Saturday 7th September 2024

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yorick

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Hiya.

What a lovely day's racing, eh?

I've left them alone recently apart from the odd few but today I shall enjoy the sport, back a few and attempt to steer clear of whingeing, no matter what the outcome. Promise lol.
Like you OS, I've got alerts spilling from my ears today but really there are only three which will carry my main bets.

Witch Hunter - 1.15 Haydock 11/2 Ew

Noted this one after his Royal Ascot run when fourth to Charyn in the 1m Gp1 Queen Anne Stakes, where lovely late headway was made. In his three subsequent runs, they've raced him over 7f but back to 1m today in this Gp3 could well see him giving a good account and 11/2 looks like a fierce price to me.

Palace Green - 3.20 Ascot 9/1 Ew

Although beaten 10L at Royal Ascot, I thought I saw enough to make a heavy note for Palace Green. Down to Cl3 here and 2Lbs lower than that Royal Ascot run, I think the 9/1 on show here is just too big.

Super Superjack - 5.30 Kempton 25/1 Ew

I fancied this one strongly before his last run at Goodwood but he disappointed unfortunately. Nevertheless, I can see this gelding outrunning the 25/1 on offer here.

3 x Singles
Ew Trixie


I also have Al Rufaa, Lenny's Spirit and Epic Poet in my alerts but think that Lenny's needs further.

I'll probably do the other two for insurance purposes for two ew singles and an ew double.
 
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Lovely run from Witch Hunter, making loads of ground up late on. Further? It's racing all over, isn't it, that I backed Holloway Boy the last twice in handicap company where he gets beaten but here he runs in a Gp3 and wins. C'est la guerre. I'm happy to see that 365 paid 3 places for Witch Hunter.
 
For mine, Witch Hunter was held out the back in a stack & sprint and didn't get half the ride of the winner.
Enterd in a gp2 1m race at Newmarket in 3 weeks time - pray he gets better jock up.
 
I wouldn't agree about the stack & sprint analysis, mate. The pace was a good one, I thought, and compared favourably with other races on the card. To be honest, I'm thinking if Prague was good enough, he'd have won that. He didn't seem to find as much as we thought, when out and running. For Witch Hunter, it does look like he needs further but the entries don't suggest as much. Maybe a strongly-run mile with some cut in the ground?
 
yorick said:
I wouldn't agree about the stack & sprint analysis, mate. The pace was a good one, I thought, and compared favourably with other races on the card. To be honest, I'm thinking if Prague was good enough, he'd have won that. He didn't seem to find as much as we thought, when out and running. For Witch Hunter, it does look like he needs further but the entries don't suggest as much. Maybe a strongly-run mile with some cut in the ground?
Click to expand...
Nah,Buick toyed with them.
Watch the replay and note the sectionals and MPH figures.
 
reet hard said:
Nah,Buick toyed with them.
Watch the replay and note the sectionals and MPH figures.
Click to expand...
Not trying to teach anyone to suck eggs,but I feel I owe Yorick a fuller explanation of my thinking.
Although the race was ron in a decent time overall,visually,Holloway Boy ran a strange race appearing beaten before quickening to land the prize - usually the sign of an uneven pace.
Ignoring the odd 37yds,the average speed per furlong equates to12.43 secs per furlong.
Below are the actual sectionals gleaned from the SL replay.
1). 18.23 - standing start.
2). 12.81
3). 13.44
4). 13.81
5). 12.56
6) 12.73
7). 13.08
8) 13.8
Both visually and timed sections show it wasn't a truly run contest.and my stance remains that Witch Hunter is a miler that needs a strongly run race or a better pace judge in the plate.
 
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Very detailed. Thanks for that, Reet.

Generally, I only check the mph when they're in running and sectionals is something very new to me.

I agree that 1m is the trip.
 
Super Superjack's race was a very strange one and I'm not sure we can trust the form. Coco rouge won after a race winning move from Marquand, who swept to the front halfway through and then the race complexion completely changed. I'm not sure the other riders were not caught out. Any SS will go down in the weights and is very well handicapped so nil desperandum.
 
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