the 9/4 has to be laid. Moves Goodenough and Norman The Great has showed enough in their hurdling starts to rate a serious danger, whilst the hurdling debutante Peppertree Lane adds spice to the mix, a very smart performer on the level for Mark Johnston, he will relish conditions and was by far a better horse than the favourite on the level, so there is no reason to expect American Trilogy to be better than him over obstacles, however American Trilogy’s hardest task will be to concede 8lb to the highly promising Cockney Trucker (Bet-Strong). Phillip Hobbs’ horses are running well at present and the Presenting gelding will be suited by today’s conditions down to the ground, Presenting’s are battled hardened warriors who give their all and Cockney Trucker despite being outpaced at Cheltenham showed a real likeable attitude to stay on smartly into 3rd, in what is looking a strong Cheltenham Maiden Hurdle. Gutsy winner Dee Ee Williams followed up in good style at Ascot, whilst 4th placed Alfie Flits made little work of defeating a decent field at Haydock next time out. 6th placed Sunsetten also was a winner next time out at Ludlow, beating a strongly fancied Henderson horse whilst 8th placed Edgbriar got off the mark here yesterday. 9th placed Unfurled who re-opposes here managed a second next time, so for me that Cheltenham race looks rock solid, which can’t be said of American Trilogy’s win at Chepstow or his 3rd at Cheltenham. In both races the horses close have been subsequently turned over, Over Sixty 2nd at Cheltenham was disappointing here on Thursday when only 2nd in a fair contest whilst the form of his debut win took a massive dent when close up 2nd Hernando Royal could only manage 4th off a mark of 116 next time out, the 3rd may have won next time but he made hard work of a weak contest and that makes me feel that the Nicholls horse is no better than a mid 120s horse at present. Arguably Cockney Trucker looks nearer the high 130s and his Champion Bumper 8th only beaten 13L was another sound performance. I do believe Cockney Trucker will do better over 2m 4f, but the ground was holding yesterday and was suiting the strong stamina types. I think Cockney Trucker could end up a serious Ballymore Properties Hurdle type this season and I’m more than happy to have a strong bet around 2/1 and lay the 9/4 shot American Trilogy who has drifted slightly already from his forecasted 11/8 favourites tag.
The Fulke Walwyn chase has lost some of its glitz from when it attracted promising chasers in the 90s but there are a couple in here at long odds that look overpriced. Artipreuil showed a taking attitude last time and under strong Joe Tizzard drive he showed a willing attitude to collect. Up 10lb he will need to improve but he’ll love the ground and he stays and jumps well. Also I’m drawn to Turbulance at a staggering 14/1. It was a good race he filled the bridesmaid role in at Leicester and he was staying on strongly where it mattered. He is a very neat jumper and Noel Chance’s horses always improve for going handicapping. Nick Scholfield takes the rains today and given it looked a strong race at Leicester, I feel he has been let in lightly off 119. He is value ew.
The 1.35 is an open looking contest and its disappointing to see the former Champion Chase runner Oneway lose most of his ability, he showed little under his rider/trainer last time and whilst he could strip fitter here, he looks a horse which has lost his way a little. A mark of 136 see’s him very well treated and he does like it here but you could only risk small stakes at 33s trusting him to return to form, he needs to show something more but there’s is no doubting he is thrown in if returning to former form here.
However the Nicky Henderson team will be hoping of big things from Petit Robin today and they have always regarded him a smart chaser in the making, running off his hurdles mark first time over fences (In UK) against seasoned campaigners will get many people pressing pink rather than Blue but he was a smart looking chaser unbeaten in two starts in his native France and he gave a favourable impression when winning here last winter beating a smart type of Nick Williams in Beshabar who has just been announced as being out for the season since joining a new trainer with an injury and for me Petit Robin is an exciting enough prospect to see off his seasoned campaigners this afternoon off what could be a very fair mark. Connections certainly seem to think so.
The 2.05 is a mouth watering clash of the staying big guns with only the French star Kasbah Bliss missing. Alan King feels there will be no repercussions for leaving the headgear off Blazing Bailey today having seen him win on the flat without it, but the saying goes if its not broke, don’t fix it. His vast improvement over hurdles came with the application of headgear and whilst fully capable on his day, and whilst his record of Inglis Drever is only 4-2 in favour of Inglis on completed starts, Blazing Bailey has at least been steadily closing the gap. He should have a fitness edge today on Inglis Drever but the decision of leaving his headgear off means I wouldn’t be backing him. I also couldn’t back Inglis Drever who despite being a tri World Hurdle winner and a winner on his reappearance here last season I just feel another year on his back could see him vulnerable and his tendency to hit a flat spot could see some of these just get first run on him. Petitfour out-battled the strong travelling Mobaasher at Wetherby and I expect both to be in the mix again but I’m not truly convinced that Mobaasher gets this trip and I have my doubts whether the Twiston-Davies’ charge is good enough at this level. Duc De Regniere is one I like and he stayed on stoutly according to the Racing Post last time over 2, 5f. He did stay on well, but stoutly was pushing it a bit. He is an improver and one I do think will run his race but for me I’m banking on a big price horse to upset the part at 28/1. Hills Of Aran has gone well at Newbury over hurdles, 2 places in competitive races and with a strong pace here almost assured he will be staying on strongly where it matters. Showing a battling attitude he out-battled an improving well handicapped Forest Pennant at Aintree and he also showed a tenacious attitude when winning at Cheltenham on New Years Day beating a useful Hennessy, in a competitive handicap hurdle. With Hills Of Aran you know he stays very well, loves the ground, has run well here and is still improving. This race could easily be set up for him and with AP siding for my second choice Duc De Regniere, Dickie Johnson could have picked up a cracking spare for a trainer who is not afraid to pitch his horses against the best and doesn’t always come out wrong.
The Hennessy is a cracking handicap chase and one of the more open in recent years.
It used to be a race which suited the lightweights but in the past three seasons, 11-12, 11-4 and 11-12 have been the winning weights and that indicates to say the bar has been raised. Its okay having 150 horses at the head of the weights and having 130 horses off low weights, those horses don’t have a massive jump to make, but there’s a difference when you get Gold Cup prospects in handicaps, they have something handicappers don’t have and that is pure raw ability. Denman, State Of Play and Trabolgan were all top class winners of this race and realistically if there is going to be a high class horse coming out of this race it has to come from, Knowhere, Snoopy Loopy, Monkerhostin, Alberta’s Run, My Will, Air Force Run, Big Bucks or Dear Villez.
Now of the above, Snoopy Loopy and Knowhere are horses who have already had their cream and for me Snoopy Loopy had a hard enough race last week to be a serious contender here.
Monkerhostincould role back the years today, I want him on my side. He is a grand jumper, stays well, loves the ground and will have improved massively for a seasonal bow when not knocked about at Wetherby. The horse is only 2lb higher than when he won the Betfred Gold Cup and with everything ticked in his box, I’m struggling to see why he is 66/1, Phillip Hobbs pulled out Parson’s Legacy earlier in the week but Dickie had already made the decision to ride Monkerhostin over Parsons Legacy and for me he’ll definitely beat more than what beats him, the stats say there wont be many finishers today and at 66s he is one to have on board.
Albertas Run is fancied having won the Sun Alliance last season but he showed nothing last time at Carlisle and I have my reservations about him at present. My Will is well handicapped but he looks 3rd choice on jockey bookings and his long absence remains a worry. Air Force One is not one I rate, and I’m not sure he’ll stay. He’s a good jumper but he hasn’t done it left handed and that is a major worry for me.
Big Bucks could be everything the Nicholls camp have hyped him up to be but for me I ain’t convinced, His jumping has never been great and for me he is quite an idle horse who does what he needs and no more, that is a worry to me and whilst he’ll love the ground, I wouldn’t be investing his name sake !!
Of the Nicholls trio I like Dear Villez, he looked good at Limerick and the Nicholls yard describe him as a massively improved horse this season. He keeps on improving, stays well, jumps excellent and has a jockey on board who will throw everything at him coming to last, Dear Villez will relish the ground and for me he will be staying on strongly where it matters I want him on my side.
Of those at the bottom of the weights I’ll add two to my aid of four, Verasi is one I like, and Gary Moore’s upbeat interview yesterday got me thinking, he sounded bullish and whilst he said there is no sort of gambles in this grade, I was enlightened to see Numide heavily backed and score 2 weeks back in a top class race. This horse will keep on staying on well and has been jumping nicely, for me the rain that keeps falling will really suit him and he is definitely well in off his mark, I’ll take him ew.
Finally I don’t like Island Flyer, his Wincanton form is not good enough and I would prefer Royal County Star who whilst the ground may have gone against, is in great order at home, Harvey Martin is worried about the tacky ground and whilst he believes he is well treated and comes here in good form, the ground may just see him out-stayed, he could be a good back to lay, as he’ll be going nicely throughout and its just a matter of will he get home, shrewd connections feel he is well treated but the tactics to try and overtake everything may not be the greatest given stamina concerns.
The 3.15 is competitive but Fleet Street must not be written off. He’ll prefer Newbury and he made a bad mistake early which saw him pulled up in the Paddy Power. He is back in good order at home and he has been schooling nicely prior to this run. I think he is an improving and exciting type and I expect him to go well here.
We finish the day with the Gerry Fielden, Khyber Kim is interesting for a new yard given he was once held in the highest regard but for me we’ll finish today how we finished yesterday, with a Hobbs hotshot. PRINCE TAIME is my Newbury Nap and this horse defeated Ouzbeck when the King horse had ideal conditions as a novice yet one is now rated 153 and the other 125. Prince Taime is the latter, and whilst many will argue Ouzbeck has improved since, Prince Taime was badly in need of the run on his only start in the spring and he blew up when crashing through the last, he however showed great guts to cling on for a dead heat and I can assure you he is better than that effort. He has been showing all the required promise of late and he is similarly compared to Snap Tie and Copper Bleu who are both very promising types. He is considered seriously well handicapped by connections and at 13/2 he is a cracking ew bet today to wrap up the card.
If Newcastle gets the go ahead, stick a dime on Battlecry (3.00). He was done for fitness on his return and sulked not getting his own way out in front. The talented David England, rides today and he will surely go to the fore and he can test Finger On The Pulse’s stamina who failed to get 3m at Punchestown last season. I doubt his stamina and see Battlecry’s front running tactics getting him home in front of his rivals. The danger for me is the improving One Sniff who has a great attitude and whilst he is lightly raced at the age of nine, he does stay well and has been considered a better chance by connections than Harmony Brig who shaped with promise last time, I’ll take him as the danger to Battle Cry.
The Fighting Fifth (3.30) is a cracking contest and Sublimity, Harchibald and Punjabi are all interesting but I was told Blue Bajan would blow up last time and whilst he ran a belter in 3rd he did look tired off the last. Further improvement is needed today but he is a horse who has always promised big things and when you consider he is around 10/1 I feel he is cracking ew value. He’ll get the strong gallop he needs to be competitive and is another who travels easily so could be a good bet to trade off in running, either way he only needs one of the front three to not run their race to be gifted a place and I’ll take a chance that, that will happen or he will make the marked improvement needed on a course that will suit.
On the all weather I have two strong bets; DANSANT (3.25) ranks high on my radar today and in recent weeks, he has been impressing with Bonus in recent spins up the Al Bahathri and comes here at a course he loves. He badly needed the run last time out when not knocked about, and he comes here in top form. At around 4/1 he is a banker ew for me and I’m confident this top all weather performer can collect at this grade.
But my Bet of the day, comes in the 6.50 at Wolverhampton, Racketeer is nice and has been working well but I expect to see SAPTAPADI (NAP) contesting group contests next season and now here comes the Bold Claim I think he is a Derby horse, his work at home with Almuktahem has been impressive in recent weeks and Dale Gibson is a strong enough jockey to get him home on debut. He won’t be hard driven today but this horse has got me rather excited in recent weeks and I think he could be a little bit special, certainly worth a decent investment on a cold Saturday night at Wolverhampton, we will probably get a decent price, because some will be celebrating life changing money wins at Newbury and the others will be watching X-Factor on their wives requests, I however will be getting stuck into Saptapadi whom I think is something special.
Good Luck
Chris
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