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"National Hunt" Mares' Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

Apprentice
Joined
May 7, 2023
Messages
1,686
Location
Hampshire
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Followango has spent much of her career thus far racing in the Ffos Las soup - if as effective on a likely quicker surface here, she seems on a fair enough mark to me.

She's 16/1, but they're betting to 138% and you'd like to know this would cut up and she's running to be confident she'll just get shorter.
 
Just a word about the current favourite.

“I’m very excited about her as I think she is one of my better prospects to be honest with you. Not many win two bumpers over here. I think she is well above average and I would be really disappointed if she didn’t make into a significantly better horse now going over hurdles. She will start at Exeter on November 18 in a National Hunt mares’ novices’ hurdle over two and a quarter miles which is a fabulous track for her. There is then a Listed mares’ novices’ hurdle at Haydock back over two miles and three furlongs. If that all goes well you would love to end up in the Jane Seymour at Sandown in February as she copes well with the mud, and I think she is quite a strong stayer.“Queens Gamble won her bumpers with a smart turn of foot whereas Jasmine Bliss won hers by out galloping the others. She is well above average.”

It looked as though a Harry a Derham was being grossly optimistic after a fairly promising second at Lingfield was followed by a desperately disappointing run at Ffos Las in January. Though I think that run can be written off because HD’s horses were woefully underperforming at that time as a result of his gallop being washed away at the end of November by storm Bert. Since then she has had a couple of easy wins achieving a personal best in the last one at Southwell.

All those runs were Class4 and this race is a Grade2 and massive jump for her to cope with. The market will be interesting.
 
Very true, there’s a couple more Sunset Marquesa, Betty’s Tiara, Followango, but you can’t say any have shined brightly. Allowing for the fact that it doesn’t look a strong entry for a Grade2 there seems plenty of room for something to jump out of the woodwork that is regarded as competitive at that level (bit like Jasmin Bliss). That’s why I think the market will be informative.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
I hereby declare this Newbury event the big betting race of the forthcoming weekend, and your mission dear reader, should you wish to accept it, is to solve this trappy, 17-entry, handicap and deliver yet another Saturday winner into the loving arms of the Talking Horses massive....

Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-r...unt/national-hunt-mares-novices-hurdle/winner
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I like 2 in this Crazierthandaisy 11/1 general
Come on Nia 33/1 Paddy Power
These two are closely handicapped on their run at Warwick earlier in the season.
Crazierthandaisy is N Hendersons 2nd string but she is very consistent
Come on Nia flopped last time out at ffos las in heavy ground ,but the better going here should suit.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Scarlet O'Tara interests me at 9/1 best.

Disappointing and bled from the nose when last seen, but this is her ground and she had hitherto looked progressive.
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Of the market leaders Scarlet does makes appeal.

The one at a bigger price that catches the eye is Of Course You Can. There was a win at Ludlow first time out for her this season after several months break. She absolutely hacked up. Her trainers comments afterwards, (I'm not one to nornally get too carried away about these), were, "regarding the apparent improvement in form, that the mare appeared to benefit from being freshened up, following an 83 day break."

Of Course You Can runs off a similar break tomorrow, after getting beat at a shade of odds-on in a novice hurdle last time. I reckon she'll run well tomorrow and hopefully be on the premises at the finish.
 
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“In the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at 3.15pm we saddle Jasmine Bliss, who is in absolutely fantastic condition. I’m very happy with her and really looking froward to her running. She’s obviously got a lot of weight but she’s a big strong girl, who loves Newbury and I think is the one to beat in a tough race.” Harry Derham
 
Desijo said:
I like 2 in this Crazierthandaisy 11/1 general
Come on Nia 33/1 Paddy Power
These two are closely handicapped on their run at Warwick earlier in the season.
Crazierthandaisy is N Hendersons 2nd string but she is very consistent
Come on Nia flopped last time out at ffos las in heavy ground ,but the better going here should suit.
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Crazierthandaisy was a n/r and come on nia got a bit of place money for bookies paying 5 places👍🏻
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Of the market leaders Scarlet does makes appeal.

The one at a bigger price that catches the eye is Of Course You Can. There was a win at Ludlow first time out for her this season after several months break. She absolutely hacked up. Her trainers comments afterwards, (I'm not one to nornally get too carried away about these), were, "regarding the apparent improvement in form, that the mare appeared to benefit from being freshened up, following an 83 day break."

Of Course You Can runs off a similar break tomorrow, after getting beat at a shade of odds-on in a novice hurdle last time. I reckon she'll run well tomorrow and hopefully be on the premises at the finish.
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She travelled really well and then went out like a light, still finishing 7th. While I'm disappointed, I'll be keeping an eye on her next time, hopefully when dropped slightly in trip.
 


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