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Four runnings are hardly basis enough on which to draw meaningful conclusions, are they? And those two winners just got lucky on the day.

Many Clouds got lucky because none of the other serious contenders ran their race. If TDN had stood up he'd probably have won by some way and we wouldn't be having this debate. We'd be having an altogether different one (see below). Neptune Collonges got lucky because SHB idled when he was out on his own. On another day he might not have been close enough or might have been on the wrong side of the verdict. And Synchronised might have stayed on his feet and won by miles. There's no way he wouldn't have stayed.

If people want to have a pop at someone or something they're missing a much more obvious target.

If TDN had won by a wide margin (as I strongly believe he would), the debate would be all about how he manged to get in 10lbs too light and the outcry would be for the return of penalties. That is much more the whim of the handicapper than the science that tells him that over the extreme test of the National the higher-weighted horses would otherwise be at a disadvantage that deserves redressing.

<blockquote data-quote="Desert Orchid" data-source="post: 2520055" data-attributes="member: 65242">Four runnings are hardly basis enough on which to draw meaningful conclusions, are they? And those two winners just got lucky on the day. Many Clouds got lucky because none of the other serious contenders ran their race. If TDN had stood up he&#039;d probably have won by some way and we wouldn&#039;t be having this debate. We&#039;d be having an altogether different one (see below). Neptune Collonges got lucky because SHB idled when he was out on his own. On another day he might not have been close enough or might have been on the wrong side of the verdict. And Synchronised might have stayed on his feet and won by miles. There&#039;s no way he wouldn&#039;t have stayed.If people want to have a pop at someone or something they&#039;re missing a much more obvious target.If TDN had won by a wide margin (as I strongly believe he would), the debate would be all about how he manged to get in 10lbs too light and the outcry would be for the return of penalties. That is much more the whim of the handicapper than the science that tells him that over the extreme test of the National the higher-weighted horses would otherwise be at a disadvantage that deserves redressing.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Desert Orchid, post: 2520055, member: 65242"] Four runnings are hardly basis enough on which to draw meaningful conclusions, are they? And those two winners just got lucky on the day. Many Clouds got lucky because none of the other serious contenders ran their race. If TDN had stood up he'd probably have won by some way and we wouldn't be having this debate. We'd be having an altogether different one (see below). Neptune Collonges got lucky because SHB idled when he was out on his own. On another day he might not have been close enough or might have been on the wrong side of the verdict. And Synchronised might have stayed on his feet and won by miles. There's no way he wouldn't have stayed. If people want to have a pop at someone or something they're missing a much more obvious target. If TDN had won by a wide margin (as I strongly believe he would), the debate would be all about how he manged to get in 10lbs too light and the outcry would be for the return of penalties. That is much more the whim of the handicapper than the science that tells him that over the extreme test of the National the higher-weighted horses would otherwise be at a disadvantage that deserves redressing. [/QUOTE]

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