Newmarket-day two

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This is nowhere near as good as Chris's day one preview but this is about as good as it gets for me and I hope Chris and the other folk chip in as I can't see another thread for Newmarket tomorrow, or I can but I just can't access it!

Right, big jackpot tomorrow and as someone pointed out to me earlier when there’s a big jackpot often people play the jackpot and placepot together, hence creating a bigger fund, so call me crazy but I’m going to attempt it.

1:30: How many times have we seen a horse that’s run in a big race like the derby come down and get beat when hot favourite in a lesser race, I’m afraid my memory is putting me off the favourite. Enroller was 5th in a race at Ascot that they’re all talking about and he has improved significantly this year. The connections do well with the horses they have in training and his course win against the likes of Fiulin does his credentials no harm at all tomorrow. A forecast price of 6/1 is too big in my opinion.

2:00: Sayif was second in a nice little conditions race and his trainer trained his half brother Hunter Street, a group 3 winner over 5 furlongs. I have enormous respect for his trainer and I fancy he can take this.

2:35: Dona Alba’s win off a mark of 80 at Leicester in June is working out well in terms of the winners the race has produced, and John Dunlop knows the family well. A 7 pound rise seems plenty but the horse should still be looking at finishing in the first six, or at least I think she has a realistic chance of doing so. Suzi’s Decision is improving all the time and considering she didn’t have a great run of the race last time she done well to win off 9 stone 8 pounds. Rochefort was behind the well-touted Conduit at Epsom, and considering he was stepping up in class, in his first run of the season, then I think he is definitely going to improve for the run. All three will go in the pot's and I will look at the prices before picking out one, I really do think the winner will come from these three however.

3:10: A tricky race in which I couldn’t help thinking it was what horses hadn’t done rather than what they had done that was apparent, though I give Sagara the vote. He’s got form on soft and probably needed the run against the best in the game last time. He must come on for the run.

3:45 A plus point for Versaki is that he’s won a maiden on soft ground.. I think the breeding for Maxwell Hawke suggests he wants better ground. Ouqba’s 3rd to Art Connoisseur isn’t looking to bad now and he then went onto finish behind a horse called Finjaan who in tern finished 2nd in a listed race, so I think this one’s form is pretty solid. Kentish Dream is a half brother to a horse called Azabara and that horse won a couple of nice races on softish ground. Simon Callaghan is not doing to bad for his first season in training and I think Kentish Dream can chase the already proven Ouqba.

4:20 Another very tricky little race and nothing really I could see on the relative’s side to give me a inclination one might run well. Choose Your Moment ran Redford close and that one is a nice horse. As long as it doesn’t rain too much I give him the vote.

(horses in bold are going in my jackpot/placepot)
 
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Yes, a bloody gelding infact, sorry.

Suzi's Decision a non runner, why it takes me 3 hours to gather information to pour my heart out, for non-runners i'll never know. sod it, makes life easier.
 
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Good stuff Martin. Think Stoute has found a great opportunity for Papal Bull...should love the ground.
 
Was surprised to see that Papal Bull has never won on Soft ground; but then he's hardly run on it.

The Coronation Cup form has had plenty of boosts, and he ran well there despite (because of?) some Rakti-esque behaviour in the parade ring. Ryan Moore seems to love the challenge he presents too.
 
If may add my humble thoughts, I think Steele Tango is a really good value bet in the 2.35. He has done nothing but progress throughout the season and his only defeat came at the hands of General Elliott in a messy little event at Sandown, but looked like he would get the 10f trip last time when staying on well at Sandown.

Likes give in the ground, clearly progressive and think at 20/1 he is overpriced. Mind you, think Dr Faustus can bounce back after his nightmare at Royal Ascot where he was trapped wide for most of the way and was making steady progress inside the final furlong and will appreciate the cut in the ground being by Sadlers Wells.
 
Nice post Martin.

Another tricky day whichfurther reminds me why its July Cup Day that I usually attend. Most of those I fancy are well discussed in the papers but the dark one for me is Missioner in the 2.35 (33/1). A Johnston horse has done well except when upped in trip to 12f LTO. I liked the look of this one when at Goodwood last year and made it one to watch. Has handled G/S and although not ridden by Fairley or Fanning may not be the stable's worst chance. Relative betting with the 2 other stable entries could be informative.
 
Good stuff Martin. Think Stoute has found a great opportunity for Papal Bull...should love the ground.

I found it interesting that his worst 2 runs came on Good to soft, with the RP commenting on the ground both times. That's creating sufficient doubt about him in my mind to go with Sagara. (AP too short).
 
Hello Gentlemen,

Only bet on the one race yesterday the filly I have followed a lot this year and loyalty paid off on Nahoodh.



Today I have chosen 4 selections.

1:30 - I think getting on Bougereau is not certain at the price it is at, it ran great in The Derby when it was unexpected but maybe just a horse that loved the track whcih certain ones don't so I have went for Enroller currently at 9/2 and has raced with pre Derby hopefuls himsel.

2:00 - I have gone for Prolific here I reckon its the one to beat, although with the trainer of Sayif its going to be a tough race, but Prolific's last run he went down to the brilliant South Central and he can go on and win here. All impreesive 2 year olds though.

2.35 - Ran a great race in the Arc on similiar so I have opted for Sagara , I think Anna Pavola may suffer from a gruelling 3 weeks although the ground really is up her street.

3:45 - The going will be a massive plus for Versaki , you can forgive his Ascot run which was ran on a road, and its going to love it here and can come up trumps and show itself as Guineas material this time out hopfully.
 
Ryan Moore used the word 'tacky' to describe the ground. Never a word I like to hear in the context of the going.
 
Followed by a cracker from an oldie. I suppose if you're ever going to defy a big penalty that's the way you'll do it.

Papal Bull probably ran the straightest race of his life and never had a chance (even if he hadn't been squeezed for room).
 
Moore was pretty inept there...could see that happening from 2 furlongs out. He was more worried about Frankie than the winner.
 
Good to see change of tactics bring in a great result for Lucarno. Hope he continues a force to reckoned with in Gr. I´s this season, (incl. the Arc, I might add, even though this surely was a long way of required form, I know)
 
I agree
Moore lost the race and cost me the money ,
2out the writing was on the wll, he should have moved earlier.


Also Fortune rode a good race.
 
... and yes, great to see Balding in great form (again) BUT WHY DID HE NOT WIN THE GERMAN DERBY ??? - we were on at 50-1 !!!
 
I dont think Moore is to blame, just a great ride from Jimmy Fortune, as it was his horse who had the penalty and gave it he perfect race out in front and kicked on after being asked. In the end Lucano proves its St Leger with a great win here. Ryan may never knew how strong Lucano was with the penalty.
 
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