Northumberland Plate 2018

Marb

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A little preview I did so may as well post it here to kick off the thread.

As well as being one of the richest handicaps in the modern day world, The Northumberland Plate holds a special place in the hearts of racing enthusiasts especially in the Northeast. The staying contest was first held in the 1833 and soon became known as the Pitmen’s Derby, as it established itself as an important race in the lives of local miners.

My grandfather Tommy Haskin, a pitmen miner who lived in an old mining village in the area of Gosforth, sadly wasn’t born soon enough to witness the first ever winner, Tomboy in 1833, and unfortunately for him, passed away too soon to witness double winning Northumberland Plate winner, Tominator, in 2011 and 2013. I reckon he would have backed both!

The 2018 renewal will be only the third running on the all-weather Tapeta surface.

At this early stage, some three weeks before off time with around a hundred horses entered, the showcase handicap has attracted some notable entries, which includes the Tony Bloom owned, 2017 Ceserewitch winner and anti-post favourite, Withhold.

Last year’s Plate victor, Higher Power, bids for back-to-back victories, whilst The Derby winning Godolphin team will look to go one better this time around with Natural Scenery, who finished a solid second to the aforementioned Higher Power last year.

One lesser known horse that may have a bright future is the Seamus Durack trained Cayirli, currently quoted at 33/1 in the anti-post betting.

He was a consistent three year old in France, that never finished out of the places in five starts, before leaving J-C Rouget’s yard for England.

In his first season here, he finished second in The Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot, where he ran the race of his life, trying to make all, only to get collared near the finish.

He was subsequently off the track for 537 days, but reappeared in 2018 to win at Kempton on the all weather, at huge odds of 50/1, where he beat a good yardstick in Curbyourenthusiasm.

After this excellent comeback he ran disappointingly in The Chester Cup on his second start, but maybe that was the bounce factor.

He should be forgiven for that one poor run. He is an interesting outsider at this juncture.
 
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One lesser known horse that may have a bright future is the Seamus Durack trained Cayirli, currently quoted at 33/1 in the anti-post betting.

He was a consistent three year old in France, that never finished out of the places in five starts, before leaving J-C Rouget’s yard for England.

In his first season here, he finished second in The Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot, where he ran the race of his life, trying to make all, only to get collared near the finish.

He was subsequently off the track for 537 days, but reappeared in 2018 to win at Kempton on the all weather, at huge odds of 50/1, where he beat a good yardstick in Curbyourenthusiasm.

After this excellent comeback he ran disappointingly in The Chester Cup on his second start, but maybe that was the bounce factor.

He should be forgiven for that one poor run. He is an interesting outsider at this juncture.
Cayirli is entered in The Ascot Stakes next Tuesday. He apparently wants soft ground on turf. I'm hoping he runs, as he needs a prep before The Plate.
 
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See what's entered/withdrawn tomorrow. I will be going along on Saturday. I will be looking to back two horses in The Plate, one win one each way, (Cayirli each way if it runs).
 
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Cayirli runs on joint bottom weight at number 20 on the list of runners. I fancy him to out-run his odds, (40/1 Ladbrokes/Corals). It's an open race, I'd be delighted with the potential place returns though. I'd have preferred that he had a recent prep run in a lesser race, (he has had entries, but kept being withdrawn at declaration stages). An each way chance nevertheless. He has a good record on all weather surfaces.
 
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A good card I think...the first four races look very good betting heats. Volatile can win the opener to get me off to a flyer on track!
 
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472 views but just 6 replies! Without contributions from posters the over talkative amongst us just give up!
 
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I'm half cockney half Geordie actually in terms of time spent in both places, but yeah we will see about Withhold.
 
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In all seriousness, Tony Bloom badly wants a MC contender. Both Withhold and Penhill are 10lb light at the moment and need to get there quite quickly.
 
People have had other things on their minds, marble. World Cup/England/Whoever's-playing-England :lol:, so I wouldn't be too concerned about replies. At least people are reading the thread!

I only did the race today hence no reply.

Good luck with yours. Can't see it being involved myself. It;s too high class a race for it.

Archie's words about the Withhold situation are interesting, though. I have noted in my own piece that the Ebor or Melbourne Cup might be on the agenda but that tomorrow might just be the first step in the prep. I'm not sure what the dates are for qualifying for Oz.
 
True True, DO. :)

I've been a few times to the track on this day and landed the Plate winner a few times. Cayirli is just a sporting selection- nothing else - but a first four finish would like a good priced winner in it's own right.

I've stronger odds-chances in the first three races..see how I go.
 
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Copied from my preview:

I have to back Natural Scenery and, to be honest, if she were trained by Charlie Appleby I’d be all over her like the proverbial but SBS’s runners didn’t do too well as Ascot last week and that leads me to be more cautious. I reckon the mare has been trained for this all year and Hanagan catches the eye as a jockey booking but I just have too many doubts about the trainer’s form.

Officially best in is Lagostovegas (5lbs) following her Ascot win for which she was raised 10lbs. A slowly-run marathon on fast ground might be quite a different test from this Tapeta surface and I’m not sure the Ascot form is as strong as the official handicapper believes. If he’s right she’d be about 122 in the table. Clever Cookie has been on my radar for this for some time. He’s run in a couple of races for which I’ve done ratings this season and it’s always been on my mind that this has been the plan. He shouldn’t beat Natural Scenery on last year’s form, though. The +p runners and sleepers should present the biggest dangers. Of the former, Withhold was extremely impressive in the Cesarewitch on his second run for Charlton but I wonder if he is being prepared for the Ebor or maybe the Melbourne Cup. He’ll need to go up the ratings probably for the former and certainly for the latter but a win at York would solve the Australian issue. Amazing Red also impressed last time and holds a Goodwood Cup (G1) entry. That suggests he’s regarded as at least a 110 horse. I’ve rated Sir Chauvelin as equalling his previous best last time but my gut tells me the form is better than that, in which case he is on a curve and has the potential to run a big race. The sleepers, apart from Natural Scenery and Clever Cookie, are Soldier In Action and Curbyourenthusiasm. Soldier In Action got a strange ride behind Amazing Red last time but has suggested more than once this season that the old ability is still there. Curbyourenthusiasm has a similar profile and has been on the receiving end of some highly ineffective tactics but might have won the Queen’s Prize but for a typical show-off Spencer ride. He’s 9lbs lower than when only 8/1 for the 2016 Goodwood Cup and later gave Watersmeet 6lbs and a beating off 105. He’d have a serious chance on that form.
 
So, what will the winner get for that? 7lb? 10lb?

Maybe the Lonsdale Cup is a better target than the Ebor although Charlton is talking of not running him again in the summer.
 
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I think the handicapper will be in a quandary with this one.

They finished strung out like staying chasers, which usually only happens with either very strong form or very soft ground. I tend to leave AW racing alone so I don't know if there is a tendency for Newcastle to produce exaggerated distances. The racecourse people were saying beforehand that it would be riding slow.

The chances are the handicapper will work on the basis that the other placed horses aren't improvers but solid markers who were trying to translate their form to Tapeta but the distances will lead him to impose higher rises. I reckon he'll rate Prince Of Arran an average winner and raise him 5lbs. He'll then rate Withhold value for five lengths and add 5lbs for that.

So I reckon we're looking at 10lbs but it's pure speculation at the moment. When you consider the runner-up in the Hunt Cup only went up 1lb while the winner went up 8lbs (which actually makes sense for a comfortable near-3L margin) he might just put Prince Of Arran up 1lb too, which would probably mean 6lbs for Withhold. I have noticed, though, that when they're strung out in turf races [Flat] he tends to raise them more.

Either way, we'll know on Tuesday.
 
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