Sarafina, Grand Prix Saint-Cloud

Thanks guys. she was really throwing herself around in the early stages, but she quickens so well at the business end. A faster pace will help her a lot in the Arc.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Still can't see her troubling the Arc principles despite overcoming this.
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A similar view was expressed by Graeme Rodway in today's Post: "I'm not convinced she's in the same league as Workforce."

Workforce won it last year and is either clear or joint fav in every book this year. Sarafina was beaten a head and two and a half lengths into third last year and earned the somewhat unusual Form Book comment "nearly brought down...on final turn."

Unless you take the view that her chance was somehow improved by the interference she suffered last year or that she's gone backwards this year how can she not be "in the same league as" or capable of "troubling" Workforce?
 
She should be only a point or so bigger than Workforce - I agree completely Gus.

She's better than everything else.
 
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I can see no piece of form where she's improved on last season though and given the proximity of Cirrus Des Aigles on her two starts (also if you believe Planteur ran to form at Ascot then he's a good marker for the form again), it puts the form into perspective; he's a very talented Group Two horse but is only that.

Also, the colts look a lot stronger than last year, I wouldn't be backing her at 10s.
 
She quite possibly would have beaten Workforce last year if she wasn't nearly brought down - that same horse has shown he is the best there is so I see no reason why she shouldn't be in the top 3 in the betting at the very least.

The thing is, she is a great example of a horse who needs a fast run 1m4, and won't look as good until she gets this (albeit that was very impressive considering how she pulled and the slow pace). The Arc. Another great but underrated horse, Youmzain, needed this as well, and I think come October she'll be the one to beat with Workforce.
 
True, but by the same token, the form of her performances this season has been let down by other performers.

The Arc thread is prob a better place for this debate but I struggle to see much value in the market, it's around spot on. Give Sarafina went off 12/1 for the race last year and she has stronger competition this year and she's not shown she's improved on last year, I wouldn't be snapping the 10s up.
 
Sarafina was very unlucky last year in the Arc


on form and also looks, she is a better horse this year, it is a strong edition with plenty of good horses, but she has a good chance to win the arc.
 
Gamla Stan said:
the proximity of Cirrus Des Aigles on her two starts (also if you believe Planteur ran to form at Ascot then he's a good marker for the form again), it puts the form into perspective; he's a very talented Group Two horse but is only that.
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I think you are being mischievous now. It would have taken some horse to finish far ahead of Cirrus Des Aigles off that pace giving him the start that she gave him.

I think she has an outstanding chance in the Arc. She is guaranteed to run. 10s would be a bad price if Workforce, Rewilding, SYT, SNA, TB, PM, Barran, Galikova and Reliable Man all show up.

The likelihood is that 3 or 4 from that list won't show up.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I think you are being mischievous now. It would have taken some horse to finish far ahead of Cirrus Des Aigles off that pace giving him the start that she gave him.
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I totally agree but she only beat him by a length in the Ganay and whilst she can be accused of not being fully fit, the horse she beat by 2L in the Corrida, Announce then went on to get beat 3/4 of a length by Cirrus Des Aigles so the form ties in at every angle. It really depends on how highly you rate Cirrus Des Aigles as he's an excellent marker for the French middle distance form this year.

I couldn't back her at 10s when she went off for last year's renewal at 12s where Behkabad, Planteur and Fame and Glory went off as the front 3 in the betting. This year, those three are all looking like starting at double figure prices which goes to show how much stronger the race looks this year.
 
I like Sarafina a lot and backed her last year along with Behkabad, both of whom were unlucky on the day. However I think this years race will be a much stronger affair as the french 3yo's look better than they are being given credit for and there are some very good older horses knocking about. As a result I won't be backing her again unless she puts in a special performance in the interim that convinces me otherwise.

Pour Moi and/or Baraan will carry my money.

Re: Lemaire - He had a shocker on Arc day last year, lets hope he doesn't do it again.
 
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It's quite difficult to know which ones will run in this year's race, but there is a real concentration of suitable horses. Workforce sets the standard but there will be a few buzzing around him. It could be a really good race this year.
 
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