At last, some proper racing across the board today. Yesterday saw some great NH action and today looks even better to me and i've enjoyed getting my teeth into the form.
Naturally, it being a Saturday, with so many races, it must be an overall story of modest stakes for most selections. There are two bets in he mainframe for me, though, who might warrant larger stakes. Firstly:
In Excelsis Deo - Cheltenham 1.15 - 5/2 Win
I cottoned onto this fellow after his first ever chase run last term. My notes, written at the time, tell me:
"21/12/22 Hereford 2m chase sft.
Just 4yo with only 5 races under rules, this French – bred is a son of Saddex, sire of Editeur Du Gite: a very smart 2 miler.
Here, this one jumped like a real natural and as always tanking away to score easily. He’s a strapping fellow, too, with loads to come as he grows. Exciting."
His runs after that were disappointing, to say the least but I did have the suspicion that they were keeping their powder dry. My main thought was that 2m would be the best distance and they might aim him at some smart handicaps at that distance. So it proved with his first run this season, over 2m, when he put all his best work in at the end. After that run, my notes read:
"Cheltenham 28/10/23 (Class 2) (4yo+) (1m7f199yds) 2m Old Good 13 fences
Yup, here was a decent handicap: just the way I thought it might pan out. It might seem, that after finishing so well here, that he’ll be bound for 2m 4f soon (maybe the PPower Gold Cup) but I’m not sure that’s his trip. I’d prefer a 2m contest."
I'm very happy to see that he's drifted form the 15/8 last night to the present 5/2, which I have taken. Overall, having gone up just 1Lb for that last run, over what I consider to be his best trip, I'd say the current 5/2 looks good value for the win.
For the second of my two main bets today I have picked:
Presenting A Queen - 1.00 Hereford 14/1 (fixed odds, just 3 places) Win 14/1, place 3/1.
If you wish, he may be backed for 4 places @ 11/1 currently.
This race will feature Miss Williams' Hever Rose, who won son easily two runs ago at Lingfield. That'll be a warm favourite, no doubt. However, there are reasons to believe that the 11/4 on offer right now might be just too short and I've got my eyes on anther with whom she has collateral form: Presenting A Queen. When Hever Rose won so easily at Lingfield, this mare finished almost 5L second, giving HR 19Lbs, no less. today, PAQ is giving 10Lbs - 9Lbs better off for that 5L. Many would consider that pull to be insufficient to turn the form around but I would beg to differ.
That Lingfield race was over 2m 4f but today's trip, 3m, gives the handicap a different look. Crucially, it may well be that it will hold different prospects for the two mares.
Firstly, Hever Rose does not have the breeding of a 3 miler, imo, whereas PAQ would be needing every yard of it and must improve for the extra half mile. This debut over the trip could prove telling.
Another factor is how PAQ ran in that Lingfield contest. She hit a flat spot mid - race and jockey Rex Dingle had to give the reigns a shake to keep her up to her work. It gave the impression that her concentration is apt to wander. With that n mind, I'm heartened to see that they apply the pieces today, which may well give us another 'edge'.
So:
2 x Singles
Win Double
Elsewhere, I cannot leave today's wonderful sport alone so i'll put these four together for a little, side, Ew L15:
We've All Been Caught - 12.40 Cheltenham
Il Ridoto - 1.50 Cheltenham
City Chief - 2.25 Cheltenham
Sail Away - 3.15 Doncaster.
Naturally, it being a Saturday, with so many races, it must be an overall story of modest stakes for most selections. There are two bets in he mainframe for me, though, who might warrant larger stakes. Firstly:
In Excelsis Deo - Cheltenham 1.15 - 5/2 Win
I cottoned onto this fellow after his first ever chase run last term. My notes, written at the time, tell me:
"21/12/22 Hereford 2m chase sft.
Just 4yo with only 5 races under rules, this French – bred is a son of Saddex, sire of Editeur Du Gite: a very smart 2 miler.
Here, this one jumped like a real natural and as always tanking away to score easily. He’s a strapping fellow, too, with loads to come as he grows. Exciting."
His runs after that were disappointing, to say the least but I did have the suspicion that they were keeping their powder dry. My main thought was that 2m would be the best distance and they might aim him at some smart handicaps at that distance. So it proved with his first run this season, over 2m, when he put all his best work in at the end. After that run, my notes read:
"Cheltenham 28/10/23 (Class 2) (4yo+) (1m7f199yds) 2m Old Good 13 fences
Yup, here was a decent handicap: just the way I thought it might pan out. It might seem, that after finishing so well here, that he’ll be bound for 2m 4f soon (maybe the PPower Gold Cup) but I’m not sure that’s his trip. I’d prefer a 2m contest."
I'm very happy to see that he's drifted form the 15/8 last night to the present 5/2, which I have taken. Overall, having gone up just 1Lb for that last run, over what I consider to be his best trip, I'd say the current 5/2 looks good value for the win.
For the second of my two main bets today I have picked:
Presenting A Queen - 1.00 Hereford 14/1 (fixed odds, just 3 places) Win 14/1, place 3/1.
If you wish, he may be backed for 4 places @ 11/1 currently.
This race will feature Miss Williams' Hever Rose, who won son easily two runs ago at Lingfield. That'll be a warm favourite, no doubt. However, there are reasons to believe that the 11/4 on offer right now might be just too short and I've got my eyes on anther with whom she has collateral form: Presenting A Queen. When Hever Rose won so easily at Lingfield, this mare finished almost 5L second, giving HR 19Lbs, no less. today, PAQ is giving 10Lbs - 9Lbs better off for that 5L. Many would consider that pull to be insufficient to turn the form around but I would beg to differ.
That Lingfield race was over 2m 4f but today's trip, 3m, gives the handicap a different look. Crucially, it may well be that it will hold different prospects for the two mares.
Firstly, Hever Rose does not have the breeding of a 3 miler, imo, whereas PAQ would be needing every yard of it and must improve for the extra half mile. This debut over the trip could prove telling.
Another factor is how PAQ ran in that Lingfield contest. She hit a flat spot mid - race and jockey Rex Dingle had to give the reigns a shake to keep her up to her work. It gave the impression that her concentration is apt to wander. With that n mind, I'm heartened to see that they apply the pieces today, which may well give us another 'edge'.
So:
2 x Singles
Win Double
Elsewhere, I cannot leave today's wonderful sport alone so i'll put these four together for a little, side, Ew L15:
We've All Been Caught - 12.40 Cheltenham
Il Ridoto - 1.50 Cheltenham
City Chief - 2.25 Cheltenham
Sail Away - 3.15 Doncaster.