Next Prime Minister

[Warbler]

Surely with Ed Miliband at even money and taking up 50% of the over round this is a vulnerable book?

Two scenarios

1: Cameron wins, the country later starts to get pissed off with him and he hands over
2: Tories win but need UKIP to form a government

Take the second one first as I think it's the eaisest to dismiss. First past the post shafts UKIP. They'll struggle to get 20 seats. It's difficult to see how the Tories under cameron will turn to UKIP ahead of the Liberals. They can't turn to both though. I'm sure there would be a lot of Tory backbenchers who would prefer a ruinous alliance with Falange, but I really can't see how either Cameron or Osborne could work with him. Liam Fox at 100/1 suddenly lurks

The first scenario is more likely though, but all politicians become detached and aloof before long (and Cameron starts from a higher base than most). The pattern of recent elections has been for the governing to recognise they've got a dead duck and try and replace them before the electorate do it. Blair gave way to Brown. Thatcher was dragged out by the men in white coats, and gave way to Major (Major himself couldn't win, and no one fancied the poison chalice by then). Wilson gave way to Callaghan. I would think there's a fair chance that as Cameron's popularity dips (albeit it does require Labour to find a credible challenger) that the Tories will seek to replace him. Major and Brown were serving Chancellors and Callaghan had a spell in the job too. At 20/1 George Osborne looks value

Why did George Osborne change his name incidentally?

 

[clivex]

Neither scenario likely IMOIMO

People don't warm to Cameron much but he's no where near as divisive as you think. He's far too skilled for that.

i don't believe ukip will do anywhere near as well as many think. Just my hunch but in run up to election they will blunder badly.

Wilson was losing it and ageing badly and thatcher had been around too long.

 

[marbler]

The only real bet I can see at the moment in the general election betting is the Greens to do better than expected.
The Greens banded are currently 6/1 with Ladbrokes to gain 2-5 seats.

 

[Warbler]

There still has to be a 'next' Prime Minister though Clive, and for such time as Ed Miliband is even money and David Cameron is disqualified, the book looks vulnerable. YOu can start off by taking a view as to which party it comes from. Take out Miliband and you have the following

Cooper 16/1
Burnham 16/1 (highly unlikely)
Chuka 33/1

Boris 7/1 (unelectable outside the south east)
Teresa may 12/1 (too stupid)
Sir George Osborne Bnt 20/1
Phillip Hammond 25/1 (the John Major candidate - but much better)

 

[clivex]

I would be very surprised if the greens picked up more seats. Brighton is a very unique place

wheres Alan johnson?

i dont like boris but will acknowledge he has wide appeal. i think voters are a lot less obsessed with class than many like to think

i think teresa may is a good bet. i dont find her stupid at all

 

[marbler]

i think voters are a lot less obsessed with class than many like to think

Coming from someone who has the Labour party vote down to the 'celts' and 'public sector trade unionists', (which were very class orientated remarks), I think the above quote is a bit rich?

The class thing does not matter in your book....as long as it's the Tory establishment it's being aimed including Boris Johnson and not the Labour one, then?

I suggest your views are a lot more tea-party Islington than you might imagine!
The class thing, rightly or wrongly, does matter to voters, especially outside of London in places like Rochester.

 

[Warbler]

That would be the same Teresa May who didn't know that the expiry time is 23.59 and not 00.01 on an extradition order, or that if she gives someone delegated authority to waive through passport queues she can't then come to the House and say its his fault when he does. She might of course argue that forcing Brodie Clark to resign was a price worth paying (she was always going to have to settle with him, as it was a clear error on her part) but someone at the Home Office had to explain she didn't have a leg to stand on. If she was the savvy management consultant she claims to be, she should have known that. Anyway, she cost us about £500,000 I'd imagine paying compensation for constructive dismissal (undisclosed) but will probably reckon it's money well spent to save her skin as the settlement came about 9 months later and was buried on page 19, as opposed to page 1 where it was disclosed that people were just be waived through immigration at Heathrow. She's also prescided over the passport fiasco at Peterborough, alienated the police like no other Tory Home Secretary has done before her, and of course, failed to get remotely close to the Prime Ministers immigration promise. In fact he's had to take the unprecedented step of asking the Cabinet Secretary to referee her and Michael Gove. I think she's pretty daft, there's certainly better candidates than her, both Osborne and Hammond to think of two, and she ain't the greatest debater either. She lacks the wit of Cameron or Hague, and doesn't appear to have the depth of academic understanding of others either

 

[Warbler]

I suggest your views are a lot more tea-party Islington than you might imagine!

More Tea Party Illinois I'd say, albeit I'll spare him the right wing religious shite they come out with, never heard Clive go down that route yet

 

[clivex]

Coming from someone who has the Labour party vote down to the 'celts' and 'public sector trade unionists', (which were very class orientated remarks), I think the above quote is a bit rich?

The class thing does not matter in your book....as long as it's the Tory establishment it's being aimed including Boris Johnson and not the Labour one, then?

I suggest your views are a lot more tea-party Islington than you might imagine!
The class thing, rightly or wrongly, does matter to voters, especially outside of London in places like Rochester.

Total rubbsh

Point is that labour gives the impression that they are the only constituencies they are interested in. Under Red Ed anyway

No it doesnt matter. They have elected old etonians and boys from brixton.

 

[clivex]

I know what you mean about Teresa to an extent but i think she could have voter appeal. im not one to hang someone on each and every mistake. Otherwise no one would be running for leader

 

[Warbler]

Try and reverse engineer the process Clive

Q1: Which party will supply the next Prime Minister (Cameron doesn't count as he is the current and therefore can't be the next, just in case anyone new is looking in)

Actually the correct question has to be what will the outcome of the next election be? That's the start point, as anything other than a Labour win sees Miliband resigning and out the book taking 50% of the over round with him

 

[EC1]

Looking back at when a party presides over a particularly disastrous time in office...Labour in 79 & Labour last time [even though the crash would have also trashed a Tory government]..it appears to me that people once they get rid..keep rid for a decent amount of time on the back of it...on that footing i do not see Labour even sharing power.

So it has to be a Tory for me Warbler..well that's narrowed it a bit

 

[Warbler]

That's the conclusion I've come to EC

That being so, Boris is the shortest at 7/1 which would allow you to dutch a few at that price. In terms of finding the winner though, the next question you have to try and ask is what would cause them to change Cameron if you're taking the view that the Tories will change a leader (who will then become Prime Minister) before such time as Labour defeats one

 

[Warbler]

So the first point of change comes next year in May and is based on Cameron failing to win an overall majority and the Liberals failings to win enough seats to resort to BAU

The fly in this ointment is UKIP. Even the most optimistic projections place them on about 40 seats, and that's provided they can win the west country seats where they're considered to have a chance of some description. Most sensible forecasts give them about 12-15, which is broadly made up of about 11 conservative seats and 3 labour. In other words, what ever direct gains Labour make on the back of UKIP taking Tory seats, will likely be wiped out by Labour losing seats in Scotland to the SNP (albeit the alignment of the SNP and Labour doesn't look to be electorally unmanageable)

The chances of Cameron requiring UKIP to form a government are small I reckon, but if it happens, then you have to suspect given the bad blood between the pair, that Cameron and Falange couldn't make it work. Who of the current senior team in the Tory could? Falange is like the owner of an SME who suddenly finds himself in a corporation. Well the job he'd ask for is Foreign Secretary one assumes (he could, actually be worse than William Hague). I don't think Osborne, Hammond, or May could work with UKIP either. Cameron is probably sufficiently such a chamealeon to continue in office but he's going to look a bit of hypocrite trying to telll how much he's always admired his new buddy Nigel. He'd have to call a snap election again I think, unless some Euro-sceptic, Atlantasist from the Tory right emerges claiming they can form a government. Liam Fox is the most obvious candidate.

What of Boris? Well he'll be an MP again, but won't have ever served in government or run a ministry. He's pompous and bombastic enough to cuddle up with UKIP, but I'm struggling to believe that having been Mayor of London for as long as he has, he's going to really be in the 'out' camp. I don't know how Mayors will play out. In America (whom I think we tend to ape most) Mayors of major cities have a lousy record running for national office. In France, they can succeed though. Boris would certainly be a player, but one who you suspect will be a little bit further down the line, circa 2020ish rather than 2015.

So if the change in leadership doesn't happen in 2015, then the question is still what is going to cause the Tories to change one

 

[clivex]

I do not get the sense that cameron arouses enough extreme emotions for him to be ditched. They may not be wild about him but he is smart enough to survive. One possibility might be around a euro referendum but even then im not sure

(did anyone see the polls from across europe on the EU? Incredible hostility towards the struggling bloated enterprise and we are far from being the only ones disillusioned.)

What he may well do is simply hand the job over. Hes no workaholic and has had enough in his life to put family first. I can see that happening at some stage

 

[clivex]

So the first point of change comes next year in May and is based on Cameron failing to win an overall majority and the Liberals failings to win enough seats to resort to BAU

The fly in this ointment is UKIP. Even the most optimistic projections place them on about 40 seats, and that's provided they can win the west country seats where they're considered to have a chance of some description. Most sensible forecasts give them about 12-15, which is broadly made up of about 11 conservative seats and 3 labour. In other words, what ever direct gains Labour make on the back of UKIP taking Tory seats, will likely be wiped out by Labour losing seats in Scotland to the SNP (albeit the alignment of the SNP and Labour doesn't look to be electorally unmanageable)

The chances of Cameron requiring UKIP to form a government are small I reckon, but if it happens, then you have to suspect given the bad blood between the pair, that Cameron and Falange couldn't make it work. Who of the current senior team in the Tory could? Falange is like the owner of an SME who suddenly finds himself in a corporation. Well the job he'd ask for is Foreign Secretary one assumes (he could, actually be worse than William Hague). I don't think Osborne, Hammond, or May could work with UKIP either. Cameron is probably sufficiently such a chamealeon to continue in office but he's going to look a bit of hypocrite trying to telll how much he's always admired his new buddy Nigel. He'd have to call a snap election again I think, unless some Euro-sceptic, Atlantasist from the Tory right emerges claiming they can form a government. Liam Fox is the most obvious candidate.

What of Boris? Well he'll be an MP again, but won't have ever served in government or run a ministry. He's pompous and bombastic enough to cuddle up with UKIP, but I'm struggling to believe that having been Mayor of London for as long as he has, he's going to really be in the 'out' camp. I don't know how Mayors will play out. In America (whom I think we tend to ape most) Mayors of major cities have a lousy record running for national office. In France, they can succeed though. Boris would certainly be a player, but one who you suspect will be a little bit further down the line, circa 2020ish rather than 2015.

So if the change in leadership doesn't happen in 2015, then the question is still what is going to cause the Tories to change one

Firstly most owners of SMEs are a huge cut above corporate drones. Believe me. ive met plenty. Some tosser half way up BT who's never made a decision in his life compared to someone whos built up a few mil turnover business? no comparison

a lot of jumping ahead there. do people really think they will get 40 seats? I cant see it at all. I think it will be low single figures

 

[marbler]

The only real bet I can see at the moment in the general election betting is the Greens to do better than expected.
The Greens banded are currently 6/1 with Ladbrokes to gain 2-5 seats.

5/1 now, who says I don't have influence eh?

 

[Warbler]

What he may well do is simply hand the job over. Hes no workaholic and has had enough in his life to put family first. I can see that happening at some stage

Well if that's what you think will happen, then the stage is set fair for a continuity Cameron candidate, and Gideon is it not? At 20/1 he'd be the obvious choice to step up from the Treasury and become the Brown to the 'heir to Blair'

The right will field a candidate in the shape of Fox (or similar provided he still has his reputation by then)
The Boris party will field their candidate
Osborne will be the continuity Cameron candidate
and Tersea May will probably stand with no natural constituency
There's usually a sort of unity candidate involved too, (which they might need if they've had another round of blood letting over Europe) and Hammond looks better set than any to take that role, but I suspect if he takes the view he can't win, then he won't do it
Michael Gove? well he's unelectable and it's difficult to do it from the whips office (Francis Urquhart did) and John Major served some time there, but you usually need to be prepping from one of the offices of state if stepping straight up to the PM's job. You can become a party leader from a shadow ministry or public services portfolio, but I can't think who the last prime minister was who went from a second division ministry straight into the job without having been leader of an opposition

I think there are many worse 20/1 shots in the sports books than Ozzy

 

[clivex]

A lot can also depend o how popular they are as people within their own party. Public image counts for only so much.

Blair was well liked. Brown was hated. No doubt about that.

David Milliband was seen as very arrogant by many in Labour and was not well liked. A not often given reason why he lost to his brother.

Osbourne is personally very well liked across the house by all accounts. Might surprise some that but public image is often misleading

 

[Warbler]

If he's greased enoug palms too (and he's certainly had access to them) then he should also be able to get the backing of big financiers ahead of any of the others

 

[Warbler]

5/1 now, who says I don't have influence eh?

Caroline Lucas hardly has a big majority (in fact its small) I'd have thought there's a better chance they get wiped out

Had a mildly amusing conversation with Paddy Power though who hadn't heard of George Osborne but 20/1 is now in the long range ante post portfolio, better than some of these daft bets on horses for March of which about 25% won't ever get to post.

There's only going to be two successors to Cameron in the medium term, Osborne and Boris. I can't see where a credible Labourite is coming from in the immediate future, so 20/1 about a horse that is probably a 25%-33% chance doesn't look too bad

 

[SlimChance]

There are two things wrong with this thread.

Firstly you assume that EVS on Ed Miliband is too short without any basis. It may well be wrong but not by any more than 10%. Go check Betfair and tell be that this statement is wrong.

Given this is a high overround market Ed's price being wrong by 10% is not enough to assume that you are getting any major edge on others as a consequence. Also this could be a trenches market and might not settle for 5 years so any reasoning or angle you have for backing someone in this market now can surely be extracted from other markets that will settle next year.

To summatise. You are looking at the wrong market.

 

[SlimChance]

Had a mildly amusing conversation with Paddy Power though who hadn't heard of George Osborne but 20/1 is now in the long range ante post portfolio, better than some of these daft bets on horses for March of which about 25% won't ever get to post.

You couldn't be more wrong. Can you show me the data that says 25% of horses don't get to Chektenham please? It's a bit rich you calling Cheltenham ante post "long range" when you are betting on a market that is open ended. March is less than four months away and most front end horses are arbs on Betfair for a reason. You're trying to be clever claiming this market is a shrewd investment when in fact it probably just fits in with your personal interests. Never mix up betting for profit with your hobbies.

 

[marbler]

A shame The Green Party have been excluded from the T.V debates. Apparantly a recent poll by Peter Kellner indicated a big shift from Lib Dem voters to The Green's. We shall see.

 

[Warbler]

There are two things wrong with this thread.

Firstly you assume that EVS on Ed Miliband is too short without any basis. It may well be wrong but not by any more than 10%. Go check Betfair and tell be that this statement is wrong.

Given this is a high overround market Ed's price being wrong by 10% is not enough to assume that you are getting any major edge on others as a consequence. Also this could be a trenches market and might not settle for 5 years so any reasoning or angle you have for backing someone in this market now can surely be extracted from other markets that will settle next year.

To summatise. You are looking at the wrong market.

Not at all, if Miliband loses (and he will) that's a judgement call. Then he'll resign and he's out the running, the market then corrects with the next Labour leader (whoever that is) taking over. It's high over round because they've flung all sorts of names into the book (some pretty stupid ones as well). Realistically only 2 or 3 credible winners

Backing Osborne is really something you want to settle long term anyway. His chances increase the longer the market runs into the medium term. The next electoral cycle. If it settles quickly, something has gone wrong, and that means a UKIP surge with someone having to come from the shadows to patch up a coalition