The November Handicap
It’s only 2 days until the big feature and we bring you our full views on the race.
This years November Handicap is one of the more stronger renewals in recent years and as always the ground looks like it is going to be rather testing. This should ensure a good stamina test and will suit those types who have the ability to stay further or who have stayed further.
Presvis (Lay) carries top weight for an emphatic win at Newbury, however he is 14lb higher at the weighs and those that finished near to him on that occasion have all disappointed since. The only winners to come out of that Newbury race were Tazeez (unsuited by the slow pace) and Night Crescendo (trip too short, pace too slow, made good late headway). Therefore it must be questioned whether that level of form is acceptable and that was the race at Newbury just run to suit him. Either way 14lb is bound to tell its own story. Looking at Presvis closer he also has only ran with cut in the ground once, running his worse race to date at Thirsk, and when you look at his half sister Zeena (never ran well with cut) or his half brother Pepe Galvez (also never ran well in soft) you start to wonder if this ground will be against him. His mother Forest Fire (SWE) was also a four time winner on firm ground who again showed very little on soft. So here we have it the 5/1 hot favourite, has not performed on the ground, is from a family of horses who haven’t gone on the ground, has never tried the trip, won a race where on the whole the form has not worked out and finally he is 14lb higher in a stronger race. For me he has to rate a win and place lay, granted he will be around 5/4 – 11/8 a place given his price of 5/1.
Young Mick got his just deserves for a tough campaign last time grounding out a win in a tricky four runner affair at Leicester, he stayed on well for good handling on that occasion and looked in fine form. We know he stays further and handles conditions, so there must be solid claims in there for him. He was unlucky at Ascot on more than one occasion this season and remains similarly weighted. Whilst he is always granted to give a good showing he is perhaps one of those horses you couldn’t go in heavily on, so he looks more the saver solution than the selection.
Carte Diamond should be more suited to this trip than the trip of his last run and on his penultimate start he shaped well, however he is probably best at around 1m 6f, and may find a few of these have a bit too much toe for him. He has also been better proven on a sounder surface.
Magicalmysterytour is one that looks to have been lined up at the race and his run at Ascot was pleasing when you look between the lines. He was trapped out deep throughout and was probably a little too keen given the slow running of the race and found himself too close too early. He petered out late on but the ground was far from soft enough and he wasn’t beaten far on the face of it. He had reportedly been showing all the right signals on the gallops prior to that run and was supported as if a big run was expected. I raised the question that if he won that race he could end up higher rated than 110 meaning he would be unable to get in this race (heritage handicaps are 0-110 races) so I feel this race has technically always been the accurate aim. Off his mark of 100 (dropped 1) he looks handicapped to play a big hand and his pilot Eddie Ahern has an 11% strike rate for the Musson yard, with +£16.00 to level one pound stakes. What’s more on 4yo’s and upwards he boasts a 20% strike rate and +£25 one pound level stakes profit. Given this horse stays well, loves the ground, will get the pace he needs, has a good high draw (8 of the last ten winners drawn 10 or higher), and is handicapped to go close he has to come under serious consideration given the easy manner of his Newmarket win where the vibes were he would certainly improve for the run.
Big Robert is one I expect to run okay at long odds, at the start of the season he was rated 107 yet managed to run a big 6th behind Royal And Regal and Tempelstern at Newbury, before running another fine race behind Spanish Moon at Ascot on ground plenty quick enough. Eye-catching two starts ago at Great Leigh’s he was a fine 2nd to Red Gala (beat 4.5L, 2L behind him at Newbury earlier in season confirms run no fluke) and he suggested he was coming back to form, unsuited by a slow pace he took a long time to get going and was doing his best work late on. Connections despite knowing he is a 1m 4f horse with a strong pace stepped him up to 2m at Newmarket and having travelled keenly and spritely throughout he weakened inside the final 2f. This trip should suit him and the give in the ground should bring his added stamina into play, a maiden winner on soft ground I feel a mark of 99 could be quite fair and given he is priced around 100/1 I certainly wouldn’t want to leave him unbacked.
Ajaan handles most surfaces and is capable on his day but he seems to have lost his way since a promising summer and despite pleasing work prior to the Cesareswitch connections opted not to run on the ground. He is capable off 98 but recent home work doesn’t get you buzzing and I think he saves his best for options closer to home. This trip is also the shortest he would want.
Group Captain is 3lb lower than his last run at Ascot and he actually kept on well on that occasion. Slipping to a fair mark (won this in 2006 off 99) he could be interesting given he has the cut in the ground he needs and has Richard Hughes on top who has always got on well with him. Rated 110 this time last year things may have dropped into place now and whilst current connections are going through a quiet spell there are worse 40/1 shots in the race.
Menwaal has been paying his way in Ireland and wasn’t disgraced in heritage company two starts ago. His win last time in the October Handicap at Naas was a good performance but I think this is a fair stronger race and he was all out to score by just over a length. Jamie Spencer is an eye-catching jockey booking but off 96 he will find things tougher against some leading handicappers and he is best watched in my opinion.
Celtic Spirit hasn’t been seen since a very poor display at Newmarket (presumably something wrong, beaten 100L and eased right down) but was previously an impressive winner off 89 at Kempton. He is one of those horses that if you knew was well and back to the form of his Kempton win you could give a place claim to but given he has been off with what was likely an injury he is best watched in preparation for a decent all weather campaign.
Tastahil has been talked up for many leading handicaps this season and especially when there is cut in the ground over this trip. He rarely runs a bad race and is sure to give his running but no wins in two years get you questioning his resolution. However 4L behind Muhannak and 2L behind Magicalmysterytour are not bad efforts at all and stall 11 is also a nice sit for him. 16/1 just about represents value and he should give his running but he looks more of a bridesmaid than a bride.
Tropical Strait was most impressive beating Woolfall Treasure at Newbury and then again ran well at the course when 2nd in the Newburgh Handicap to Caulfield Cup winner All The Good. His last run was most disappointing but a combination of trip and over testing ground looked to take its toll. Off 95 he has no margin for error and whilst this trip should suit better it remains to be seen if he wants the ground this testing, at 25/1 he is about the right price, but I feel there are others with better claims in the line up.
Hits Only Vic has had a fruitful run of late and didn’t run too badly at Newmarket last time but a mark of 95 will almost certainly make his life very difficult. He handles the cut but this trip is definitely on the short side for him.
Dunaskin is one who is capable on occasions but has shown little in the way of form needed for a race of this calibre of late. His 2nd at Southwell is definitely not up to this standard and whilst a good run behind Tranquil Tiger at the start of the year wouldn’t see him a million miles off, he does look as if he was flattered on that occasion. He looks here just to round up the numbers.
Acropolis seems to be running well and shaped well behind Young Mick at Leicester but he looks a bit flattered on that form. Unable to take advantage of similar marks in much easier handicaps it has to be raised whether he has the heart for a race of this nature. Likely to run his usual sound race on conditions that suit but more likely to struggle against some useful handicappers who aren’t far off group class.
Wicked Daze was all the rage for the Ebor before it was abandoned and placed at Newbury and he ran like a drain. No better at Newmarket in the Cesareswitch he was subsequently sold to Ian Williams for 35,000 Gns. Hard to fancy on any recent form and this ground is far from ideal, trip also definitely on the short side.
Cold Quest was strongly fancied in an easier task than this at Bath on his final start for John Gosden but seemed to shirk the issue late on. Bought for 32,000 Gns at the Horses In Training Sale he has potential to improve but this looks tough for a horse whose best trip is 10f and is certainly not bred for testing conditions.
Ladies Best disappointed on many occasions for Luca Cumani and a change may work for him. However he is not really progressing this season and having been used as a lead horse for Bankable and Presvis early in the year the season may have taken its toll. 32,000 Gns seemed alot to pay for him and this trip and ground are definitely unknowns. Hard to fancy.
Night Crescendo is 2lb higher for his Ascot win where he had a whole host of these behind him and he is probably not badly treated on the face of that win. A tough sort he loves to get his toe in and is a good hardy battler. He is still reported in good order and he should be suited by the strong pace with cut in the ground. Very hard not too see him being in mix but likely he may just find a couple too good, who were undoubtedly unlucky in running behind him at Ascot.
Mull Of Dubai loves this ground and wouldn’t mind more rain and is suited by this trip. However this class is a little beyond him and has been unable to mix it the last twice in similar company. Hard to fancy here.
On soft ground The Betchworth kid definitely is likeable but he is woefully one paced and needs further. He won nicely over 1m 6f and 1m 7f and was again done for speed last time over 2m. The drop to 1m 4f will not really be ideal but he is likely to be staying on well at the death. Outside claims of running on into a place but surely lacks the pace to land this feature with some classy middle distance types in the line up.
Greek Envoy is 6lb lower than his last win but he doesn’t seem to be in the same vein of form this season. Whilst he would be hard to right off if returning to form, recent starts suggest he is just best watched for the time being.
First Avenue has been called some names in his time but this good workhorse has only once been out the frame in his career and is a model of consistency. Not disgraced in a good 3yo handicap this season at Epsom he showed a good attitude to collect last time in similar conditions at Warwick. The extra furlong should suit but for me 9lb for that win was rather harsh. No easy chance now taking on the best handicappers at this trip and seasoned older rivals at that, he does worry me that he has a very high head carriage. I would expect him to give his showing once more but I feel there are plenty of others with better winning claims and a place chance may be his best hope.
Electrolyser is the lightest raced in the field and his win last time was very hard thought. Up 7lb he definitely needs to improve but is open to improvement and is one that is at least progressive and handles conditions. I was impressed with his 2nd to a good horse in Midships at Newmarket in October and he was crying out for further on that occasion. The ground is perfect for him and he looks the sort you could see running a big race. He needs to improve to score but its not out of the realms of possibility and he is one I would want to have on my side in the race.
Summary
A competitive and decent renewal in which I think we’ll see a good finish, as previously said I couldn’t have Presvis and I just feel he represents no value. I’m keen to oppose him.
For me the main two in the race are the lightly raced Electrolyser and the improving Magicalmysterytour. These two horses look in my opinion ahead of the handicapper as well as open to further improvement. The ground suits and so does the trip. These are the main bets in the race for me. I also side with Tastahil whose 2nd to Breeders Cup winner Muhannak is eye-opening and he faired well behind the consistent Night Crescendo, he adds spice to the mix.
For value selections I must add in three at big odds, Young Mick is seldom far away and is overpriced at 20/1 whilst at larger odds Group Captain, is handicapped to return to form and has the right man on board. Finally Big Robert is no outsider when you study his form closely and shouldn't be the 150 on the exchanges as I write.
For forecast and tri-cast options, we have the following;
Forecast
Magicalmysterytour, Electrolyser, Tastahil, Night Crescendo, Young Mick, Big Robert & Group Captain.
Tricast
Magicalmysterytour, Electrolyser, Tastahil, Night Crescendo, Young Mick, Big Robert, Group Captain and The Betchworth Kid.
Advised 20p C.F.C, and 10p C.T.C
Summary Of Bets
3pts Win & Place MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR
2pts Win & Place Electrolyser
1pt Win & Place Tastahil
0.5pts Win & Place Young Mick, Big Robert & Group Captain
LAY to win 10pts PRESVIS & Lay to win 5pts Place PRESVIS
Good Luck
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