New Years Day 2018

M

Marb

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Worth a wee thread.

While not always backing TOP GAMBLE he's been a horse I've always respected.

He's got proper form in the book, he should be A1 for this.

He can win again now back in handicap-chase company. He'll act-fine on soft and should handle heavy, (won on heavy earlier on in his career).

He's my best bet by some way.

Currently 11/2. :)
 
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He's a good horse right enough but he faces a hard task giving Burtons Well a stone. I backed Venetia's at 13/2 a couple of days back ew and have topped up at 4s. His run behind Roman DS fto was very eye catching and I've been waiting for him to come out for a while.

I like Wholestone in the Relkeel. He's 3lbs better off with the mare for a 2l defeat at Wetherby and I think that, the shorter distance and his proved liking for Cheltenham will see him reverse. Old Guard makes the market in this - 2m5 on deep ground surely is not his bag.

I'm temped by Yanworth in the Dipper. He gets weight from WC and the ground should stop that horse getting away from him again (obv needs to jump better though.) If I can get 9/4 tomorrow I might double him with Wholestone.
 
I've been informed by a fellow form member on Private Message that my record on New Years Day is quite handsome, so your a brave man taking on Top Gamble, Euro. :)

Cheers for heads-up on Wholestone.
 
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Agree Wholestone should be capable of reversing form with the mare around here at 3lb better off. Earlier Chepstow form with Sam Spinner reads well given subsequent achievements by that one. Bet of the day for me


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I do see Burtons Well as the main danger, Euro. I'm pleased you mentioned him. R. Forecast?
 
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Is anyone* going to cheltenham tomorrow? Can’t decide if I want to or not...

*anyone from here obviously - I’m not expecting it to be empty [emoji13]

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I don't think it's as big an "If" as some might think.

Conscious of the fact he had fallen in his previous race they took a very cautious approach last time.

They overdid it and a mistake at a crucial point gave him a near impossible task.

I think you will find unless something goes tearing off he'll be ridden closer to the pace today so the last race's error is not repeated
 
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I’m a huge fan of Willoughby Court but can’t see him giving 5lb to Yanworth given a clear round by the latter. I’m with Tanlic here and think Yanworth was given an overly cautious ride last time and can expect him to be ridden closer today.
Today’s ground likely to be in his favour as he hacked up here on heavy at 2016 trials day


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viking said:
I’m a huge fan of Willoughby Court but can’t see him giving 5lb to Yanworth given a clear round by the latter. I’m with Tanlic here and think Yanworth was given an overly cautious ride last time and can expect him to be ridden closer today.
Today’s ground likely to be in his favour as he hacked up here on heavy at 2016 trials day


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Click to expand...

Unless the fences are taken out WC should win easy.
 
Yanworth will lose more than 5L at the fences. He can’t jump, and Willoughby Court is a confident selection.
 
I think the value bet is Sizing Tennessee although you will have to close your eyes at each fence he jumps. Should he put in a clear round? Can be a danger to all.
 
Fair play to Ballyhill backers. The horses total accumulated earnings, over four chase starts was just four grand going into today. What a day and time to pull out all the stops!
 
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I thought it was a very good ride from Geraghty: he gave Yanworth clear sight of the fences, keeping out of the way of everything and his jump at the last was decisive. He was dossing in front. Geraghty said afterwards, he, Yanworth, is still learning and didn't like that ground, so still progressing.
 
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