REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

Reply to thread

Message

Going back to the National

A possible theory why top weights appear to be disadvantaged. Many horses near the top may be targetted at the National..as showed by Simmo earlier...but only after they have given their best trying to win Graded events for a year or two previoulsy..basically when a horse is at its peak they keep away from the National..then as a later career move decide the horse isn't good enough to win those..although still has a high rating.

In the examples Simmo gave..Madison De Berlais...Imperial Commander..Tidal Bay...could fit that criterion...and i bet there are more like them.

How many times do we get a new kid on the block like the first 3 in the GC this year..who are then targetted at the National the season after..or same season...very few imo. Many Clouds is pretty unusual in that he breaks that trend...but i think many higher weighted GC horses have their best days behind them. I'll bet if horses that are potential GC winners didn't go that route and went the National route..then more higher weights would win..with no concession needed. Its clear that would never happen as you are clearly going to have a couple of go's at the GC with such a horse..but in using those years trying to win the GC you are losing those best years for that purpose. Hence you get to the National..with a big weight..and your best years behind you.

<blockquote data-quote="EC1" data-source="post: 2520116" data-attributes="member: 65360">Going back to the NationalA possible theory why top weights appear to be disadvantaged. Many horses near the top may be targetted at the National..as showed by Simmo earlier...but only after they have given their best trying to win Graded events for a year or two previoulsy..basically when a horse is at its peak they keep away from the National..then as a later career move decide the horse isn&#039;t good enough to win those..although still has a high rating.In the examples Simmo gave..Madison De Berlais...Imperial Commander..Tidal Bay...could fit that criterion...and i bet there are more like them.How many times do we get a new kid on the block like the first 3 in the GC this year..who are then targetted at the National the season after..or same season...very few imo. Many Clouds is pretty unusual in that he breaks that trend...but i think many higher weighted GC horses have their best days behind them. I&#039;ll bet if horses that are potential GC winners didn&#039;t go that route and went the National route..then more higher weights would win..with no concession needed. Its clear that would never happen as you are clearly going to have a couple of go&#039;s at the GC with such a horse..but in using those years trying to win the GC you are losing those best years for that purpose. Hence you get to the National..with a big weight..and your best years behind you.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="EC1, post: 2520116, member: 65360"] Going back to the National A possible theory why top weights appear to be disadvantaged. Many horses near the top may be targetted at the National..as showed by Simmo earlier...but only after they have given their best trying to win Graded events for a year or two previoulsy..basically when a horse is at its peak they keep away from the National..then as a later career move decide the horse isn't good enough to win those..although still has a high rating. In the examples Simmo gave..Madison De Berlais...Imperial Commander..Tidal Bay...could fit that criterion...and i bet there are more like them. How many times do we get a new kid on the block like the first 3 in the GC this year..who are then targetted at the National the season after..or same season...very few imo. Many Clouds is pretty unusual in that he breaks that trend...but i think many higher weighted GC horses have their best days behind them. I'll bet if horses that are potential GC winners didn't go that route and went the National route..then more higher weights would win..with no concession needed. Its clear that would never happen as you are clearly going to have a couple of go's at the GC with such a horse..but in using those years trying to win the GC you are losing those best years for that purpose. Hence you get to the National..with a big weight..and your best years behind you. [/QUOTE]

Verification: 5 + 3 = ?