Results Research

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montyracing2

At the Start
Joined
Apr 17, 2005
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763
Location
Blackpool
Arising from a Nick Mordin article many years ago I have had quite a bit of success in the following way:

For national hunt handicap races analyse the form for horses where they were noted as 'stayed on', 'kept on' and/or 'ran on' in their last race and assume they may be better than their handicap mark suggests.

My season runs from October to March inclusive.

I sense something has changed because I seem to be analysing more form lines than in previous seasons. My suspicion is that race readers are using these three descriptions more so than in previous seasons.

Should anyone have the appropriate software and be willing to spend a short time running off the results, say over the past three seasons, I would very much appreciate the effort. Simply the number of horses gaining these three descriptions by month (Oct - Mar) for 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007.

This would indicate if race reading has changed to the detriment of my selection process (October and November were profitable, profits were lost in December).

Thanks in anticipation - MR2
 
Much as I would hate to think but that has crossed my mind.

The number of horses not setting off with enthusiasm yet finishing roughly the same distance behind the winner as at the start gives grounds for concern. But also, the number of horses being taken wide or meandering to find 'better ground' seems to be increasing.

On the other hand, being holiday time perhaps I'm just watching more racing and finding more fault.

Angry old MR2!
 
There were some very tart remarks on Betfair radio today about Declan Carroll's runner Namroud at Southwell, who started favourite in morning prices then drifted like the proverbial barge... was tucked in during the race and never put in to it [Danny Tudhope up as usual]. Hope the Stewards called him in; and you'd think this team had had enough warnings by now!
 
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