Rp Chase

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,117
Location
Leyland
I`m not looking past Gungadu for this. I like backing top weights on turning courses that don`t put as much of a premium on carrying a welter burden. Goodwood is the best track for this strategy on the flat - Kempton over the sticks. Even though the ground was heavy last year i still managed to come out ahead on the race thanks to Lacdoudal getting up for third. Gungadu isn`t a great price but at 5.1 on the machine i wouldn`t say he was bad value - and at 2.43 to place i won`t be losing any money if he finishes in the first three - an important consideration with Cheltenham just round the corner.
 
One journo I read today fancies Bagan, but he's had quite a history of setbacks.
Seems to be well in at the weights though. Agreed Gungadu is the likely one.
I usually get the winner of this, would like to keep up the record!
 
Dream Alliance looks overpriced in a race the stable has a reasonable record in.
But for his blip in the Welsh National he'd be a much shorter price.
Hopefully he won't get rid of his rider like he did when looking like winning at Exeter a couple of weeks back.
 
The big race of the weekend and recent Sandown winner Gungadu is going to be hard to beat despite shouldering top weight. He has been going very well at home and whilst he is 9lb higher for his win he is considered well handicapped enough by connections. This tighter 3m should suit and a big run is expected. However I think there are a couple of more likely winners in the race.
Ungaro nearly landed the goods for us in the Great Yorkshire Chase last time being done on the line by An Accordion but it was a step in the right direction and confidence is again high in the yard. He has had his finest hour over fences here and is one with each way claims.
Palarshan is another expected to run his race and finally has a crack at 3 miles, he ran two good races at Cheltenham earlier in the season and is definitely progressing at present. He comes here in good form and the visor is applied to try and help him travel a bit better today. A big run is expected and he has each way claims.
However I firmly expect LE VOFONI to score here at 25/1. I’ve had this horse down all season as a Racing Post Chase horse and it seems Nicholls has reserved the same plan. He ran better than expected in the Boylesports Gold Cup but it was a fine effort in 2nd behind a potential Champion Chase challenger. He was disappointing on New Years Day but the ground was tacky on that occasion and he does need good ground. He also probably hadn’t got over a hard race just two weeks earlier. He is in fine form at home and Nick Scholfield keeps the ride having got on very well with him in the past. He will relish this 3m on an easy track and for me he is sure to go very well with technically carrying 11st 3lb. He is overpriced here and warrants each way respect. My contacts in the yard also say he is going well and a good run is anticipated, although they don’t think he will beat Gungadu, I disagree.
 
well done Gungadu backers, got nice return on Le Volfoni, took 25s but thanks to Stan James paid out at 33s, always a nice touch.
 
It terms of momentum lost, it cost him more than the margin of defeat imo. Gungado was gutsy though so it wasn't a certainty.

The Nicholl's horse has been my only winner today though so I am glad he didn't!
 
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