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You'd lose because you are mistaken. The point sounds plausible on an intellectual level, but is incorrect when viewed statistically.

The top weights in question were Synchronised (5 runs), Imperial Commander (targeted - 1 run) and Lord Windermere (4 runs). Others include Tidal Bay (4 runs, possibly targeted given his programme that year), Don't Push It (4 runs, targeted), Madison Du Berlais (4 runs, prob targetted), Cloudy Lane (5 runs - targeted)

All below the average, but, with the exception of IC, in the bracket for number of runs required (3+) and most of them targeted specifically at the race.

[QUOTE="simmo, post: 2520066, member: 65084"] You'd lose because you are mistaken. The point sounds plausible on an intellectual level, but is incorrect when viewed statistically. The top weights in question were Synchronised (5 runs), Imperial Commander (targeted - 1 run) and Lord Windermere (4 runs). Others include Tidal Bay (4 runs, possibly targeted given his programme that year), Don't Push It (4 runs, targeted), Madison Du Berlais (4 runs, prob targetted), Cloudy Lane (5 runs - targeted) All below the average, but, with the exception of IC, in the bracket for number of runs required (3+) and most of them targeted specifically at the race. [/QUOTE]

Verification: 5 + 3 = ?