It’s a decent day’s racing, don’t you think?
It goes without saying but I’ll write it anyway: I love a staying chase and tomorrow we have the 3m 4f Grand National Trial Handicap Chase on forecast G/sft ground with the likelihood that it’ll ride like that come post time.
I’ve pored over this for days, having tried to be as open-minded as I can in considering the distance and going and I must report that my brain cells are throbbing to the point of pain.
I suppose the place to start is Yeah man, who won this a year ago in the heavy. Held up that day, he duly came and won it well, wearing first-time pieces. He did idle once the race was won and I think that he may be hard pressed here to go in again off a 9Lb higher rating. The drying ground shouldn’t hold too many fears but I’m wondering if there might be something of interest lurking lower down the weights.
Apple Away has disappointed me, you know. I’d held such high hopes for her last term and was convinced a big handicap was the aim. Well, this is big enough, I suppose, but Ms Russell’s avowed intent, it’s reported, is to have a go at the Scottish National. If that’s the case, AA’s present 138 mark would see her sitting on maybe 10-8 for that and there’s the conundrum: a win in this race would see her raised by at least 5Lbs, giving a weight of 10-13 or so at Ayr. Hmm.. I would think they wouldn’t want her to drop much further in the handicap and risk not making the cut either. The ideal scenario would be to just preserve her current mark. All in all, I will swerve a win bet on her because of the above but also because she has become somewhat underwhelming.
No doubt you would have seen Where It All Began’s Chepstow run. He looked like he would be pulled up one stage, so far was he behind the field. How surprised were we when he coasted up to the leaders approaching four out. It was four out that did for him, though; leaving him sprawling and lucky to keep his jockey up top. So, PU he was. This fellow is capable of a higher standard but he does have a habit of making mistakes and that puts me off him, so it does. The ground might prove too lively, as well.
Venetia’s kept Royale Pagaille up top and I have a feeling that the stable’s other one, Fontaine Collonges may run well; she loves the course, that’s certain and 25/1 looks tempting. I've seen a comment on the thread about the race where it's posited that FC wouldn't stay the trip. Well, I'd disagree with that; if a Saddler maker out of a Dom Alco doesn't get the trip I'd be very surprised. Yes, I see that Cepage is, to my mind, an exception even though she is sired by Saddler Maker out of a Dom Alco mare. Saddler Maker is the sire of Guetapan Collonges, a winner over 3m 3f. That is a full brother to Fontaine Collonges. Also the sire of Bristol de Mai, who won this race, after the winner was disqualified for a banned substance but ran a stormer anyway.
The Hemmings’ had two runners in this last year and one of them, Iron Bridge, ran third while the other, Famous Bridge, was travelling nicely enough when he smacked the 17th and Sean Quinlan was catapulted from the saddle. FB has only had three runs since, ran a lovely race in the Ultima, is 3Lbs lighter than last year and sports first-time pieces. It's noteworthy that the owners prefer this one to last year's third Iron Bridge, who was entered for this but doesn't go. At 9/1, FB looks a worthy shout.
In the end, I’ve chosen also to side with the mare Galia Des Liteaux. I’m loving her second at Warwick over 3m5f last January off 145 and I have an inkling that she may be quite well handicapped on some of her form. She meets the Welsh National Val Dancer on a stone better off, too. Various types of ground seem to suit so it’ll be her and Famous Bridge for me and I look forward to a thrilling race, come what may.
The good sport draws an Ew L15 out of me in the form of:
Terresita – 3.00 Ascot 15/2
Galia Des Liteaux – 3.15 Haydock 8/1
Parachuti – 4.00 Wincanton 8/1
Hollow Games – 4.25 Haydock 5/1
Ew Singles
Ew L15
Good Luck, whatever you do.
It goes without saying but I’ll write it anyway: I love a staying chase and tomorrow we have the 3m 4f Grand National Trial Handicap Chase on forecast G/sft ground with the likelihood that it’ll ride like that come post time.
I’ve pored over this for days, having tried to be as open-minded as I can in considering the distance and going and I must report that my brain cells are throbbing to the point of pain.
I suppose the place to start is Yeah man, who won this a year ago in the heavy. Held up that day, he duly came and won it well, wearing first-time pieces. He did idle once the race was won and I think that he may be hard pressed here to go in again off a 9Lb higher rating. The drying ground shouldn’t hold too many fears but I’m wondering if there might be something of interest lurking lower down the weights.
Apple Away has disappointed me, you know. I’d held such high hopes for her last term and was convinced a big handicap was the aim. Well, this is big enough, I suppose, but Ms Russell’s avowed intent, it’s reported, is to have a go at the Scottish National. If that’s the case, AA’s present 138 mark would see her sitting on maybe 10-8 for that and there’s the conundrum: a win in this race would see her raised by at least 5Lbs, giving a weight of 10-13 or so at Ayr. Hmm.. I would think they wouldn’t want her to drop much further in the handicap and risk not making the cut either. The ideal scenario would be to just preserve her current mark. All in all, I will swerve a win bet on her because of the above but also because she has become somewhat underwhelming.
No doubt you would have seen Where It All Began’s Chepstow run. He looked like he would be pulled up one stage, so far was he behind the field. How surprised were we when he coasted up to the leaders approaching four out. It was four out that did for him, though; leaving him sprawling and lucky to keep his jockey up top. So, PU he was. This fellow is capable of a higher standard but he does have a habit of making mistakes and that puts me off him, so it does. The ground might prove too lively, as well.
Venetia’s kept Royale Pagaille up top and I have a feeling that the stable’s other one, Fontaine Collonges may run well; she loves the course, that’s certain and 25/1 looks tempting. I've seen a comment on the thread about the race where it's posited that FC wouldn't stay the trip. Well, I'd disagree with that; if a Saddler maker out of a Dom Alco doesn't get the trip I'd be very surprised. Yes, I see that Cepage is, to my mind, an exception even though she is sired by Saddler Maker out of a Dom Alco mare. Saddler Maker is the sire of Guetapan Collonges, a winner over 3m 3f. That is a full brother to Fontaine Collonges. Also the sire of Bristol de Mai, who won this race, after the winner was disqualified for a banned substance but ran a stormer anyway.
The Hemmings’ had two runners in this last year and one of them, Iron Bridge, ran third while the other, Famous Bridge, was travelling nicely enough when he smacked the 17th and Sean Quinlan was catapulted from the saddle. FB has only had three runs since, ran a lovely race in the Ultima, is 3Lbs lighter than last year and sports first-time pieces. It's noteworthy that the owners prefer this one to last year's third Iron Bridge, who was entered for this but doesn't go. At 9/1, FB looks a worthy shout.
In the end, I’ve chosen also to side with the mare Galia Des Liteaux. I’m loving her second at Warwick over 3m5f last January off 145 and I have an inkling that she may be quite well handicapped on some of her form. She meets the Welsh National Val Dancer on a stone better off, too. Various types of ground seem to suit so it’ll be her and Famous Bridge for me and I look forward to a thrilling race, come what may.
The good sport draws an Ew L15 out of me in the form of:
Terresita – 3.00 Ascot 15/2
Galia Des Liteaux – 3.15 Haydock 8/1
Parachuti – 4.00 Wincanton 8/1
Hollow Games – 4.25 Haydock 5/1
Ew Singles
Ew L15
Good Luck, whatever you do.
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