Newmarket July Meeting

R

reet hard

Senior Jockey
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Aug 4, 2011
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Danadana is improving, likely to improve again for the step up in trip, and has his ground for the first time this season.
Cracking bet at the current 4/1.
 
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Reet, since your opinion fully reflects my own you are clearly a good judge. Take out runs on G/S = fine record.

Another I am particularly keen on is Red Avenger. Run of his feet in the early stages over a mile at Ascot he sluiced up over 10f at Haydock beating Broughton who is also in good shape at present. Good record on going and this would appear to be his trip this year.

Like several on here I was pretty impressed with Astaire on his only run and have been waiting for reappearance. Feel Like Dancing was an expensive near miss for me at Ascot, I expect to recover losses today and is yet another fancied by a frequent poster. Finally to lesser stakes Fratellino is one I've been watching and given Giglio's endorsement, is worth a punt.

All in all an active betting day for me and, if I am right, a potentially good one for a number of forumites.
 
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The form of the Park Hill Stakes that Wild Coco signed off with a win in last September is proving very strong and does her credit, especially considering she was conceding a penalty to nearly all the other runners - the likes of Estimate & Ambivalent - which isn't always an easy thing to do at that time of year.

She won that race well in the sign of a typical Cecil improving mare and while there are doubts about the step back in trip and the absence, there are question marks over most of them and she won FTO last season.

At 11/2 she is worth a punt IMO.
 
To continue the theme of going against previous selections on the thread, Sir John Hawkins looks strong today.

Astaire does look the main danger and on literal reading, the line through Jallota suggests there is nothing between the two - and with Astaire on the face of it have slightly the most room for improvement.

But the 3rd of SJH in the Coventry behind a potentially top drawer horse doesn't fully do him justice as he was up with the pace throughout and eventually did well to see it out as he did.

AOB had 6 runners at Naas yesterday and they managed 5 wins and a 2nd between them. Considering they were sent off at 10/3, 11/4, 7/2, 5/2, 5/4 & 1/2 they were not exactly shoe-ins, with only the 5/4 & 1/2 going off fav.

SJH is AOB's only runner at HQ today and the continued presence of Moore over the trainer's son must be a plus.
 
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1.40
Looking back through the past winners, I seem to have a good record in this race, especially since they shortened it from 1m7f. Another interesting fact – a stat for those that like them – is that since it was shortened there hasn’t been a winner with an OR of less than 100. Havana Beat isn’t top on my figures but I did note that his form was gained in G2 company while the rest are lower than that, so it looks like he’ll be involved at the business end along with Feel Like Dancing and maybe Boite. Dare To Achieve was long odds on last time and won very easily but it was a weak race. Whether he has the 10lbs in his locker he’ll need to get to Feel Like Dancing is another matter but he might help create value elsewhere as the style of his win will have caught punters’ imagination. Gosden has won the last two runnings and I backed Feel Like Dancing ante-post for the Derby so I feel obliged to career headlong towards the cliff with him.

2.10
I planned not to have a bet in this unless it was a free one courtesy of Feel Like Dancing in the opener but if I was pleasantly surprised to see 7/1 on offer last night about Astaire whose time rating of 90 at York betters Sir John Hawkins’s 86 at Ascot. This morning's 8/1 doesn't tempt me to go in again because 2yo races don't instil double-strength confidence at the best of times. I was happy to take the price last night. To bleat about missing this morning's 8/1 is just churlish.

2.40
It will be a super training performance to get Wild Coco fit enough to win this first time up. She wasn’t far off her best first time up last season in the Lillie Langtry and didn’t need to get close to it next time in the Park Hill, and both races were against her own sex and she was entitled to win both. I suspect this race is to put an edge on her for a repeat in the former. The race then becomes wide open. Penalties will make things hard for Universal and Grandeur while I’m not convinced Ahzeemah is worth his OR. I could say the same thing about stablemate Cavalryman but his figure is 10lbs below what it was in his prime. Wigmore Hall tends to find one or two too good and Spencer won’t help him improve on that, given his riding style. That just leaves Danadana as the danger and his chances will not be compromised by the sacking of Fallon in favour of Moore. Marginal preference is for Cavalryman.

3.15
Le Deluge’s all-weather figure from early on is looking more questionable as he continues to run moderately on turf. There have been winners at 40/1, 25/1 and 20/1 in the last ten years, though, so punters can get it quite wrong. The other difficulty this year is that a number are coming up in distance form the Britannia while others are coming down from the King George V Handicap. I’ll probably take a chance that Space Ship isn’t inconvenienced by the shorter trip and hope for a strong pace to put the emphasis on stamina. The current 40/1 about Party Royal screams each-way value, though.
 
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Astaire's time at York makes him a bet for me today and in a poor and largely exposed field for the Princess of Wales's Stakes I quite like Grandeur despite his penalty. I saw him win well at Goodwood last year and he went on from that both here and abroad. He might still have a bit of improvement in him.
 
Good to get a winner on the board but I want to know what f&cking monkey is in charge of the C4 pictures??

Close-up shots all the way home and once they were past the furlong pole no perspective on how the race was panning out.

Not good enough.
 
I'm inclined to view Hughes' ride aboard Dare To Achieve as dubious.
My suspicious musings are not helped by Paddy Power "price-boosting" the 9/4 out to 3/1 fifteen minutes before the Off.
 
icebreaker said:
I'm inclined to view Hughes' ride aboard Dare To Achieve as dubious.
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I don't know about 'dubious' but the hose pulled pretty hard - giving me hope for mine - and got close enough when eventually getting down to work before being eased off when beaten.

As I said beforehand:
Dare To Achieve was long odds on last time and won very easily but it was a weak race. Whether he has the 10lbs in his locker he’ll need to get to Feel Like Dancing is another matter but he might help create value elsewhere as the style of his win will have caught punters’ imagination.
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I think he might beat FLD another day as he progresses but today was a big task compared with last time.
 
There is no meeting on the flat that gets me hungry for the jumps like this one. It all seems so flimsy and false. It's also hyped up as being a proper Festival even though there isn't actually much top draw action.
 
Euronymous said:
There is no meeting on the flat that gets me hungry for the jumps like this one. It all seems so flimsy and false. It's also hyped up as being a proper Festival even though there isn't actually much top draw action.
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Oh hello. Because the Open at Cheltenham and the Winter Festival / Hennessy meeting at Newbury and the William Hill Festival / King George Meeting) aren't jam packed with mud-hopping well-handicapped cheaters, one-time quite good veterans and never-will-be-that-much-cop novices.
 
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uncle goober said:
Oh hello. Because the Open at Cheltenham and the Winter Festival / Hennessy meeting at Newbury and the William Hill Festival / King George Meeting) aren't jam packed with mud-hopping well-handicapped cheaters, one-time quite good veterans and never-will-be-that-much-cop novices.
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The likes of Sprinter Sacre, Al Ferof and Simonsig all won Novice events at one or more of those meetings. Not many top draw 2yos run at the July meeting. And it's main event is oftentimes won by jumped up handicappers.
 
Ardross said:
Dare to Achieve was too free and paid for it in the final furlong .
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There's no denying the horse was keen, but, Hughes was herculean in trying to yank its head off during the first five/six furlongs. It would be an exaggeration to say he almost strangled it, but close enough.

It has been said on this thread that Dare To Achieve had simply run out of steam in the closing stages, but how do we know that for certain? That is just an assumption. What we do know from the evidence before us is that Hughes stopped riding in the last half-furlong. Don't the rules demand that a jock should ride out for a place at least?

Then, to cap it all, Powers send out a text from their 51465 number in the fifteen mins before the Off inviting me to bet the horse at 3/1 when on the course and with all other retail books the price is shortening from 9/4 to a returned SP of 2/1.

I'm not normally given to pocket-talk complaining, but this race left a sour taste with me.
 
Euronymous said:
It's also hyped up as being a proper Festival even though there isn't actually much top draw action.
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Depends on how you define top draw [sic] action.

I didn't think there was too much wrong with yesterday's action and today's includes a G1 and a hundred-grand handicap despite being arguably the quietest of the three days.
 
2.10
I was quite impressed with Rizeena at Ascot and she put up a very fast time there, a repeat of which would be good enough. Bye Bye Birdie’s defeat of Heart Focus next time doesn’t do anything for me.

2.40
I suspect the pros will be wiring into the evens about Sky Lantern. She's by far the most likely winner. I was on Purr Along at long odds at Ascot and I’m still intrigued that they’re opting to take on Sky Lantern again. I've backed her without the favourite. Elusive Katie and Giofra both have to find something to get back to their best form so they’re up against it just as much.

3.15
This might be the hottest 3yo sprint handicap of the season, since we’re now approaching the middle of the summer and most of the form is becoming established. I’m focusing on those likeliest to hit or exceed the norm and leaving the draw to chance. Ninjago is top rated on its Listed race form at Ascot in May where solid marker Hasopop was comfortably beaten, along with Zanetto who went on to overturn the form when Ninjago went off evens favourite also in Listed company at Newbury. I’m inclined to think Ninjago bounced that day and he was up against far better opposition in the Jersey next time. Secretinthepark’s form has been regularly franked since May. He too may have bounced next time and I’m looking for a big run now that he’s had just shy of two moths off in which to freshen up. Moviesta beat all bar the big plot Body And Soul at York and still looks on a steep curve. These strike me as three strong contenders against the field.

5.35
I’m leaving this to Lord Ofthe Shadows and Henry The Aviator. Hughes found himself with nowhere to go the last twice on the former. I’ve rated him as dead-heating for first in the penultimate race and for second last time, both lines suggesting he’s still on the up and therefore the one to beat. Henry The Aviator was beaten at odds-on last time but that wouldn’t be unusual for a Johnston horse prior to a festival race and his curve may be the steeper but he’s got a few pounds to find before taking into account further progress from the top-rated. I’m tempted to say it looks a solid forecast bet.
 
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Rizeena looked good at Royal Ascot but I thought Lucky Kristale ran well in the Albany, w/o the fav and at 7/4 in a 3 way match bet against One Chance & Fire Blaze will do for me.
 
Steve T said:
I thought Lucky Kristale ran well in the Albany, w/o the fav and at 7/4 in a 3 way match bet against One Chance & Fire Blaze will do for me.
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Wow Wow !
Super call. :thumbsup:
(Why didn't I risk a small win stake on top of the Place Only?).
 
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