Saturday 7th Feb - Today's Bets, Betting, Race & Runner Analysis + Future Pointers

[chaumi]

Off to Newbury today, so writing here will be on the sparse side. Can't type on a mobile, so not much to come later.

Sadly, with Live Conti not in the big race at Newbury, the afternoon has lost some of its lustre. The adrenaline would have been off the charts.

But, Poet Laureate has stepped up as a potentially lively outsider, thanks to DO. Now half what he was on BF yesterday. Fortunately took some of it already. Could drift out again.

Can't see past Let It Rain, and maybe the Nicholls horse too, but at the prices there is no way in a month of Sunday's they'd be carrying Chaumi pennies. Old Faivoir might run into the first 5, just can't see him winning at 11 years old. Hope he doesn't have too hard a race, I fear it could be the last one.

Lanesborough might have a chance, alongside several others.

Heather Main's Iconic Times looks OK in the 2.55 Lingfield, if up near the 20s somewhere. There are a few others spread through the day to watch.

 

[Danny]

Just look after my good pal if he starts to get moody buy him a pint and tickle his tummy.

Sorry i couldnt make it. Damn working for a living to hell !

 

[Ian_Davies]

I've been twice (1984 on a trip from Warwick University and 1988 with my Dad).

Nowadays, I'm only half an hour from the track, could organise a free ticket, but simply cba.

Less is more with me going racing nowadays - I've been so many times over the years it's all become a bit same old, same old, racecourse bookmakers (most of them simply tracking the machine and adding a margin) are no use to me and the exes are a bind - I'm down on the day before I've had a bet.

Enjoy, Chaumi, across the County border in Hampshire, I'll be watching on the telly and on my phone with great interest!

 

[pawras]

5 out of 7 , I'll take that

 

[chaumi]

Pawras data on fire! Met BJ, an honour! Shame Libberty couldn't get up for 2nd from something like 20 lengths last two out. But you can't have everything.

Till the next one!

 

[pawras]

Yeah we nearly had the forecast in that one, my ratings were all about the fav Lulamba but my trial race stats pointed to Libberty Hunter being sent to make a good run, just a pity the jockey made his run a furlong too late or it would have been 2nd instead of 3rd by less than an length closing in on 2nd placed Saint Segal.

I got to bore BJ with my printouts

 

[barjon]

…..I got to bore BJ with my printouts …

Not a bit of it, sir . I find them intriguing, it’s just that I never know how to manage so much data, so I just rely mainly on whether I think a horse is ready to rock. One thing I would have bent your ear about if we’d had more time is trainers - it seems to me that some wait for their horse to be ready to rock and then enter it in a suitable race, whereas others work backwards to prep their horse to be ready to rock for a race they have targeted. Although many do both, it’s the latter that interest me since most are creatures of habit and will prep their horses in the way that has been successful for them in the past.

 

[pawras]

My trial/pointer/prep race analysis does the latter to a degree but only at g1-3 and listed level.
It looks at a particular target race and scans the results from 2000 onwards and tells me which g1-3 and listed level races historically runners in the target race have ran in over last 12 months before the target race , how they performed in the trial/pointer/prep race and then how they subsequently performed in the target race.
Looking at that year by year it builds up a picture of which races are strong positive or negative pointers, not everyone's cup of tea but personally I find it interesting and a worthwhile addition to my overall assessment.

But this is at a generic level not looking at particular trainers.

I can do this for all flat and jumps g1-3 and listed level in UK/IRE/HK (well over 1000) and I'm gradually adding those in UAE and FR as well as I'm interested in knowing much cross over there is with those.


This was very much my old man's style of analysis but it was all in his head :-/