Road to the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup

SteveM said:
If only to annoy EC1 I’ve backed Long Run today at 10/1 with Paddy Power.
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You missed the 12-1 with BetVictor. A blind man could see it was the wrong price. I feel sorry for anyone who cannot see Long Run is incredible value at anything over 5/1.
 
I won't be playing EC1 but at the time I thought BetVictors quote of 12/1 was double the price I would have expected. If he stays sound he will be the marker they have to beat.
 
SlimChance said:
You missed the 12-1 with BetVictor. A blind man could see it was the wrong price. I feel sorry for anyone who cannot see Long Run is incredible value at anything over 5/1.
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...damnation about missing the 12s, but 10s is so much the wrong price that I don't feel too bad. The only account I had with VC was one you had to pay money into before making a bet and I'd forget to draw on it, so stopped using them.
 
Euronymous said:
Sorry Steve but RPR's are just arse. LR has run nowhere near 180 at Cheltenham in any year and are we really meant to believe that The Giant Bolster is suddenly a 170+ beast.

Timeform have Sprinter Sacre on 174p. RPR have Synchronised on 175. I think we all know which one of these is a ballpark figure.
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There's a difference between TF and RPRs though which is different to the difference between them on the Flat. Whatever the figure is or should be it's clear that SDC has to improve considerably before becoming favourite to beat Long Run.

Also you must realise that LR didn't run up to the same mark this time re your comment on The Giant Bolster as he achieved when beating Denman and Kauto last time. But it should also be pretty evident that The Giant Bolster has run to a career best in this Gold Cup.
 
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Sir DES Champs and Hunt Ball are interesting but both have to improve mor than a bit before thinking Gold Cups.

Most people seem to think Synchronised winning was some sort of fluke and a repeat is out of the question.

Jonjo is a master and having them spot on for the big day. Aleberta's Run almost pulled off winning the Ryanair again and Don't Push It ran a blinder of his new mark in the National.

Unlike Don't Push It Synchronises doesn't have to carry any sort of penalty and you can bet Jonjo will have him trained to the minute for the renewal,

He's a young horse witha big future with the added bonus he's even better on heavy or soft ground should that be the case next season.

I just can't see why ayone could even contemplate backing Long Run to reverse places, at this early stage.
 
SteveM said:
...damnation about missing the 12s, but 10s is so much the wrong price that I don't feel too bad. The only account I had with VC was one you had to pay money into before making a bet and I'd forget to draw on it, so stopped using them.
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Can you organise a few of those accounts for me that you don't have to pay into before making a bet please SteveM? I reckon I could make it pay under those conditions....:whistle:
 
For Synchroised to retain his Gold Cup than he will either have to improve on his OR of 168 or run into a similarly shocking Gold Cup field. Neither is likely. I've never been so confident in saying he won't retain the Gold Cup. In fact don't be surprised if he never wins another race.
 
I have Sir Des Champs 167P in my figures,
Long run is not better than 170 nowdays and at her pick is a 175 at Kempton.

Mullins horse jumps better and for next season Gold Cup I think Sir Des Champs is a clear pick at the moment.
 
Bob's Worth is a good horse with a great record at the track but 8s is very stingy. I'd far sooner have FL at double the price.
 
I think it's still difficult to win more than one GC, either successively, or especially in trying to regain it, and I don't think Long Run can do it.

For me, it'll most likely be one of this season's novices, but not Grands Crus as I don't think he stays.
 
The value bet at the moment has to bet Hidden Cyclone at 50/1 .

He was a sick horse when only beaten 1 1/2 lenghts by Sir Des Champs at Leopardstown and has'nt been seen since.
 
Has Weapon's Amnesty been retired or is he the new Monsignor ? If he did recapture his best form he would be a contender.

I remain of the view that Long Run's GC was enormously overrated . Denman was plainly on the slide as shown by his Hennessy third and KS was way below form last year he only held What a Friend by a short head. It is possible that he might be revitalised by headgear but I suspect he is just overrated .
 
Michael O'Leary recently described Weapon's Amnesty as a 'write off' - although that was a fear rather than a certain statement,

Just hope Last Instalment isn't gone the same way....
 
Ardross said:
I remain of the view that Long Run's GC was enormously overrated . Denman was plainly on the slide as shown by his Hennessy third and KS was way below form last year he only held What a Friend by a short head. It is possible that he might be revitalised by headgear but I suspect he is just overrated .
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If you accept this year's Gold Cup as Long Run's true form, then maybe you could explain why he achieved much his lowest rating (RPR) since his Paddy power run, some 7 races previous?
Overrated he may have been; in the same form this year - never.
 
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