Road to the Grand National

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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A bit early I know, but Niche Market ran a stormer in the Hennessy and appeals at 25 on the machine.

He ran today off 148 (3lbs wrong) and if the handicapper isn't too harsh he could run off a decent mark.
 
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The handicapper tends to take a positive view of Hennessys. Expect Niche Market to take a hike.

I thought What A Friend ran a great race. Wonder what made him run about so much and will he be that much better when he focuses on running forwards and not sideways.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The handicapper tends to take a positive view of Hennessys. Expect Niche Market to take a hike.

I thought What A Friend ran a great race. Wonder what made him run about so much and will he be that much better when he focuses on running forwards and not sideways.
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I think he's just not genuine with his head carriage but plenty of ability
 
I liked Snowy Mornings run today. Settled mid to back and then was staying on at the end,albeit through beaten horses, and would probably have been a bit closer but for clouting the 2nd last. Not a bad run though after 6 months off.
 
Much as it was wonderful to see Denman pummel them yesterday, there's a bit of me that still likens him to Roman Warrior. Roman Warrior could put up breathtaking handicap performances under 10st but couldn't beat the top sprinters at 9-0 levels. I think he even won an Ayr Gold Cup off 120 or thereabouts, which would be unheard of these days.

I'm not saying Denman isn't top class. We know he is one of the best of modern times. I wouldn't expect him, however, to beat Desert Orchid or Burrough HIll Lad at level weights. I think See More Business would probably run a length either side of him on top form. Carvills Hill might have been better.

Arkle is in a different league.

As for winning the National, I reckon they'd be temtped to enter and I reckon Phil Smith would be keen enough to tempt him to run by setting him no more than 175 at 11-12. It would probably still put all bar a few out of the handicap proper and give him a fair chance of defying top weight. I'd back him to do it.
 
I believe that he would. I generally work on the principle that people overplay the effect of weight on a horse. If more handicap's finished bunched then I might revise that opinion. Equally I fail to see how an extra stone on his back would penalise a horse like Denman as much as it would penalise a much smaller horse.

However, I do accept that at the end of 4 miles, that weight is a hindrance.

The reason that I would back him though is that experience tells us that at the end of a National there are very few horses left in contention. What are the odds of one of those horses who is remaining a) being in the same league of ability as Denman and b) for them to be close enough for any weight-advantage to make the difference.

Like any bet, the odds on offer would determine whether he is any value, but in terms of can he win off top weight, for me, certainly.
 
betsmate said:
I believe that he would. I generally work on the principle that people overplay the effect of weight on a horse. If more handicap's finished bunched then I might revise that opinion. Equally I fail to see how an extra stone on his back would penalise a horse like Denman as much as it would penalise a much smaller horse.

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That's always been my argument with regards to weight. We'd expect Night Nurse (a big horse) to give away weight in a handicap but would anyone expect Istabraq to do something similar, or think him a lesser horse if he couldn't?

That said we shouldn't take away from the top class performance of Denman yesterday - though he is built to carry weight.
 
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