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Interestingly enough, and possibly a first for the internet, I'm coming round to the thinking that EC and Maruco might be right.


I was taken by EC's stats, but wasn't convinced by the arbitrary choice of 11st5 as the weight cut off - largely because the "stat" that was always bandied about prior to the change was that you couldn't win the National carrying 11st or more.


So I did a bit of research. The following is the percentage of wins achieved carrying 11st or more in a variety of long distance jumps races.


Scottish National 4m1f 16%

Midlands National 4m1f 18%

Eider Chase 4m 45%

Welsh National 3m5f 24%

Whitbread 3m5f 33%

Grand National Trial 3m4f 31%

Grand National pre-op 4m4f 16%

Grand National post-op 4m4f 50%


What do I take from that? It's harder to win carrying a large weight the further you go, either by distance or by heavy ground. (I'm putting the Eider down to the class of horses - the top weights there would be carrying 10st something in the GN).


And the weights adjustment has clearly had too great an effect on the results of the Grand National.


5 + 3 = ?
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