Petit Robin

W

Warbler

At the Start
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
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8,493
Has anyone got a speed rating for this one:eek:

Or have I miscaluclated something. This looks like a grade 1 horse running in handicap company? With the name Henderson after it, you needn't be genius to work out where it's likely to be heading.

My only reservation is that I've recorded suspiciously fast times on the 17F chase course at Newbury previously, and am far from convinced by the race disatnce. However, its won rather well, and at face value looks to be on a par with something like Twist Magic on my figures:blink: Even if the distance is wrong, he's do the job by 12 and 13L's and so in all probability wasn't at full extension, so one might compensate a bit for the other anyway.

Thoughts? Or have I made one of those arithmetical errors that you only spot the next morning, when it leaps off the page at you.

Appears to have a quote of 20/1 for the Champion? urm..... and here's me thinking I can second guess Henderson
 
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Chase was on the inside 2m1F. Hurdle on outside 2m110y.

Chase started 16 strides behind hurdle start.
 
He heading for the Grand Annual you think Warbs? I know Henderson likes to win it with it being named after his father but can he keep this horse that well handicapped till then or just send him there off one more run?
 
Warbler said:
Has anyone got a speed rating for this one:eek:

Or have I miscaluclated something. This looks like a grade 1 horse running in handicap company?
Click to expand...

My view too. I've given him 83/100 literally with a provisional of 85/100. Worth taking serious note of when stepped up in company.
 
I daren't turn over my figures for fear of ridicule!!! but my gut reaction is that he still might be looking at the Grand Annual? I haven't checked his entries but at this very early stage he seems to be being prepared outside of a conventional CC route? He raced off 132 yesterday, last year Tramantino was the lowest off 130 and Andreas made the weights off 154.

By mixing my speed figures up (I tend to deal in the number of lengths a horse beats a class par by and then adjust respectieve weight to distance) I've got him having run to about 168.

Off a grade 1 par he's pretty well hit a level I've recorded consistantly for something like Twist Magic. He's still well behind Masterminded, but would be in the top half dozen of any Champion Chase if replicating this performance. I gave him figure of 99.79 which is a very worthy performance of a Champion Chase candidate normally.

There has to be a limit as to how much he can be raised. If you rate the race through the runner up (Its Crucial 122) who he beat by 13L's then he mat only be raised in the region of 6Ibs, for a mark of 138, which wouldn't be at all prohibitive to a winning the race.

Alternatively of course, Nicky my always try and make hay, and if he decides that he can't win a champion, he might always use Petit Robin to head the weights in the high 150's and get something like My Petra in off 136 or any other sneaky one he's got well handicapped for that matter.


Incidentally, Gareth Flynn, do you fancy plotting your way round the 17F chase course on google earth to try and establish how accurate the advertised race distance is. I've done it and have a figure, I'd be interested to get a second or third opinion and see if its signifcantly different?
 
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I just had a quick go. I'm not exactly familiar with the intricacies of Newbury's chase course (or any chase course, for that matter), but the RP and Timeform maps have the 2m1f start between the 2nd and 3rd fence in the home straight, whereas I make it needing to be between the 1st and 2nd. Where does it actually start?
 
Discounting the water jump, (you can see this as what looks like an open ditch, as there's no water in it!!!). I've got the start between the second and third. You can see what looks like a starters rostrum ,and a 'muster area' to the immediate south, with a path that leads them out on to the course. Clearly it's in its Summer configuration and the rails have been brought in I reckon, so I decided to plot out a map aiming at the inside of each fence and try and project this round on where I thought the rails would be.
 
Does the handicaper take into consideration the race distance ( which nobody knows ) and hence the fast time when allocating the new handicap ? Or just consider the winning distance and class ? Or in the case of Big Bucks, the estimated winning distance ?
 
In his column in the RP Weekender this week Mr Mordin suggests that under sized chasers like Petit Robin have a big advantage nowadays because of the current drive to make our fences safer and therefore easier to jump. PR hurdles his fences, a trait he wouldn`t have got away with a decade or so ago. Nick goes onto say big old fashioned chasing types like Air Force One would be more effective in Ireland where the safety drive isn`t so rampant. He basically contends that in the Hennessy he was the best horse in the race but that once Island Flyer picked up the gallop he was caught out. As a "proper chasing type" AF1 couldn`t jump as efficiently as most of his rivals at the increased speed they were travelling.

Personally I cn see his point with Petit Robin and he produced some stats with regard to the decreasing rate of fallers in British chases but he`s off beam with his comments on Air Force One. I never saw him outpaced in the race and he just got tired over that trip on the soft ground.
 
Looks like Petit Robin could take on Twist Magic at Kempton over Christmas. Interesting prospect.
 
I would love to goto Kempton and see Petit Robin but im not paying £40, Might go lingfield for a tenner lol
 
Oh bloody hell!!! I'd long forgotten about this thread and thrown my figure away now, I think I made quite a bit shorter and was broadly in that territory
 
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