Nassau stakes

sunybay

sunybay

At the Start
Joined
May 4, 2003
Messages
4,184
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Madrid
Any opinions?

Looks like The Fugue is not running
Sky lantern and just the judge likely to run

What ground expected?
 
Favourites:Sky Lantern (steamer11/4), Integral (6), Secret Gesture (8), Hot Snap (9), Just The Judge (9), Scintillula (11), Sajjhaa (12), Just Pretending (14), Talent (14), Ambivalent (16), Thistle Bird (20), Winsili (20), Beatrice Aurore (25), Moment In Time (25), Banoffee (40), Magical Dream (40), Dancewiththedevil (66), Semayyel (150)
 
One has the feeling that either this is going to be to the well once too often for Sky lantern or she is going to hack up - hot weather forecast from Thursday so ground should suit her by then . Hot Snap is a fascinating runner.
 
Kind of agree. Just Pretending seems overpriced, ran well in the Irish Oaks and that form has been franked.
 
Surprised that Sky Lantern's stamina is being taken on trust as much as it is. Red Clubs doesn't have much of a record beyond 1m and there's hardly loads of stamina on the dam side. Yes, she's a half sister to Shanty Star that won the Queen's Vase but he was the exception rather than the norm.
 
davidjohnson said:
Surprised that Sky Lantern's stamina is being taken on trust as much as it is. Red Clubs doesn't have much of a record beyond 1m and there's hardly loads of stamina on the dam side. Yes, she's a half sister to Shanty Star that won the Queen's Vase but he was the exception rather than the norm.
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Well the Hannons are confident ! That is good enough for me this week.
 
Hot Snap did not like GF lto. Looks more certain over the extra distance if genuine good ground.
 
I'm happy to take Sky Lantern on with something at a bigger price in Sajjhaa who comes to the race a fresh horse, with her last run in Dubai at the end of April. It is not neccesarily a proveable angle before the event, but I think this might be one showpiece too many for Sky Lantern.
 
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There's a tendency to underrate foreign form, and it certainly shows in Sajjhaa's price for this.
She's been a revelation this year, winning 4 from 5 and a slightly unlucky 4th in the other - the last 3 against colts, and all better form than her opposition can muster.
10f would be at the top end of her distance range, but the fact she reappears over this sharp track suggests it's been the plan for a long time, and looks a cracking bet at the double figure prices available.
 
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Hot Snap's absence since the Guineas suggests to me there were other issues than the ground in the Guineas. She's really difficult to get a handle on, but her presence stops me having a good go on Just The Judge.

Reet, in my opinion, there's foreign form and then Dubai form, the latter of which doesn't stand up later in the season year after year. That said, her current price doesn't look notably short on her UK form to be fair.
 
Sajjaa's form in the UK though is nothing to write home about .

I am disappointed that Secret Gesture has chickened out and gone to Germany . I thought she was a very interesting runner.

7mm rain overnight will help some a lot more than Sky Lantern but it is expected to be a dry breezy day so it should be perfect good ground .
 
Speaking of the rain, does anyone have stats about how it might affect the draw in the Stewards' Cup?

I'm wondering if the rain will seep down the camber to the far rail, giving the high draws a slight advantage.

I don't think 7mm is a lot though. Some CoCs will fling that amount down to maintain the ground and, as you say, the breeze will help dissipate it. It might just allow them to let themselves down and give us very fast times again.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Speaking of the rain, does anyone have stats about how it might affect the draw in the Stewards' Cup?

I'm wondering if the rain will seep down the camber to the far rail, giving the high draws a slight advantage.

I don't think 7mm is a lot though. Some CoCs will fling that amount down to maintain the ground and, as you say, the breeze will help dissipate it. It might just allow them to let themselves down and give us very fast times again.
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The ground timed as perfect Good ground yesterday, would think will be similar today with a drying wind...won't be any really fast times imo
 
The Nell Gwyn form has stood up really well and the time was excellent. Hot Snap clearly wasn't herself in the Guineas. I wouldn't normally take the form of a classic trial over that of the classic for which it was a trial but in this case I'll make an exception. Trip and ground look perfect for Hot Snap today and if she gives her running I think she'll win. Mind you, putting my fancies up on here this week has been the kiss of death.
 
I think Hot Snap is the best fillie in teh race

conditions should suit, goes well fresh and the fact they are coming to gr1 straight says the fillie should be fit enough

also they had romantica in the entries and looks they have choosen this one,


Sky Latern , stamina in doubt , not great draw would prefer firmer ground


sajhaa could be the main danger , but weak in the market and should improve for the run


13/2 my kind of bet here
 
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