Not long now before the end of the jumps season proper.
The Scottish National has always been one of my favourite races, win or lose. It's invariably a puzzling contortion: not only do few horses stay this kind of trip but also, the good ground and the nature of running are factors that I take into consideration.
When I write 'nature of running', I mean that it often pays to be not far off the pace; once behind, there can be quite some traffic to negotiate come the home turn.
I think that Captain Cody is a fascinating runner. I backed him at Cheltenham, in the NH Handicap, as it was his first handicap over a new trip and I thought he was going quite nicely enough when unseating at the 13th. He comes here off the same mark and has me thinking that a staying trip has been in the planning for some time. The sire, Arctic Cosmos, out of a Cloudings mare, indicates that the trip will not be a problem.
It seems that he is generally suited by sitting midfield, which is preferable, in this race, to a hold-up horse. Now, the going is somewhat of an unknown factor; his form, really, reads that he prefers cut. However, Mullins runs him, so might not seem concerned; I'll trust him on that. Also, sire Arctic Cosmos does sire some horses that go on the good ground.
The booking of Harry Cobden, is a bit of an eye-catcher, too. Standing at 14/1 for the places, he'll do for me.
Captain Cody - 3.35 Ayr 6 places 14/1 Ew
I simply have to have a small Ew on Dom Of Mary, who is my dark horse in one of my 'horses to follow' competition lists, More then that, though, This one won the Sussex National for me last year and was second in the same this season: he's an absolute stayer. The stable have had this in mind for some time, it would seem, given his entries so far and I think the 4m will suit the horse well alright. All his winning has been on softer ground but he's put in some good runs on good ground too. He has been known to race prominently as well, which is a bonus so I feel that the current 66/1 is just too big to pass up.
Lastly, I will also add an ew bet on Surrey Quest, 2nd last year and has been looking like top form may be approaching. Ew at 10/1.
My only other interest will be:
Whistle Stop Tour - 1.43 Ayr 11/2 Ew
I've had my eye on this lad all season but, I must say, Lucinda's campaigning with her horses is like the peace of God: it passeth all understanding, to quote Phillipians and Joe Orton. I don't get it. However, WST has ended up here and I'm trusting that the ground will suit, although most of his running has been of a softer surface.
Since he's been on my radar for some time, it would be silly not to back him.
Good luck with any selections you may make today.
The Spring Handicap at Newbury is an impossible conundrum. I have one of mine to follow going, in the shape of Arisaig, so I'll have an insurance tickle on that for breadcrumbs but, really, I'll not get any betting under my belt until June.
The Scottish National has always been one of my favourite races, win or lose. It's invariably a puzzling contortion: not only do few horses stay this kind of trip but also, the good ground and the nature of running are factors that I take into consideration.
When I write 'nature of running', I mean that it often pays to be not far off the pace; once behind, there can be quite some traffic to negotiate come the home turn.
I think that Captain Cody is a fascinating runner. I backed him at Cheltenham, in the NH Handicap, as it was his first handicap over a new trip and I thought he was going quite nicely enough when unseating at the 13th. He comes here off the same mark and has me thinking that a staying trip has been in the planning for some time. The sire, Arctic Cosmos, out of a Cloudings mare, indicates that the trip will not be a problem.
It seems that he is generally suited by sitting midfield, which is preferable, in this race, to a hold-up horse. Now, the going is somewhat of an unknown factor; his form, really, reads that he prefers cut. However, Mullins runs him, so might not seem concerned; I'll trust him on that. Also, sire Arctic Cosmos does sire some horses that go on the good ground.
The booking of Harry Cobden, is a bit of an eye-catcher, too. Standing at 14/1 for the places, he'll do for me.
Captain Cody - 3.35 Ayr 6 places 14/1 Ew
I simply have to have a small Ew on Dom Of Mary, who is my dark horse in one of my 'horses to follow' competition lists, More then that, though, This one won the Sussex National for me last year and was second in the same this season: he's an absolute stayer. The stable have had this in mind for some time, it would seem, given his entries so far and I think the 4m will suit the horse well alright. All his winning has been on softer ground but he's put in some good runs on good ground too. He has been known to race prominently as well, which is a bonus so I feel that the current 66/1 is just too big to pass up.
Lastly, I will also add an ew bet on Surrey Quest, 2nd last year and has been looking like top form may be approaching. Ew at 10/1.
My only other interest will be:
Whistle Stop Tour - 1.43 Ayr 11/2 Ew
I've had my eye on this lad all season but, I must say, Lucinda's campaigning with her horses is like the peace of God: it passeth all understanding, to quote Phillipians and Joe Orton. I don't get it. However, WST has ended up here and I'm trusting that the ground will suit, although most of his running has been of a softer surface.
Since he's been on my radar for some time, it would be silly not to back him.
Good luck with any selections you may make today.
The Spring Handicap at Newbury is an impossible conundrum. I have one of mine to follow going, in the shape of Arisaig, so I'll have an insurance tickle on that for breadcrumbs but, really, I'll not get any betting under my belt until June.
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