Punchestown Thursday

A

Ardross

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 8, 2007
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AP back on Brave Inca I see . Could this be Fair Along's Grade One chance ?

I suspect Fiveforthree will win .
Notably AP rides Tatenen whilst the Nicholls subs stay at home ...
 
Forpaddytheplasterer 7/4 with Paddy Power, 4/5 with Ladbrokes, Tatenen 2/1 with PP, 4/1 with Lads, big difference of opinion.
 
Only that in spite of what happened at Cheltenham I believe Forpadydeplasterer will be one of those 2m 4f horses ala Watson Lake - he thrives at Cheltenham where the ground is much faster than it will be today whilst Tatenen (for all his decent French form on bottomless) appears best over here on a sounder surface.

That said I'm not sure who exactly will win which is a tad worrying.
 
I've a few bob each way on Inca today. Could well be his swansong, given he's had a lot of problems this year. He's that price becuase of his previous form over three miles (when he was injured) and his run the last day (new jock but same monkey!!). AP should be good for him today and he is in fantastic form. He will be ridden as if he gets the trip and he hasn't been stopping in the Hattons. The Friday 2m option was less attractive as he was not going to have a lead like the Irish champion hurdle.
 
Tend to agree that Fiveforthree is a good thing. I have doubts about Fair Along, i think his best days are behind him to be honest, Powerstation is a horse i will never back, think he is a bit of a monkey, best round Cheltenham, and he may save a bit for himself. Brave Inca is as gutsy as they come, and may well be the danger,but he may just come up short this time im afraid. Be nice to see him run well though. Best of Luck O.
 
I have my doubts about fivefourthree.

I think the combination of trip/ground may well go past his breaking point in terms of stamina. His OR can only be a couple of pounds higher than quite a few over this new trip for him.

At 5/4 there is almost an inbuilt assumption that he is likely to improve at the trip. At 20f (ish) trips he's won the Ballymore far less easily than at one point looked likely and was outstayed by both Tranquil Sea and Solwhit when looking a more likely winner in the latter stages of both races. I'm not saying it's conclusive but at skinny odds i'd want far more convincing that he wants the trip.
 
50/1 looks too big a price about Footy Facts in the stayers hurdle. He's a hard horse to catch right, but seems in good form of late. Has stacks to find with the likes of Fiveforthree and probably not good enough to win it, but 3 miles on heavy ground looks ideal and he might just sneak a place.
 
Waiting for Punchestown race I decided to lay Thomas Baines at 1-3 .Did the business he drifted out to 1.44 decided to take a guaranteed profit.Dog decides he wants to get out .I leave him out come back after a minute race goes off discover I have backed Thomas Baines twice instead of laying then backing .Race goes off-in a complete tizzy don't know what to do.Thomas Baines misses break and is 4/1 before I know it.
Immediately deposit lump into betfair and lay Powerstation for a place.
 
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