NR's - Is this the best we can do?

Y

yorick

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I backed a horse in the 7.35 Doncaster.

9 runners when I backed it last night. Ew for 3 places. No worries. Yeah, right.

Now we are down to 7 runners, the 3 places has gone and we're hit with a rule 4. This is just a way of racing life now. Since the 4 day decs were introduced, all we see are horses being taken out on the day of the race because trainers have had to make a decision about declaring their runners well in advance of race day and trainers are being asked, in effect, to be weather forecasters days in advance. whhn they get to the day? Nr's galore.

Today at Donny there are 10 nr's and 9 of them state 'going' as the reason.

For the ordinary punter, bets are totally ruined by this state of affairs and the British Horseracing Association are content just to sit by and allow to happen.

So here we are: fields blighted by non-runners, small (tiny) fields, pathetic prize money. How many more things need to be in a dreadful state before racing gets the overhaul it needs?

How is it that we can see Eire and France delivering regular good sized fields, prize money that puts ours to shame?

Are the racing authorities so arrogant that they can't look to the Irish and French models and learn something from them?

I have been bleating on about this for so long on various forums but the average racing fan doesn't seem at all bothered.

Is it just me?
 
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All races on Betfair Exchange they don't reduce the place terms if any horses get withdrawn

Donnie 9.05pm is an example...2 non runners only 7 going to post EW 3 places

if you back early you can as you say be hit witha rule 4.........simple solution is don't bet early:D
 
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I know what you mean but I am working and busy during the day and so like to make sure I can get it done in good time. Besides, once a horse comes out, the race and the staking will need adjusting and further study: impossible for me to be restudying form the next day at work.
 
Lots of good reasons to use Betfair but they closed my account when I emptied it once and are refusing to reopen. Maybe linked to the fact I seem to have p****d off Paddy Power somehow as they won’t offer me BOG and have excluded me from all promotions


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Just make sure that you back win and place separately on Betfair rather than use the E/W market, they don't pay on the third there if the field is reduced.
 
yorick said:
I know what you mean but I am working and busy during the day and so like to make sure I can get it done in good time. Besides, once a horse comes out, the race and the staking will need adjusting and further study: impossible for me to be restudying form the next day at work.
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Can I suggest you bet less and only back horses on your day off when you have the time to monitor what's happening.

My best runs have come when I have plenty time on my hands to watch videos, watch the market moves and being able to adjust bets if anything unexpected happens.
 
Bet on AW races only - going is consistent and largely predictable = fewer withdrawals.
2 AW meeetings yesterday = 6N/R . 3Flat = 38.
 
What people fail to appreciate is that many. many hundreds of thousands of punters are those that bet in multiples for modest stakes.

If you study a race the night before with, say, 9 runners, you may look for something that is a long price, with a mind that they may win but even if they don't, you can get a nice return on the place to hit the first three: that's part of the calculations. Then, the next day, you see that there are two nr's, the field is reduced to 7 runners, the places are for the first two only and all that calculating goes to pot. It is impossible to number the amount of races that cut up so that the 3 places are lost: carnage for all the studying and staking plan that you have.

I wonder, sometimes, if there is a secret incentive from the bookies to trainers to pull horses out and reduce field sizes.

Once again, when i raise the issue on forums, nobody gives a toss. Well. I maintain it is an issue. The betting public are being ill-served at best, cheated at worst.


Still. never mind. BAAAAAAAH!
 
yorick said:
What people fail to appreciate is that many. many hundreds of thousands of punters are those that bet in multiples for modest stakes.

If you study a race the night before with, say, 9 runners, you may look for something that is a long price, with a mind that they may win but even if they don't, you can get a nice return on the place to hit the first three: that's part of the calculations. Then, the next day, you see that there are two nr's, the field is reduced to 7 runners, the places are for the first two only and all that calculating goes to pot. It is impossible to number the amount of races that cut up so that the 3 places are lost: carnage for all the studying and staking plan that you have.

I wonder, sometimes, if there is a secret incentive from the bookies to trainers to pull horses out and reduce field sizes.

Once again, when i raise the issue on forums, nobody gives a toss. Well. I maintain it is an issue. The betting public are being ill-served at best, cheated at worst.


Still. never mind. BAAAAAAAH!
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I totally agree. The best way I avoid this is to bet on the day itself. The odds are shorter, but the risk of being done over by late withdrawals is greatly reduced.
 
There is too much racing which results in smaller fields.if there was bigger fields then it wouldnt matter so much.
Maybe the bookies sponsor the starting stall staff.8 runners and one plays up take it out.
 
Len Madeiros said:
I totally agree. The best way I avoid this is to bet on the day itself. The odds are shorter, but the risk of being done over by late withdrawals is greatly reduced.
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But why can't they use the same reduction factor Betfair apply- in line with the R4 deduction, if necessary?
 
I backed one horse for Friday last night: Ernesto in the 4 pm Carlisle. : 5 runners.

This morning I see this on the BHA website: three nr's.

4:00pm
Zinc White (IRE) reason: going

Fri 27 May 7:18am Reason: Going
Wynford (IRE)

Fri 27 May 7:16am Reason: Going
Call My Bluff (IRE)

So, now it is a 2 horse race.

10 nr's at Carlisle - all citing 'going' as the reason.

Once more, the farcical situation surrounding four-day decs continues. Will this carnage ever stop?

Pathetic.
 
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I must apologise for my tosh talk here. What I mean to write is not 4 day devs but 48 hour decs.

The 48 hr rule means that any horse running on Saturday, say, would have to be declared on the Thursday. It used to be that final decs for Sat would be made on the day before.

People will point out that even the old system would produce nr’s if the weather turned overnight. However, it’s obvious that declaring nearer the day would mean that if it chucked it down on a Thurs night, you could take your horse out in time to let punters know well in advance.
 
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I understand your frustration yorick, but on balance I much prefer the 48 hour decs, despite it not being perfect. Having the extra time to work through cards to see where the opportunities lie, to rate races, and to form study is much better than 24 hour decs.

You point out yourself that horses would get withdrawn anyway, and in all likelihood the 2 runner race today would have been a two runner race anyway if trainers don't think the ground is suitable.
 
With respect, mate, it’s not much use having that extra time to study and then see your choice as a nr. Not necessarily true about they would’ve been taken out even under the old system. If you declare your top of the ground horse on a Thursday lunchtime and then it lashes it down that night, there’s nothing you can do. If you didn’t have to declare til the day before, you could take your horse out before the final Dec.
 
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48 Hr decs also enable far eastern countries to bet on our racing, which should benefit all of us to some degree.
 
yorick said:
If you declare your top of the ground horse on a Thursday lunchtime and then it lashes it down that night, there’s nothing you can do. If you didn’t have to declare til the day before, you could take your horse out before the final Dec.
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If the rain is forecast the same outcome would happen anyway, and we knew the risk. The same would also happen if it lashed down the night before.

The issue of ground is generally the other way round, when it's too firm. That being the case connections usually decide on the day, unless they travelled up the evening before.

The issue here is more around the dubious withdrawals of horses at the bottom of the market, which leaves a suspicion of bookie influence. But even then they tend to be late on in the piece, and 48 or 24 hour decs don't usually make too much difference.
 
yorick said:
With respect, mate, it’s not much use having that extra time to study and then see your choice as a nr.
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As often as not, I'm grateful if my horse is taken out because of ground conditions. I'd rather get my money back than see the horse run and lose because of those conditions.
 
reet hard said:
48 Hr decs also enable far eastern countries to bet on our racing, which should benefit all of us to some degree.
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So these eastern countries can also get hit with hundreds of nr’s too lol.

I’m not so sure the financial benefits outweigh the harm done. I’m certainly betting less because of the situation. Prize money still remains ludicrously low, too.
 
Maruco said:
If the rain is forecast the same outcome would happen anyway, and we knew the risk. The same would also happen if it lashed down the night before.

The issue of ground is generally the other way round, when it's too firm. That being the case connections usually decide on the day, unless they travelled up the evening before.

The issue here is more around the dubious withdrawals of horses at the bottom of the market, which leaves a suspicion of bookie influence. But even then they tend to be late on in the piece, and 48 or 24 hour decs don't usually make too much difference.
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Yes, but if the trainer has to make a decision on ground conditions two days before the race it makes it really difficult. However, if the clerk of course calls the going as ‘ gd/gf in places on a Friday, the trainer can look to the f/cst for the next day (more chance of being accurate btw). If the f/cst is for blazing sunshine, the trainer can then predict the ground might be too firm for their horse.
Sure under the old system the ground could change overnight, resulting in nr’s, but that could be sudden storms, the unexpected.
Under the current regime nr’s are simply built in as acceptable. The punter is ridden over roughshod.

No, I don’t want my picks to run on unsuitable ground either. Having 24 decs can prevent and horses can be withdrawn without corrupting hours of dedicated form study.
 
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