Right then, the key to Sundays is 'In Uniform', who reared and was re-saddled before rearing again and then running on 6th. At face value you'd suspect the horse has done for itself in the stalls? However, he was cleanly away and seemed to run ok for all his shenanigans (having now watched the race). I've waited until now for a second opinion, and would submit the following given that the horse has only raced 3 times (In Uniform);
On debut at Bath he won a maiden for an RPR of 81, he then had the misfortune to run into Hatta Fort and Swiss Franc in a race at Windsor where he came third but earned 89. At Maison Laffiette he was awarded an RPR of 84, suggesting to me that he's run near enough to his form to be capable of being used to project a performance off? Since he's exceeded his Bath rating where he carried the same weight, I'll start there first and invoke the stopwatch for a crude collateral projection of sorts.
In Uniform won the opening maiden over 5F in a time that was fast by +0.51 secs. The key to this card was the 'Listed' 6th race, also run over 5F on the same course, and won by Enticing in a time that beat standard by +2.95 (and broke the track record). In crude terms therefore over C&D the 3yo listed filly has beaten the 2yo maiden by 2.44 secs. If we divide this by 0.17 secs, we get 14.35L's. At Bath Enticing carried 9.0 against the 8.11 carried by the debutant, so to equalise completely punitively another 3Ibs needs to be put on the 2yo. At 5 Furlongs, 3.7Ibs = 1 length, so this is worth another 0.8L's. So we add to 14.35 + 0.8 to get 15.15L's off levels to Enticing (they would never meet on such terms of course, but the line of investigation is deliberately meant to be punitive)
Now Enticing came 5th in a particularly hot Kings Stand won at Royal Ascot by Miss Andretti (no small achievement in her own right given that 3 of the first 4 home were Australian). On the clock at levels Enticing beat In Uniform by 15.15L's. At Masison Laffiette Natagora has beaten the same horse in race trim by 5.5L's. I'm not completely sure what to do with Natagora, as she received 3Ibs from the colt. I could wallop 3Ibs on her back and assess her off levels, but since she wouldn't be required to face a colt without an allowance it seems something of a pointless exercise and thus false economy. In any case I've already penalised the 2yo colt by assessing him with an additional 3Ibs on his back to the 3yo filly in order to get a raw time comparison, so a double penalisation looks to be overly harsh, when it is debatable as to whether the first one was strictly justifiable. Anyway, taking the 5.5L's from 15.15 gives us 9.65L's (about neck and 9.5L's) away from Enticing. In other words about 1.64 secs off level weight to a horse that came 5th in the Kings Stand. In reality this would have equated to 19th place in the Kings Stand. Where as excuses for Bentley Biscuit (last) almost certainly existed, the 2yo would have beaten Richard Hannons Listed winner Dazed and Amazed by 3L's.
The other line through In Uniform involves Swiss Franc and Hatta Fort at Windsor. I'll deal with the runner up first, as this should render the Windsor Castle third irrelevant anyway. At Windsor Swiss Franc beat In Uniform 1.25L's receiving 5Ibs over 5F. Off level weights then this distance would be worth another 1.35L's, for something like 2.6L's (2 and a half plus a neck). In this case I'm going to penalise Natagora and put 3Ibs on her back at Maison Laffiette, and thus remove 0.8L's from her 5.5L win over In Uniform for a revised level of superiority of 4.75L's (remember the true level is 5.5L's with her fillies allowance, so again I'm being punitive in the name of caution).
So Natagora beat In Uniform 4.75L's Swiss Franc beat the same colt 2.60L's, meaning that Natagora would have beaten SWiss Franc a neck and 2L's. Swiss Franc let us not forget came second in the Coventry Stakes, 0.75L's behind Henrythenavigator. A crude projection therefore suggests that Natagora is 1L faster than Aiden O'Briens alleged 2yo 'good thing' (I expect other Ballydoyle 2yo's to emerge in the next month or so) not to mention a few we won't see until they're 3.
Going back to Maison Laffiette, the way Natagora and the runner up Wiki pulled away from the third home, suggests the runner up is worth noting too. History might just suggest he was unlucky to run into a very sharp filly here.
I'm not totally suprised as the time I had for Pascal Bary's filly at Longchamp was phenomenal and I was prepared to dismiss it in line with the usual French timings such was its strength. I was very wary of it though, as I had a hunch that since it involved a 4L win, and she was the only horse to break standard on the card, it might be a tad closer to being true than I might normally allow, although the scale of the rating was clearly wrong. (There wasn't enough races run on the same course that day) so I was deprived the opportunity to assess her with a check and balance.
The evidence from Maison Laffiette is equally puzzling, and I'm not sure I'd like to say definatively how to call this one. Uttrecht, winner of a Gp3, 3yo race for fillies over 9F holds the key. My critiscm of clerks of the course is well documented with regards to their going descriptions. No where is this more misleading than France. They'd call wet grass, Heavy. Masion Laffiette decided it was Good to Soft on Sunday. Pap!!!, it was Firm, and verging on the dangerous side of firm too I reckon.
Without putting any class par adjustments in, the following times were run to standard;
Straight course
+3.90
+4.10
+0.80
+3.50
Sprint course
-2.10
-0.50 (Natagora)
-1.90
The strange one is Uttrecht who ran +3.90 but is listed by the RP as not having run on the straight course? (they might have ammedned it since I last looked?) Clearly her time is much more consistent with those put up the straight course and wildly out of kilter with those on the sprint course? I have to suspect something of an anomoly. The corresponding 9F, 3yo handicap for fillies was won by Turfontein on the straight course in +0.80, so one would expect the Gp3 filly to beat this all things being equal. It might even be that there's a third course in play? or a timing error, either that or Uttrecht is a serious tool in her own right.
Natagora's TS figure isn't inspiring, and I can't help but wonder if Dave Edwards has been suckered a bit? She's 9.5L's faster than the claimer over C&D (remember French Claimers can be very strong on the Paris circuit and they bear little resemblence to their British equivilants as the French are much more inclined to trade horses this way). At mile aggregates I'm seriously struggling to believe that Uttrecht has gone 4.26 secs faster than Natagora (that's 25L's) not impossible, but even the French don't have tactically run 5F sprints and to get 3 of them on the same card!!!! looks most unlikely. For this reason I've struggled to hit on a speed rating for Natagora.
Anyway, is she an ante post proposition? Well I'm going to suggest that if she is, the gamble revolves around her running in blue colours by the end of the year. As a filly she's slightly less likely to command the attentions Godolphin though, and would need to continue winning Gp1's for the rest of the year, so you'd be wanting something upwards of 66/1 for a Guineas bet, as it's unlikely she'll be lining up at Newmarket under her current ownership, and I'd be very suprised if you could find anyone to quote you, (yet alone a fair price 25/1) for the Pouliches. A Coronation Stakes bet would carry the same caveat, though you'd want about 100/1 in this case.
In short the answer has to the ante-post proposition would be no, but i still can't satisfy myself how good she is. Rating through 'In Uniform' is a blind piece of faith, and I'm sure you'd want something else to confirm it
Put simply a 2yo can't run 5F in the time she seems to have (or certainly shouldn't be able). Does anyone else hold a rating for her? have an opinion? or can offer an explanation?
Wiki would come out at 92.36
