Natagora

Warbler

At the Start
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
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My attention has been drawn to a performance at Longchamp on June 14th by a 2yo filly whose just registered a sonic boom in the Paris area. I duly rated it up and my eyes popped :eek: Put simply a 2yo can't run 5F in the time she seems to have (or certainly shouldn't be able). Does anyone else hold a rating for her? have an opinion? or can offer an explanation?
 
I would take the view that the sprint course was running a lot faster than the round course.
 
Right then, the key to Sundays is 'In Uniform', who reared and was re-saddled before rearing again and then running on 6th. At face value you'd suspect the horse has done for itself in the stalls? However, he was cleanly away and seemed to run ok for all his shenanigans (having now watched the race). I've waited until now for a second opinion, and would submit the following given that the horse has only raced 3 times (In Uniform);

On debut at Bath he won a maiden for an RPR of 81, he then had the misfortune to run into Hatta Fort and Swiss Franc in a race at Windsor where he came third but earned 89. At Maison Laffiette he was awarded an RPR of 84, suggesting to me that he's run near enough to his form to be capable of being used to project a performance off? Since he's exceeded his Bath rating where he carried the same weight, I'll start there first and invoke the stopwatch for a crude collateral projection of sorts.

In Uniform won the opening maiden over 5F in a time that was fast by +0.51 secs. The key to this card was the 'Listed' 6th race, also run over 5F on the same course, and won by Enticing in a time that beat standard by +2.95 (and broke the track record). In crude terms therefore over C&D the 3yo listed filly has beaten the 2yo maiden by 2.44 secs. If we divide this by 0.17 secs, we get 14.35L's. At Bath Enticing carried 9.0 against the 8.11 carried by the debutant, so to equalise completely punitively another 3Ibs needs to be put on the 2yo. At 5 Furlongs, 3.7Ibs = 1 length, so this is worth another 0.8L's. So we add to 14.35 + 0.8 to get 15.15L's off levels to Enticing (they would never meet on such terms of course, but the line of investigation is deliberately meant to be punitive)

Now Enticing came 5th in a particularly hot Kings Stand won at Royal Ascot by Miss Andretti (no small achievement in her own right given that 3 of the first 4 home were Australian). On the clock at levels Enticing beat In Uniform by 15.15L's. At Masison Laffiette Natagora has beaten the same horse in race trim by 5.5L's. I'm not completely sure what to do with Natagora, as she received 3Ibs from the colt. I could wallop 3Ibs on her back and assess her off levels, but since she wouldn't be required to face a colt without an allowance it seems something of a pointless exercise and thus false economy. In any case I've already penalised the 2yo colt by assessing him with an additional 3Ibs on his back to the 3yo filly in order to get a raw time comparison, so a double penalisation looks to be overly harsh, when it is debatable as to whether the first one was strictly justifiable. Anyway, taking the 5.5L's from 15.15 gives us 9.65L's (about neck and 9.5L's) away from Enticing. In other words about 1.64 secs off level weight to a horse that came 5th in the Kings Stand. In reality this would have equated to 19th place in the Kings Stand. Where as excuses for Bentley Biscuit (last) almost certainly existed, the 2yo would have beaten Richard Hannons Listed winner Dazed and Amazed by 3L's.

The other line through In Uniform involves Swiss Franc and Hatta Fort at Windsor. I'll deal with the runner up first, as this should render the Windsor Castle third irrelevant anyway. At Windsor Swiss Franc beat In Uniform 1.25L's receiving 5Ibs over 5F. Off level weights then this distance would be worth another 1.35L's, for something like 2.6L's (2 and a half plus a neck). In this case I'm going to penalise Natagora and put 3Ibs on her back at Maison Laffiette, and thus remove 0.8L's from her 5.5L win over In Uniform for a revised level of superiority of 4.75L's (remember the true level is 5.5L's with her fillies allowance, so again I'm being punitive in the name of caution).

So Natagora beat In Uniform 4.75L's Swiss Franc beat the same colt 2.60L's, meaning that Natagora would have beaten SWiss Franc a neck and 2L's. Swiss Franc let us not forget came second in the Coventry Stakes, 0.75L's behind Henrythenavigator. A crude projection therefore suggests that Natagora is 1L faster than Aiden O'Briens alleged 2yo 'good thing' (I expect other Ballydoyle 2yo's to emerge in the next month or so) not to mention a few we won't see until they're 3.

Going back to Maison Laffiette, the way Natagora and the runner up Wiki pulled away from the third home, suggests the runner up is worth noting too. History might just suggest he was unlucky to run into a very sharp filly here.

I'm not totally suprised as the time I had for Pascal Bary's filly at Longchamp was phenomenal and I was prepared to dismiss it in line with the usual French timings such was its strength. I was very wary of it though, as I had a hunch that since it involved a 4L win, and she was the only horse to break standard on the card, it might be a tad closer to being true than I might normally allow, although the scale of the rating was clearly wrong. (There wasn't enough races run on the same course that day) so I was deprived the opportunity to assess her with a check and balance.

The evidence from Maison Laffiette is equally puzzling, and I'm not sure I'd like to say definatively how to call this one. Uttrecht, winner of a Gp3, 3yo race for fillies over 9F holds the key. My critiscm of clerks of the course is well documented with regards to their going descriptions. No where is this more misleading than France. They'd call wet grass, Heavy. Masion Laffiette decided it was Good to Soft on Sunday. Pap!!!, it was Firm, and verging on the dangerous side of firm too I reckon.

Without putting any class par adjustments in, the following times were run to standard;

Straight course

+3.90
+4.10
+0.80
+3.50

Sprint course

-2.10
-0.50 (Natagora)
-1.90

The strange one is Uttrecht who ran +3.90 but is listed by the RP as not having run on the straight course? (they might have ammedned it since I last looked?) Clearly her time is much more consistent with those put up the straight course and wildly out of kilter with those on the sprint course? I have to suspect something of an anomoly. The corresponding 9F, 3yo handicap for fillies was won by Turfontein on the straight course in +0.80, so one would expect the Gp3 filly to beat this all things being equal. It might even be that there's a third course in play? or a timing error, either that or Uttrecht is a serious tool in her own right.

Natagora's TS figure isn't inspiring, and I can't help but wonder if Dave Edwards has been suckered a bit? She's 9.5L's faster than the claimer over C&D (remember French Claimers can be very strong on the Paris circuit and they bear little resemblence to their British equivilants as the French are much more inclined to trade horses this way). At mile aggregates I'm seriously struggling to believe that Uttrecht has gone 4.26 secs faster than Natagora (that's 25L's) not impossible, but even the French don't have tactically run 5F sprints and to get 3 of them on the same card!!!! looks most unlikely. For this reason I've struggled to hit on a speed rating for Natagora.

Anyway, is she an ante post proposition? Well I'm going to suggest that if she is, the gamble revolves around her running in blue colours by the end of the year. As a filly she's slightly less likely to command the attentions Godolphin though, and would need to continue winning Gp1's for the rest of the year, so you'd be wanting something upwards of 66/1 for a Guineas bet, as it's unlikely she'll be lining up at Newmarket under her current ownership, and I'd be very suprised if you could find anyone to quote you, (yet alone a fair price 25/1) for the Pouliches. A Coronation Stakes bet would carry the same caveat, though you'd want about 100/1 in this case.

In short the answer has to the ante-post proposition would be no, but i still can't satisfy myself how good she is. Rating through 'In Uniform' is a blind piece of faith, and I'm sure you'd want something else to confirm it
 
Warbler:

Was this the filly's first run? If it was, never discount the fact that she may have been bolting, rather than racing.
 
Which race? The Longchamp one at the head of the thread or the Maison Laffiette one?

Sunday's was her fourth race. She came second on debut and won her next won. She then won a Listed race by 4L's at Longchamp in what was theoretically a very fast time (alright impossibly fast) which is why I sounded the cautionary note as I couldn't possibly have been happy with the figure for the reasons explained. This is when she first came to my atention.

I've just got my copy of the Weekender and note that Dave Edwards has picked up on the Maison Laffiette card in his timewarp section, and come to pretty much an identical conclusion regarding the dishonest clerk. Luckily he has confirmed my suspicion about which course Uttrecht ran on, which has enabled me attempt to make a rating although it is somewhat contaminated by the fact that the other races run on sprint course were claimers, and assessing French claimers accurately is just about the hardest race type to handle over the Channel (bit like 2yo maidens here). If I use my normal methods I bring her out 93.11 which is faster than anything at Royal Ascot, but is on a split and limited sample composed of notoriously difficult to assess races :rolleyes: Wiki would come out at 92.36

I'd be pretty confident I've been a bit generous to her, and can set about handicapping her myself (seeing what class pars I'd need to assign to the other horses to speed them up in order to bring Natagora onto a level with Henrythenavigator et al). I'd be reasonably happy however that she's right in the frame and probably ahead of any 2yo filly we've since this year
 
Excellent stuff, Warbs, I think.................'fraid you lost me quite early on! :shy:

I was at Bath when In Uniform won and he looked useful and performed well that day.
 
This horse has proven very difficult rate from the moment she first came to my attention earnings figures which just weren't possible, and I think I prety well conceeded as much. Since then however I've managed to get two other tentative fixes on her and both bring her out ahead of any filly this side of the channel.

In winning her Gp3 she came in at 91.48
In winning her Gp2 she improved further by 2.79L's to earn 94.27

Nujoom Dubai would be expected to run to about 93.38 NTO, which on my projection puts Natagora nearly a length ahead of the fastest 2yo filly we've seen so far, and also ahead of You'resothrilling whose run from the mid to high 80's on the sort of improvement curve that is again typical.

85.48 (beaten by Pencil Hill on debut)
88.58 (projection through Soarise Abu)
88.70+ (beaten by Nujoom Dubai when unlucky in running)
84.70 (slightly slower race at Newmarket)

The problem with Natagora is she's usually ended up having to be rated on split samples which is unreliable enough, and compounded by the fact that she's been on French cards, which can flatter her. My now thouigh we're starting to get a feel for her, and if my initial evaluation of 103 or whatever it was when she won a Listed race over 5F's by as many lengths was highly dubious verging on the lunatic, the subsequent low to mid 90's looks much more realistic.

I think she's probably very good, but how many French fillies line up at Newmarket come May? yet alone backing one this far out. Stan James were showing 33's last night (which I expect has long gone - as I can't believe they'd stand alone). I reckon she's only 10% likely to find her way to the 1K which makes her about 9/2 or 4/1 :rant: Shame, but not for me. In any case there should be enough patriotic money and hype horses from our own stables by then to ensure she'll be in the region 7/1+ on the day should she eventually line up I'd have thought, but if she carries on at this rate beating colts in Group races I can't believe that she might not want to get her travel brochures and see what it's like in Dubai in the winter (which really should scupper her) even if it would considerably enhance her prospects of taking part at Newmarket.
 
Oh Bollicks, that's torn her prospects :D

Finally, Nick Mordin has found Natagora, unlike myself whose been a cautious advocate, he's in no doubt (expect a dramatic decline from now on in).

Taken from his websites weekly report.

NATAGORA LOOKS SOMETHING SPECIAL

One of the most striking trends in European racing over the last dozen years or so has been has been the steady disappearance of top class horses from juvenile racing in France.

In the old days two year olds like Arazi used to rack up loads of Group wins and beat top class international competition. But now the vast majority of top French horses don't even race as two year olds. The few that do are usually restricted to a single run in a maiden in October or later.

French two year old racing is now so weak that the vast majority of juvenile events before August are actually claiming contests. If the French do produce a top class juvenile it's invariably late in the season over a mile or more. Sprints are basically novelty events in France. So the French just don't aim to breed youngsters that are competitive with the early season speedballs to be found in Britain and France

Occasionally though a top class juvenile does emerge from shorter races in France, and this seems to be the case with NATAGORA (37) who won last week's Prix Robert Papin in fast time.

I thought Natagora would have little chance against the Italian filly MAGRITTE (36) after looking at the statistics. These showed that foreign-trained two year olds like Magritte which previously placed in Group company had an exceptional record in the Prix Robert Papin since 1993. Such runners had contested the Prix Robert Papin on nine occasions. And the only thing that prevented a clean sweep by the raiders was the brilliant French filly Divine Proportions who just held off the Italian runner Shifting Place in 2004.

Magritte had won all three of her starts by two lengths or more and was very impressive in the Premio Primi Passi at San Siro on her most recent outing. Watch the video of that race (by doing a video search of the race name on Google) and you'll see what I mean. She led all the way in that contest and instantly had all of her rivals in trouble when she kicked on inside the two furlong pole. She just ripped the field apart with the surge she produced and was going further and further away, full of run towards the finish.

When the camera shows a close up of Magritte after the race it's clear she is remarkably mature for a two year old filly. In fact she's so big, strong and muscular she looks more like a three year old colt.

Sure enough the big Italian filly duelled with Natagora all the way as the pair pulled clear of the field. But she couldn't quite contain her French rival close home and went under by three parts of a length.

Magritte is entered in the Lowther Stakes and would be my choice for that race if she lined up. I'd like to see her go for the Chevelely Park Stakes as well. I think she's a seriously good filly.

Unlike Magritte, Natagora is probably going to be effective beyond sprint trips. After all, although her sire ran second in a Group 1 at six furlongs he was by Sunday Silence and won a Group 2 over a mile and placed over longer.

Natagora's dam won over ten furlongs. And the eight wins scored by her progeny other than Natagora were all over nine furlongs or more. In fact two of her other three foals to race have shown decent form over jumps.

As I've mentioned, the only French filly to beat a Group placed foreign runner and win the Prix Robert Papin since 1993 was Divine Proportions. It might well be that Natagora turns out to be as good. Certainly she looks the best prospect we've seen so far for the Prix Marcel Boussac.

 
No - I'm boycotting the course, unless in a position to bet from race to race given the way that draw bias switches around there from meeting to meeting
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Jul 4 2007, 08:39 AM
Going back to Maison Laffiette, the way Natagora and the runner up Wilki pulled away from the third home, suggests the runner up is worth noting too. History might just suggest she was unlucky to run into a very sharp filly here.

Natagora has since won the Gp2 Prix Robert Papin in a race record time, pulling 3L's clear of the 3rd horse home, as only the Italian filly (Magritte) 0.75L's could live with her. If I'm right, then the 9/2 (ladbrokes) about Wilki in 14.05 Gp3 race at Deauville today might look tempting if Mr Fallon can oblige. In fact the race is probably crying out for a forecast, but with Wilki similarly coming up just 0.75L's shy of Natagora in the Prix Du Bois there appears to be a collateral level of demonstrable form rather than promise to back?

Betfred were 9/2 about Wilki but on ringing the lousiest bookie on the planet, I discovered they'd stopped my account :laughing: bless 'em
 
I've only seen a result, and don't how things panned out or what the distances were even, but I believe she came 3rd
 
Sounds like the winner could be useful. All I need now is the unbacked Mi Emma to win :laughing:
 
Natagora & Fleeting Spirit are two pretty smart fillies judged just on todays time figure alone. I got a 110 for the winner which is a very high 2yo filly rating..if wfa improvement is just average between now and next year both should be capable of producing 124/125 ratings as 3yo's..thats pretty smart for the females.

Well done Warbler, hope you dipped in.
 
I did, and for a bit more than I might normally (a bit of dutch courage as it happens) so credit to the patience of the Ladbrokes call handler who had to endure my less than coherent striking of a bet after I tried backing her for a race on the wrong day that she wasn't entered for. In truth though, all I've done is recoup 'black' Septembers losses with a bit to boot.
 
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