Rio De La Plata

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
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After what were for me inconclusive trials, I have been trying to weigh up the claims of the various candidates. I believe New Approach will take all the beating on good to soft, or softer. Firmer conditions should play to the strengths of Raven's Pass. However, I do worry he could become one of those horses who people make excuses for when he does not win (ie - Hawk Wing).

With Godolphin's new purchase, Il Warrd, a likely contender for France, and Frankie partnering Rio De La Plata in the 'Godolphin' trials, surely the possibility is increasing that RDLP will run at Newmarket?

Ignoring the Dewhurst (not to fit into my theory - but because anyone who saw him in the paddock at newmarket could see he had gone completely in his coat), he could easily enter what is becoming quite a muddy picture. Quicker ground would suit, and I believe he will come to the fore in a truly run race.

Thoughts?
 
Given some of the crazy prices that have been available about Rio 69-1 betfair, if you have taken that price that is good value. Given that God have said one runner would go to France, it may all depend on the ground conditions at Newmarket. Looking at the 10 day forcast ( not very reliable ) there does not appear to be much rain heading for Newmarket , so i would say there is a fair chance Rio may go for the English 2000G.
 
He`s been up and down like a yo-yo the last few weeks. I`ve not been able to resist some of the more fancy prices.
 
May not run, may not have his ground, may not have improved sufficiently to reverse with Raven's Pass or New Approach, if taking part he has Twice Over to beat also



You ain't got any clue what price horse should be, so how can you say you've took fancy prices or say 69-1 or whatever is crazy



Like i said before, Laddies etc must LOVE it
 
Euro

Using just RPR'sI have just run a simulation to obtain the prices of the four horses mentioned on this thread


It came out with a price of 249.0 for RDP



You seem to be the tool taking unpriced horses not me pal




Bye now
 
Says the guy using RPR`s for anything.

You`ve obviously decided i`m some sort of mug punter without knowing anything about my methods - the Ladbrokes comment illustrates this, i only use Betfair and only ever mention them when talking about odds.

RDLP obviously must improve to take a hand in the Guineas but based on his run in the National Stakes (a far more pertinent line of form than the Dewhurst where he was probably over the top and the ground was against him) he should be 20s tops and maybe 2/1 to get there. So anything ovr 40s is value imo.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Apr 21 2008, 10:20 PM
RDLP obviously must improve to take a hand in the Guineas but based on his run in the National Stakes (a far more pertinent line of form than the Dewhurst where he was probably over the top and the ground was against him) he should be 20s tops and maybe 2/1 to get there. So anything ovr 40s is value imo.
Click to expand...
Euro,

I'm in general agreement with you on this particular argument, but must point out that if he's a 20/1 chance (tops) and 2/1 to get there, then you'd need prices of 65 and more on Betfair to be approaching value. Sorry to be pedantic.
 
I`ve never known how to work out these cumulative odds thingies. Whenever Big mac goes on about some jockey/trainer having a 42/1 double i`m like how`s he worked that one out?
 
Getting back to the point, on fast ground he is certainly worth a second look but his form with Lizard Island looks decidedly weak now as does his Group 1 success.

Capable of grabbing a place at best in my opinion.
 
A 2 to 1 shot will get you 3quid back.

If you then put that on a 20/1 shot, you will get 3 * 21 = 63 pounds.

So if you believe that RDLP is 2/1 to show up and 20/1 to win if he shows up:

That means he is a 62/1 shot, as it is 62/1 the double you mention above.
 
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