P nicholls stable form

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Desijo

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Does anyone have any thoughts on the form of Paul Nicholls stable.
Only 1 winner from 25 runners over the last 3 days and a few beaten at very short odds.
He normally has a quiet spell in January after his string have been vaccinated, but must be of concern with Cheltenham only 4 weeks away.
 
Regent's Stroll beaten too this afternoon. Ground may have played a part possibly (and injury to one behind was just horrific to watch - think it was Dodger Lane?) as my Dark Horse, Alexei didn't enjoy it.
 
I always think the best measure of stable form isn't the strike rate, but whether horses are running to, above, or below market expectations.

Rubaud ran well against L'Eau Sud, Hitman and Bravemansgame ran about as well as I and the market expected them to - others?

I'd have to go and check.
 
They're usually quiet after their jabs and doesn't Nicholls bugger off to somewhere like Antigua in February and doesn't ask much of his first division horses at that time?

I wouldn't worry about it too much.

I did think Rubaud would be trying yesterday and it was. I didn't think BMG was and I don't think he was. I wasn't sure about Hitman but I think he was the trier but stamina is an issue for him at 3m.
 
I backed 2 of his yesterday and both ran poorly.
I looked at the stable form, thought about it and backed them anyway.
Fools and their money eh🤣
 
I did hear paddy powers Cobden bemoan the fact that they just don't have a big name star in the stable coming through

It still seems strange given his history, standing and purchasing power that PFN cannot get his hands on a horse capable of developing into a Grade 1 animal

I for one, hope he really does as racing is better when he's on top
 
granger said:
I did hear paddy powers Cobden bemoan the fact that they just don't have a big name star in the stable coming through

It still seems strange given his history, standing and purchasing power that PFN cannot get his hands on a horse capable of developing into a Grade 1 animal

I for one, hope he really does as racing is better when he's on top
Click to expand...
They have a couple of very expensive purchases who have not lived up to their price tags and expectations.
 
Desijo said:
Does anyone have any thoughts on the form of Paul Nicholls stable.
Only 1 winner from 25 runners over the last 3 days and a few beaten at very short odds.
He normally has a quiet spell in January after his string have been vaccinated, but must be of concern with Cheltenham only 4 weeks away.
Click to expand...

I look at percentage runners beaten squared to get a view of trainer performance, especially over different time spans to see they're in or out of form at the moment.
Here's the numbers for Paul Nicholls plus 3 of his key peers for comparison.

4-trainers-prb2-stats.jpg
 
Desijo said:
Does anyone have any thoughts on the form of Paul Nicholls stable.
Only 1 winner from 25 runners over the last 3 days and a few beaten at very short odds.
He normally has a quiet spell in January after his string have been vaccinated, but must be of concern with Cheltenham only 4 weeks away.
Click to expand...

This is the view of Paul Nicholls seasonality using data since the start of 2000, doesn't look like March is his best month that's for sure


Paul-Nicholls-Trainer-Seasonality.jpg
 
As for others, I have updated my trainer seasonality table and gave it a quick scan for who's good in Feb, I'm not familiar with L J Morgan but Feb seems to be his month.

Trainer Seasonality LJ Morgan.JPG

Plus he seems to be in form at the moment.

L J Morgan percentage runners beaten.JPG
 
Also entered at Sandown on Thursday.

Just A Rose
Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle, 12-1

She'll be entered and the plan is to run in the Jane Seymour Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Sandown on Thursday. She won impressively at Taunton on her debut for us and we'll learn a lot more this coming week.
 
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