Saturday 29th April 2023

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yorick

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Mar 2, 2018
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Once again, I'm struck down with a dose of the early - season quandaries.

Anyone who reads this stuff will be vaguely aware that I've had my beady eye on:

Storm Fox - 8.15 Doncaster. 14/1 Ew

He made a good impression on his track debut last term, running 3rd to Squealer, a decent horse who sits on an OR of 91. The late, unhurried headway he made that day was notable. I think this one may be nicely handicapped, you know.

So, the quandary. My indecision centres around the going. His sire liked top of the ground and the progeny show a marked preference. Indeed, that Squealer run was achieved on good ground.

So here I am, wondering what my bet ight be. On the one hand, he's having his handicap debut in a class 6, which seems silly to me; I think he's shown promise of a bit higher than that level. On the other, the Donny ground is unequivocally soft.

So, I want to be sensible but don't want to miss a golden opportunity.

I suppose I'll halve my bet and be sensible. I wouldn't be surprised if he tails off, to be honest lol.
 
Mmmh....

I don't know whether you watched the race but two possibilities present themselves, imo.

a) The horse is not resolute and this was shown by his hanging into the horse racing next to him in the final 1.5f.

b) he just wasn't enjoying the underfoot conditions and that's why he raced awkwardly and had a tendency to hang.

Really, you make your choice. My feeling is that the ground was wrong and that he's a different horse when it dries out.

As it happens, I was correct to exercise circumspection with my stake. I actually backed the winner as a little saver so, overall, not too much damage done.

He's definitely still on my list and I look forward to seeing where /when they run him next.
 
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