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Do you think Long Run is that much of a certainty?

I absolutely agree that he is the most likely winner but I'm not so sure he's as home and hosed as people think. A lot will depend on the make-up of the race, the ground and so on, but I can certainly envisage a scenario where I would far rather be with Kauto again.

For example, a small field, a weak field, no front runners and good ground, all entirely plausible. I'd be disappointed if Ruby couldn't win in those circumstances.

I must admit I thought the 5/1 about Kauto with Stan James was outstanding. He won't run again so the only chance you're taking is him making the race. If he does then he can be no bigger than 3/1 surely?

Long Run on the other hand is due to run in 'the Denman'. He won't be suited by a prep race (poor field, no pace, etc) so I can easily see him being unimpressive and that might lead Kauto to shorten up some more. The Nicholls hype machine will be in full flow and by mid March there will be plenty brainwashed into thinking Kauto is a certainty.

<blockquote data-quote="Zenyatta" data-source="post: 2359296" data-attributes="member: 65948">Do you think Long Run is that much of a certainty?I absolutely agree that he is the most likely winner but I&#039;m not so sure he&#039;s as home and hosed as people think. A lot will depend on the make-up of the race, the ground and so on, but I can certainly envisage a scenario where I would far rather be with Kauto again.For example, a small field, a weak field, no front runners and good ground, all entirely plausible. I&#039;d be disappointed if Ruby couldn&#039;t win in those circumstances.I must admit I thought the 5/1 about Kauto with Stan James was outstanding. He won&#039;t run again so the only chance you&#039;re taking is him making the race. If he does then he can be no bigger than 3/1 surely?Long Run on the other hand is due to run in &#039;the Denman&#039;. He won&#039;t be suited by a prep race (poor field, no pace, etc) so I can easily see him being unimpressive and that might lead Kauto to shorten up some more. The Nicholls hype machine will be in full flow and by mid March there will be plenty brainwashed into thinking Kauto is a certainty.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Zenyatta, post: 2359296, member: 65948"] Do you think Long Run is that much of a certainty? I absolutely agree that he is the most likely winner but I'm not so sure he's as home and hosed as people think. A lot will depend on the make-up of the race, the ground and so on, but I can certainly envisage a scenario where I would far rather be with Kauto again. For example, a small field, a weak field, no front runners and good ground, all entirely plausible. I'd be disappointed if Ruby couldn't win in those circumstances. I must admit I thought the 5/1 about Kauto with Stan James was outstanding. He won't run again so the only chance you're taking is him making the race. If he does then he can be no bigger than 3/1 surely? Long Run on the other hand is due to run in 'the Denman'. He won't be suited by a prep race (poor field, no pace, etc) so I can easily see him being unimpressive and that might lead Kauto to shorten up some more. The Nicholls hype machine will be in full flow and by mid March there will be plenty brainwashed into thinking Kauto is a certainty. [/QUOTE]

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