Northumberland Plate 2013

H

High Rate

At the Start
Joined
Mar 7, 2013
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337
The Pitmans Derby looks as open race this year, very open indeed.

Tominator looks the one to me. I'm not a million miles from the track and there's been some rain today, (not sure if it's actually hit the track though so don't hold me to that), which Jonjo is quoted as saying he could do with. He's got top weight but that is because he's won it before and ran a cracker at Chester last time.

Crackentorp looks a bit of e/w value having come second last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him run well, even though he'll have to put a string of bad performances since this race last year behind him. He's run some big races in his life when not fancied, so he can do it if on a going day. 40/1 a decent little e/w bet. Tominator can win it though.
 
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With you on Tominator and you'd like to think that Jonjo has an idea where he's at with a recent line through Well Sharp.

The jockey a great booking too imo.
 
Now reported to be good to soft, soft in places .Henry Ponsonby looking more than a bit of an idiot - pulls Tiger Cliff out before 48 hours on account of fast ground and their sub gets balloted out .

I cannot imagine Sir Henry would have pulled out so early.
 
I reckon Tominator will have to put up by far a career best to get close tomorrow. I can't fancy it at all.
 
11 of the last 15 winners have been aged 4 or 6 including 9 of the last 11.
13-15 winners carried less than 9-0.
15-15 winners had at least won a race.
13-15 winners had placed in the first five last time out.
15-15 winners had run in class 3 or better last time out.


In the last 15 years when the going has been good, good to soft or soft the winner has been drawn in the following stalls; 14,4,6,7,5,1,6,2.

Mubaraza is the only horse that qualifies from the inside seven stalls. He hasn't won on ground with give but he is by Dalakhani so he should handle it. He has a DI of 1.35

Brockwell and Moidore drawn in 10 and 11 will also carry support. Both will handle the ground and have DIs of 0.64 and 0.76 respectively.
 
I’m going to back three against the field here: Ile De Re, Blue Bajan and Crackentorp. Ile De Re gets to run off the same mark as when winning last year but has the additional help of a smart claimer. Any give in the ground won’t inconvenience him, nor should it inconvenience Blue Bajan who has been running better than the bare form this season and may well have had this as the target all along. Crackentorp was beaten half a length last year and gets to run off 5lbs lower. Other prospects include Brockwell, Mubaraza and Moidore.
 
I'm going for Mashaari, Oriental Fox and Noble Alan. Interestingly enough the next 3 on my list were Ile De Re, Blue Bajan and Crackentorp.
 
Very taking performance under top weight and Jonjo seems to have improved it, which I didn't expect. Great shout you two. Glad I didn't put you off it!
 
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