Profit from Sellers & Claimers, hopefully

EC1

EC1

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not a talking horses thread as such, just wanting to see if a profit to level stakes can be shown from these races, I think it's possible.

18 August 6.30 Windsor
1pt win Jafaru @ 4.0
1pt win Pairumani Pat @ 7.2
 
I struggle to find the winners of Group races where (hopefully) they are all trying and of sound merit. I stay well clear of these type of race.
 
thats what I hoped someone would say Gal

there is a clear view amongst bettors that better class races are easier to predict...I don't believe that at all

check out G1 fav's over the last 10 years for a start..particularly short ones :eek:

pity I didn't start this thread Saturday mind you...would have had a 13/1 winner to start with

http://talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=13085

just about weighs up my luck when posting on forums :D

give it a chance Gal...I might surprise you over the coming weeks...either that or make mysen look a right mug :o
 
In fact

what could be fun/interesting would be somebody starting a similar thread entitled "Profit from Group Races"

plenty to go at over the next couple of months
 
I've seen a system on such races previously, that suggested you stick to the older horses. The rationale is clear. The races are for essentially poor or potentially unsound horses. Older horses however, are less likely to be claimed and can be entered on merit, or at the very least, their fitness can be taken more on trust. Anyone entering a younger horse might risk losing it, unless they were pretty confident that no one would want it because it would run so badly.

It set me wondering if there was a system that could be built around a recently dead owner with the excutors looking for a quick disposal and therefore lobbing a horse that might be better than a claimer into such a race
 
In my early days of gambling I did a study over a period of three months or so, assessing the results by various groupings (making a theoretical level stakes bet on every race run in the UK).

By class, I found that the worst results came in sellers/claimers and 3yo+ maidens. Best results came in 2yo maidens and 3yo+ Group races.

By distance 7f stood out from the crowd (other results generally much of a muchness). Easily explained.

Assessing my results since then, mid-season is best in both codes, although every few years (such as this year!), I forget and try my hand more forcefully in early flat season and get stuffed.
 
"It set me wondering if there was a system that could be built around a recently dead owner with the excutors looking for a quick disposal and therefore lobbing a horse that might be better than a claimer into such a race"

Warbs, I would have thought the paucity of runners wouldn't justify the work involved in keeping track of of owners' deaths.

From memory, the idea with claimers was to go for the older classier horses that were set to be claimed at a high enough level to prevent them being claimed, but because of their class enabled them to be competitive at the weight.

Dandy Nicholls has proved in the past to be adept at this method, I am glad to say.
 
It set me wondering if there was a system that could be built around a recently dead owner with the excutors looking for a quick disposal and therefore lobbing a horse that might be better than a claimer into such a race
Click to expand...

Bit maudlin isnt it?

But could there be a Stiff Watch section in the RP?

Perhaps they could give indiactors to future prospects too?
 
The owners are simply given as "exors for abc"

It's reasonably safe to assume that the original owner has thus died, and that the executors might not have much interest in racing and are just looking to dispose of the horse. It's not disimilar to a forecourt throwing a half decent car into an auction just to get shut of it, if its the make weight in a part exchange deal
 
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