I've got to say, this is an excellent debate. It's all about opinions and the contribution and analysis has been first class whichever side of the debate you're on.
The point I was going to make about the X-country races was weight doesn't seem to make a normal difference to the result. The non handicap race earlier in season often gives similar results to the handicap which suggests weight carrying is hardly an issue.
Reet could be right when he says the reason is its run on a sharp course and it doesn't offer real jumping test, but I would have contended that it's equally to do with the fact that very few horses actually get home so it's likely to be the same handful of horses contesting the finish.
Contrary to Desert Orchid's earlier post, previously my view was that the handicapper could possibly be having less impact by altering the handicap at Aintree than he thinks he is, but simmo's excellent analysis has blown that completely out of the water. He's clearly had a profound impact to the extent he's handed a very unfair and undeserved advantage to those at the top of the handicap.
I think Reet is probably right, but not necessarily for the right reasons. I think the ability to adapt to all of the unique jumping test the x-country course presents is important, as is the ability to last home while maintaining a decent gallop. It takes a particular type of horse to excel just as it does in the National, and that's something Phil Smith or any other handicapper will never be able to account for, and therefore he shouldn't attempt to.
The big question this raises from Alan, Simmo, and DO's posts is whether there should be a complete review of the handicapping system. Clearly there is a bias but not in the way Phil Smith is trying to approach the National. There is a compelling correlation that needs looking at, and ironically even more so on the flat.
I suspect if further work was done to analyse the relationship between distances over jumps it may be even more pronounced. Clearly there are a whole host of reasons why horses don't cross the line together, but that is precisely what a handicap is supposed to do.
The killer question then is what changes would we make to correct what looks like an imbalance and to ensure parity?
