Newmarket Fri/Sat

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,123
Location
Leyland
Fillies Mile:
Rizeena 6/4
Ihtimaal 5/2
Sound Reflection 13/2
Wonderfully 9/1
Avenue Gabriel 12/1

Cheveley Park:
Sky Lantern 7/4
Elusive Kate 11/4
Integral 7/1
Just the Judge 7/1
Duntle 11/1
La Collina 12/1



I've highlighted these two fillies races because the market leaders of both had their first races in April. A major negative this time of year. Both contests have a history of shorties getting turned over. I'd be all in on Elusive Kate but her run last time out was disappointing.
 
I am all over Guest of Honour in the Joel Stakes, can't get the 9 as Paddys don't lay 2 bananas to a banana online but got 8. I made it 4. Beat Montiridge earlier in the season and Summer Mile form is quality. Can forget his American effort. Fav is too short and priced up on his Dubai impressive wins which are worthless here.

I backed Integral earlier in the week EW at 7/1 but not sure I fancy going in again now it's 2 places. Most of the field have probably had enough for the season and they pinpointed this race after she won on Eclipse day. I think they got carried away going for the Nassau so quickly and I suspect they reckon they have her spot on to throw her in back at G1 level after her arguably disappointing dead heat at Sandown last time out where Moore gave her a poor ride.
 
Euronymous said:
Fillies Mile:
Rizeena 6/4
Ihtimaal 5/2
Sound Reflection 13/2
Wonderfully 9/1
Avenue Gabriel 12/1

Cheveley Park:
Sky Lantern 7/4
Elusive Kate 11/4
Integral 7/1
Just the Judge 7/1
Duntle 11/1
La Collina 12/1



I've highlighted these two fillies races because the market leaders of both had their first races in April. A major negative this time of year. Both contests have a history of shorties getting turned over. I'd be all in on Elusive Kate but her run last time out was disappointing.
Click to expand...

Elusive Kate
stalls in the centre
if the place to be is in the insde, she should have a good chance making the lead, maybe Buick doing the initiative and the other following
but if the place is the far side her chances are less

also a negative she didnt run in the Matron, where she had the ground, the course and easy field and she didnt run

the Jacques Le Marois run is not a negative for me, it was a race not to suit on ground and the pacemakers and too good horses for her
 
hopefully 5 out of 5 for the trends

trends points for the Shadwell Fillies Mile

54 SOUND REFLECTION
45 AVENUE GABRIAL
43 IHTIMAL
37 BALLYBACKA QUEEN
37 UCHENNA
37 WONDERFULLY
35 RIZEENA
19 CHRISELLIAM

8.0 taken on Sound Reflection
 
sunybay said:
Elusive Kate
stalls in the centre
if the place to be is in the insde, she should have a good chance making the lead, maybe Buick doing the initiative and the other following
but if the place is the far side her chances are less

also a negative she didnt run in the Matron, where she had the ground, the course and easy field and she didnt run

the Jacques Le Marois run is not a negative for me, it was a race not to suit on ground and the pacemakers and too good horses for her
Click to expand...

Easy to forgive her JLM run, given the strong pace and the strength of the opposition, and with few of the others wanting to lead, I doubt she'll have too many problems getting to the front, either.
For mine, she barely gets a mile, so won't be setting a searching test, and - unless Hughsie decides to bite the bullet early - it's difficult to see Elusive Kate beaten.
 
I would think Sky Lantern a cert but for the fact that the Hannon yard is not firing at all and has not been firing at the usual level since before York .

The same applies to Montiridge tomorrow . On his Goodwood and Ascot runs his price vis a vis Soft falling Rain is absurd - he ought to be favourite- but he had a bad scope at Haydock and I would not back any hannon runner at present.
 
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She's no cert; even in top form, particularly if there's no great pace on.
Took her all day to get on top in the Guineas, was flattered by sitting out the back off a strong pace around Ascot, and didn't have the speed to cope with EK in a steadily run Falmouth.
It's no coincidence she ran over 10f afterwards, and this small field 8f is unlikely to play to her strengths. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Just The Judge turn around previous form with her - and little doubt SL will be deemed 'out of form' if it happens.
 
Moonlight Cloud, Olympic Glory, Intello, Declaration of War & Dawn Approach (forget Leitir Mor as Elusive Kate would have beaten him into 6th but for being eased down).


How many of those would one expect Sky Lantern to beat - conceding weight to some ?. Olympic Glory possibly.

Given the time of year and the change in allowance, she has a 5lb turn-around with Sky Lantern on their Falmouth run and given the form of Hannon's yard (32 consecutive losers) plus the way she swept aside Duntle in Deauville I'd have her heading the market.

11/4 is too big.
 
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Especially when she has evidently had a sex change ? Sky Lantern was murdered in the Falmouth and then by Buick again at Goodwood.

If she is 100% she will win tomorrow - there have been more excuses made for Just the Judge than just about any horse I can remember.
 
trends points

Royal Lodge

44 SOMEWHAT
36 WASHAAR
28 SIR JACK LAYDEN
27 BERKSHIRE
19 KINGFISHER

Cheveley Park

37 PRINCESS NOOR
29 DOROTHY B
28 COME TO HEEL
27 JOYEUSE
20 VORDA
20 KIYOSHI
19 RED LADY
10 ALUTIQ

Sun Chariot

66 INTEGRAL
57 LA COLLINA
57 CHIGUN
48 ELUSIVE KATE
48 DUNTLE
48 SKY LANTERN
48 JUST THE JUDGE
 
Ardross said:
Especially when she has evidently had a sex change ? Sky Lantern was murdered in the Falmouth and then by Buick again at Goodwood.

If she is 100% she will win tomorrow - there have been more excuses made for Just the Judge than just about any horse I can remember.
Click to expand...

Oh thanks
I thought sky lantern was a gelding when she run in the 1000g........


Talking seriously
Elusive kate has better form and if she is healthy I think she will confirm the form.
 
The French filly did nothing quickly in the Morny and already looks to need further, whereas Kiyoshi went from last to first in no time at all in the Albany, and will surely have too much speed for these.
 
In the Sun Chariot, I can't help thinking this morning's 2/1 & 11/4 best prices (with the guarantees) about the big two is just about buying money.
 
It may well look like that after the race but this time of the year is no time to be putting a fortune on fillies at such short prices.
 
reet hard said:
The French filly did nothing quickly in the Morny and already looks to need further, whereas Kiyoshi went from last to first in no time at all in the Albany, and will surely have too much speed for these.
Click to expand...

I know Kiyoshi is bred to stay 7f and further, but I'm with you, I think speed is her main asset, she left the Queen Mary winner for dead in the Moyglare when quickening up before being reeled back late on.

Interesting to see what the jocks do tactically. If this race develops more down the centre of the track than towards the rail, it might harm her chances a little given her tendency to hang right, but given Spencer should be more aware of this trait now, you'd hope he'd be ready for it now and ready to switch her to the rail if required.

I think 11/4 for the most talented filly in the race, that could progress for coming back to 6f is more than fair.
 
I have these figures for the 2 gr1s:

Dorothy B 123P
Joyeusse 124p
Kiyoshi 133$+
Princess Noor124+
Vorda 125

Kiyoshi clearly the most talented of the field, as she is held up , I imagine Murtagh will lead the fillies to go to the stands side and Kiyoshi is vulnerable to cross to the far side, Spencer is also qiute inept but have to say she is much bigger price than I expected
Dorothy B is the one improving fastly and the price is tempting
Vorda lacks the scope of some of the field and the french form not working very well, new jockey is a possitive but she is not a Natagora in my book.
Good race but likely not to have a big impact inn teh guineas market



Duntle 127
Elusive 131
Integr 119p
Just 123
Sky Latern 129

reports gallops talks Elusive doing well, so maybe bypassed the Matron to run in straight course
tendency to hang left can be solve by Buick going to lead at a steady pace on the standside, I think she is the best fillie in the race and 3/1 looks really good
Integral is too slow
Just the Judge is not good enough and needs a more test of stamina
Sky Latern can run well but long season and not as good as Gosden mare
 
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I'm with you guys on Kiyoshi, looks all speed. Spencer will hang on to her as long as he can today I reckon.

Surprised Berkshire is odds against. Looks a good bet at the prices.

I've put them in a double.
 
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