Northumberland Plate

V

Venusian

At the Start
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May 2, 2003
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This is one of "those" races where, decade after decade, I never seem to get within miles of finding the winner, a bit like the Cambridgeshire for me.

I took the 12/1 on Far From Old at J.Corals this evening, that appears to me to be good "value".

He'll be shorter tomorrow. I'm sure they wouldn't be sending him all the way to Newcastle to run over a new trip unless they were pretty confident he'd improve for it.
 
IT is tough and I'm still working on it. Have taken some of the Betfair 50's for Bollin Derek which imo is overpriced.
 
I've just about 'done' the race but await the form book instalment to help me get a handle on the most recent form. Bollin Derek is very much on my radar, though.
 
I used to be the Saturday Handicap Queen a couple of years ago, making most of my profits on those, but I seem to have lost the knack a bit just lately :rolleyes:

Anyway, these interest me, in no particular order, and I'll prob do only FCTS and a Tri or two:

Carte Diamond: The class horse in the race for my money, and will win a big one this season. Whether this is it I'm not sure - he has a lot of weight and a poor draw - but he's an OK e/w price at 11/1

Far From Old - over from France, tackling 2m for the first time - not to be underestimated imo

Highland Legacy - will like the ground; but he has Spencer up, alsways such a lottery in a big field - will he get thru?/!

Bukit Tinggi - ground suits, and the drop back to 2m, just hope Ascot didn't take too much out

Double Banded - highly progressive and consistent, can;t see him out of the first 4

Of the rest, Desert Sun would have interested me a lot on better ground;
and Bollin Eric is on my list for York where he runs brilliantly; I'm not convinced he'll be fully wound up for this
 
I done my work and go with first impressions, Bollin Derek e/w. Most of these have some question to answer, the ground, recent exertions, trip, foreign jockey(!)etc. Bollin Derek also has a question, has he recoverd from injury?

He has had a seasonal warm up over an inadequate distance and is trained by Easterby, who I give a deal of respect. Go back to his last race last year on G/S over 14f in a decent race which he won by 5 lengths easing. The following is a direct copy of the RP report on that race.

RP
"This looked a fair handicap, but it proved very one-sided indeed and they came home well strung out behind the heavily-backed BOLLIN DEREK, who was leaving this season's previous two runs well behind under these more suitable conditions and scored ingreat style under a positive ride from David Allan, who has ridden him to all of his wins.
Well placed from the start, Bollin Derek turned for home on the inside disputing the lead and was kicked on starting up the straight. From the moment he was committed he was firmly in charge, and he came further and further clear to win eased down a shade. He has always looked the type to make a better four-year-old, and although the handicapper is sure to raise him significantly he might not have finished winning yet as he is open to more improvement when upped in trip again. Ease in the ground is considered vital to him, however."

Given that he has won on heavy and soft one would imagine that without injury he would be one of the favourites for this race were it not for his injury last year.At better than 40 on Betfair I have had a fair go at this one to win 5 figures, Could come last but some of the best value I've seen for a long while.
 
Originally posted by Colin Phillips@Jun 28 2008, 09:25 AM
I have just received a text message telling me that Highland Legacy will win, can't think who that came from!
Click to expand...
I wonder Collin; :)

As well as strong words for Highland Legacy today, I can pass on Redford (3.55) is expected to win, having had an easy from a bad draw at Ascot.

Mezzanisi, was not right last time but is all systems go in the 6.50 at Lingfield tonight. A Bell Patent is on the cards.
 
Fair play to those that have put the work into trying to spot the winner, but ATR are trying to hype up a nothing race for me.
 
A nothing race? Isn't it the richest handicap in Europe over 2m? Worth as much if not more than today's Group 1 at the Curragh.
 
It could be worth 1 million and it still would do nothing for me, particular as The Curragh card is on the same day. Just my own preference, I am sure it's a race to savour for others.
 
It's a strange race.

Far From Old worries me. Hammond doesn't mess about in these big handicaps but I can't get a proper handle on his form and I'm never comfortable betting on gut instinct.

My top rated is Mudawin but he's ridiculously weak in the market. He's well enough handicapped these days to be top rated at this stage for the Ebor and if they can get him down a few more pounds I can see him going very close at York in six or seven weeks.

Highland Legacy and Double Banded have good profiles but I just think they still have too much improvement to find to win a race as hot as this.

Bukit Tinggi improved over 2½ miles last time but they slowed for a while in that race and the overall time was moderate. It could be he'll reproduce it at this trip but he could just as easily bounce.

The rest are much of a muchness with the exception of Desert Sea. I was on this one at 33/1 when it won last autumn so maybe I'm a wee bit biased. His recent win represented a fair bit of improvement again but the give in the ground might be a problem. Having said that, he wasn't beaten far (less than 3L) in soft in the Brown Jack at Ascot or at Sandown (1m6f g-s) before that, so I'm tempted into chancing him to win at 14/1. It represents a break in recent policy for me to bet with Sporting Odds when they're longest so I'm hoping they're banking on soft groud beating the horse. I'm not sure why Fergus Sweeney isn't aboard but Alan Munro doesn't strike me as a lesser pilot.

I wonder if today might not be the day for Bollin Derek. I suspect a win today might scupper its chances in the Ebor, the trip of which might suit it better.
 
Hope you are wrong DO. I have a decision to make. I only picked out two last night (part from a couple of savers)-Bollin Derek and Geojmali. Had an equal amount on each (e/w). Stuck a quarter of that amount on Geojimali at just over 20's as the first part of a double. Do I follow my original intention and wack the tol winnings on Bollin Derek or hold some back.


No question, told my self that was what I'd do so I will. Get them doggies Bollin!
 
Alan Munro used to ride quite a bit for David Arbo in the past, and he's been doing so again in the the last few weeks. I expect the Wards have some input there too. I think Desert Sea could overcome his draw on better ground, but I really fear do it's going to be too soft for him to show his best.

In the end I've had some e/w on Double Banded
Didn't dare back Carte Diamond - I want him to win too much :luv:
 
...and FWIW, I've had a few shekels each way on Whispering Death, a horse I've followed since his days as a 3yo with Haggas.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Jun 28 2008, 02:12 PM
Bollin Eric is standing at stud, HS!! :P
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:rolleyes: You know what I'm like with names!
By the time I'd noticed it the edit facility had gone - I was going to start a book on whether you, Arkers or Colin would be the first ...... :P
 
6th. Bugger . Even place would have been decent 4 figures.

Working on him some way out but ran on at the end. May be next time.
 
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing+Jun 28 2008, 11:49 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (chrisbeekracing @ Jun 28 2008, 11:49 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Colin Phillips@Jun 28 2008, 09:25 AM
I have just received a text message telling me that Highland Legacy will win, can't think who that came from!
Click to expand...
I wonder Collin; :)

As well as strong words for Highland Legacy today, I can pass on Redford (3.55) is expected to win, having had an easy from a bad draw at Ascot.

Mezzanisi, was not right last time but is all systems go in the 6.50 at Lingfield tonight. A Bell Patent is on the cards. [/b][/quote]
2/3 aint bad as Meatloaf once said.

7/4 & 7/4 taken.

Bloody Spencer on Highland Legacy, I know he got injured but does he have a magnet to a rail, and how to get a horse in trouble, for me I actually believe he is worse than the McKeown brothers. :(
 
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing+Jun 28 2008, 07:02 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (chrisbeekracing @ Jun 28 2008, 07:02 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing@Jun 28 2008, 11:49 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-Colin Phillips
Click to expand...
@Jun 28 2008, 09:25 AM
I have just received a text message telling me that Highland Legacy will win, can't think who that came from!
Click to expand...

I wonder Collin; :)

As well as strong words for Highland Legacy today, I can pass on Redford (3.55) is expected to win, having had an easy from a bad draw at Ascot.

Mezzanisi, was not right last time but is all systems go in the 6.50 at Lingfield tonight. A Bell Patent is on the cards.
Click to expand...
2/3 aint bad as Meatloaf once said.

7/4 & 7/4 taken.

Bloody Spencer on Highland Legacy, I know he got injured but does he have a magnet to a rail, and how to get a horse in trouble, for me I actually believe he is worse than the McKeown brothers. :( [/b][/quote]
Firstly Chris, fair call on the other two, but if you think for a second that Highland Legacy should have been in the first six in the big one, you need to take off the rose coloured glasses; he was the first of the big fancies beaten and is just not good enough to mix it at this level. To all intents and purposes, he's happier bullying inferior rivals.
 
I don't know Rory, he was running on going up a gap on the rail when he got put over the rail and went wrong hence why I questioned Spencer always going to the rail. As had he stayed where he was he wouldn't have got the horse injured. No one knows if he would have won or not, we wern't riding him.
 
Was the horse alright afterwards?

I just missed seeing the head-on, did Jamie go for a gap that wasn't there?...........I thought that's what I heard Chaparse say.
 
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