Saturday 25th March 2023

yorick

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Mar 2, 2018
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Not a great Saturday, by any means and we reach an odd time when the seasons are changing, horses can be at the end of a long season and results can be 'interesting'.

I thin I've found three that are of some interest for me today but it should be said, they are not ringing recommendations; rather they are horses I've picked that may have some sort of chance at reasonable odds.

Firstly:

Doyen Breed - 3.35 Kelso.

I've chosen this one by default, really. I was drawn to the race because Hill Sixteen is a runner. He is a National fancy for me. To be honest, I was surprised they're putting him out; I had been expecting them to run him as fresh as paint for the big one. I have a feeling that tomorrow's run will be just to 'Tighten the screws' as Mick Fitz would say. In which case, I'm thinking who might be a likely candidate.

Well, I just cannot be interested in the favourite, Forward Plan, given that he is, surely, needing better ground than this. Naturally, though, Big River, having won 8 times on the course, must be respected and Mighty Thunder, as Outsider has mentioned, has shown glimmers of a return to form. However, I'm thinking that a longer trip will suit that one, having won over 4m the last twice.

Interesting that Hill Sixteen's trainer Thompson has another lower down the weights: Doyen Breed. He's on 131 now but a year ago he was rated 141 and taking on some smart horses in good company. Lto saw him keeping on over an inadequate trip and perhaps herald a return to form.

I'm thinking that he may (and I stress may) be the one here.

Next, I'm looking at Monsieur Lecoq - 4.25 Newbury. On the face of it, it may seem that Family Business has the beating of him on their last run. However, I'm not sure that this is a foregone conclusion. The ground could be key here, since FB has shown a penchant for a sounder surface. ML, too, is now 8lbs below his LWR over c/d. The 9/1 secured last night looks like very good value to me.

Finally, I can see Riders On The Storm (2.05 Newbury) giving a good account of himself, hopefully. Of course, it may be that they're saving him for Aintree, where he's won twice before but, on bare form alone, he'd be a live bet here.

To be honest, I'm not that taken with Honneur D'Ajonc against the form of my fellow and, having written that, I would discount ]Super Six, too, who has form intertwined iwth him.

No, I think ROTS has form way above his rivals here. He's back to his LWR here and that last win saw him beat Hitman and Ga Law. That form shines like a beacon imo.

Lto, he ran over 3m - too far - but that may have put him just right for this. What's more, they apply the first-time visor and jockey Gavin Sheehan has a good record for the trainer. 11/1 looks too big and is sound ew sense to me.


So, I shall enjoy watching these take a turn around their respective course and have a little on but really I'm keeping my powder dry.
 
Riders Onthe Storm was ridden for a good blow, nothing else and will strip fitter come Aintree. All the wins he's registered, he's been either held up off the pace or tracked leaders. Here he went off in front at far too strong a pace in the conditions.

However, he jumps like a stag, doesn't he? A natural.
 
"in a change of headgear, soon faded once he'd lost the lead. Last season fizzled out after he'd made a bright start, and it's becoming a similar story this term."

So said the RP race analysis.

However, making the running has not been his style of running and they were not on it today, believe me. Although the Topham, just like all the national-fence races, is somewhat of a lottery, he is, as stated above, an excellent jumper and I'd have to have a look if he turned up there.

Doyen breed did exceptionally well to finish as close as he did after an absolutely catastrophic blunder which destroyed the 2nd fence.
 
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