Good Morning;
This weekends National Hunt racing looks pretty decent, Cheltenham hosts a spectacular card whilst Doncaster have a couple of features worthy of a mention.
Cheltenham gets under way with a tricky juvenile hurdle at 12.10, but the 12.45 appeals to me as the day’s first betting opportunity. Tramantano carries the colours of the Mould family, the colours made famous by the likes of Grange Brake, Mister Morose, Barton Bank and more recently by Bindaree. Today’s race is run in the honour of Jenny Mould and there could hardly been a more fitting winner than the families Tramantano. Far from disgraced behind Oumeyade on his seasonal reappearance he then gave Brave Villa a comfortable beating at Aintree. Again put up a good effort here last time behind Pablo Du Charmil and would have got close but for a bad blunder at the second last. He seems to be steadily improving this season and whilst the majority of his form comes on a sound surface, he has acted well on soft ground suggesting that the forecasted rain wouldn’t dampen his chances. Dropped a lb for his recent effort he still appears fairly handicapped off a mark of 135 and he is still 2lb well in on his hurdles form. The Twiston-Davies horses have been running very well at present and whilst Boomshakalaka and Something Wells have to be respected I feel they would have preferred a bit further. Tramantano’s pace could be vital to him today and he looks very solid today at 4/1, I think he is a cracking Ew bet and only Something Wells appeals to me as the remotest danger.
Despite being odds on, I can’t see anything getting near PUNCHESTOWNS (1.20) and for me he is one of the most exciting horses in training. His runaway win at Cheltenham has been franked left right and centre and with the talk being he could be a Gold Cup horse one day it appeals we could be about to witness another star in the making. The way he beat useful handicappers last time was seriously impressive and he is already the highest rated horse in the race. The strong pace set by Middleton Dane could give the strong travelling Amber Brook claims, but if I’m looking for a forecast prospect it has to be One Gulp. Paul Webber’s mare was considered to have needed the run last time out but done nothing but impress in the way she pulled out a gutsy effort to score beating a couple of in form mares. Punchestowns looks to have raw ability on his side and whilst I feel 4/7 is a cracking price for a horse I have 20lb clear on figures, I may play the straight forecast of him to beat One Gulp who appeals to me as a mare worth backing for the David Nicholson Hurdle when the ante price markets open. The forecast should pay around 2.58 by my calculations and that for me is great value, technically you are getting 2.58 One Gulp to be placed or without the favourite if you prefer and that is incredible value, Punchestowns is the selection however and I would be mightily disappointed if he were not good enough to win this.
The 1.55 is an open looking chase. Buck The Legend looked most impressive last time at Newbury and slammed his opposition but whilst that was impressive in a handicap, it is no straightforward task to give weight away in novice company. Katess for me was the moral winner at Wincanton last time despite coming 2nd. Holding a healthy advantage on the run to the 2nd last she made a serious error in which her rider done well to keep the partnership in tact. Flattening out she then handed a big chance to the Donald McCain trained Romping Home who with a decent jump at the last managed to pull out more to win. Katess looked the winner two down and on sticky ground I feel her chance went with the error. I would of course want to see a more fluent round of jumping from her today but receiving weight all round I feel she is slightly overpriced around 8/1, there is however the 7 runner curse.
Slash And Burn is another interesting runner and Charlie Swan’s charge has been unfortunate to come up against a couple of very smart types of late. 2nd to Massini’s Maguire last time he looked as if he would prefer a slower surface and with that likely today, he shouldn’t be written off. Hold Em for me will be doing his best work late but for me this trip is too short for him to get serious with the main horses in the field. At Wincanton he was all at sea over this trip behind a useful rival and then at Newbury he only made brief late headway before tiring in the ground off the last. I would like to see him run on a sound surface over a stiff 3m and that’s when I think we’ll see the best of him. His rivals should have too much pace for him today.
The one for me in the race is Naiad Du Misselot and despite being a strong layer of the horse last time he just backed up my fears that 2m really wasn’t his trip. He jumped marginally better than he did at Haydock (form let down since) but it was definitely a big improvement on his debut and I personally feel the winner Palomar could be a tad useful over a flat 2m. Naiad Du Misselot was given a positive billing from his trainer in midweek saying that he only really felt he was coming to himself now and that he would be suited by the stiffer track and the forecasted rain. Therefore even by his trainers admissions he wasn’t spot on, on his comeback starts and with that I wouldn’t be as keen to write him off as many have. Receiving 5lb from Hold Em and 8lb from Buck The Legend he looks a fairly solid option to me around 3/1 and I would take him ahead of Katess who I feel will run a fair race and would have been an ew bet for me had their been 3 places.
The feature of the day is the Boylesports Gold Cup (2.30) where we are faced with one of the shortest priced favourites in recent years, the highly impressive Paddy Power Gold Cup winner at the November meeting. I have been weighing up the options to work out if he is a good favourite or a bad favourite and trying to work out if he rates a lay or a play.
The Boylesports Gold Cup (Formally The Massey Ferguson Gold Cup Handicap Chase, The Tripleprint Gold Cup Handicap Chase, and most recently The Robin Cook Gold Cup Handicap Chase) has been going since 1963 where Limeking collected for Danny Morgan and Toss Taff, along the way the race has fallen to some star chasers notably Pendil, Dublin Flyer, Senor El Betrutti, Fondmort and Exotic Dancer. The last mentioned horse was the last horse to do both the Paddy Power and Boylesports double, whilst Senor El Betrutti (1997), and Pegwell Bay (1988) are the only other two horses to complete the double in the same season. So in 39 running’s of the race only 3 horses have completed the double, that is just a 7% strike rate. So it has to be asked why are people so hot on Imperial Commander’s chances. Pegwell Bay won the race rated 81 back in 1988 having won the Mackeson off 71, whilst Senor El Betrutti’s successes came off a mark of 150 (Murphy’s) before winning the Tripleprint off 153. Exotic Dancer also defied a ten pound rise wining the Paddy Power off 139, before collecting the Boylesports off 149. Now even if you look at the uphill task facing Imperial Commander today of trying to only be the 4th dual winner in the same year, it has to be noted the handicapper wasn’t as kind on him as he was his predecessors. Imperial Commander collected the Paddy Power by 2.75L in November when rated 139, but today he will have to shoulder 3lb more than any of his predecessors as he attempts to carry a 13lb rise off a mark of 152. 3lb may not sound a lot but it is still more than any of the winners before were raised and its not as if he was more impressive either. Pegwell Bay won his Mackeson by 10L, Senor El Betrutti won his Murphy’s by 3L and Exotic Dancer won his Paddy Power by 3L also. Now we come onto weights, today Imperial Commander has to shoulder 11st 9lb around the Prestbury track and when we look back the weights the previous three dual winners carried were, Pegwell Bay (10-13), Senor El Betrutti (11-3) and Exotic Dancer (11-4), the stats are not backing up well for Imperial Commander who for me faces a tougher task then any of his 3 previous dual winners.
Okay I know I shouldn’t oppose a hot favourite on past trends alone but I will also look at current form and show you why he is a poor value favourite. Imperial Commander won on his debut at Cheltenham in October 06, before in November getting beat into 4th and then on his next start in December he was only 6th, Last season a winner in October and November he then ran poorly in December not being seen again until his impressive Paddy Power win. On both his season’s of racing he has raced poorly in December, coincidence maybe but Fact definitely. On both occasions he was beaten 63L and 39L, now I’m not suggesting he will be out with the washing today but it has to raise concerns when 2/1 favourite for a competitive race. Considering further I notice he collected the Paddy Power off 10-7, and previously his winning weights had been 11-7 (only gave away 5lb max, 4 all off 11-7), 11-3 (level weights bar one), 10-12, 10-7 (getting a stone off the 2nd) and 11-7 (point to point, level weights). Now for me he has never had to carry a high weight and give weight to the majority of his rivals, something that he will have to do this afternoon, including 13lb to Silverburn who was still, going okay before making a bad mistake and was eased off.
Overall basing the above I couldn’t possibly back Imperial Commander (Lay) at 2/1 and with the facts on offer, I feel he is poorly priced and whilst his win was impressive there is enough against him to take him on at 2/1 today. I make him my lay of the day.
When looking for a bet in the race I only really get a feel for 3. Silverburn will always be shorter than he should be because of who trains him and that he’s Denman’s little brother, and whilst I feel he’ll run a big race here I don’t believe 9/2 represents value.
Three Mirrors is the first of two selections for me in the race and Ferdy Murphy raised a good point in an interview this week, stating that he was going as well as any 4 out when badly hampered and then he couldn’t get his momentum going again until the pack had got away from him. Making late progress he was not beaten about into 5th and the trainer reported that the rain would suit his horse down to the ground and that he was in much better form now than when he ran last time. Another with a 13lb pull at the weights with Imperial Commander its noticeable that the Ferdy Murphy horses are in much better form now and with the upbeat bulletin in midweek I would want him on my side at 12/1. He has already beaten Silverburn off the same weight terms, yet is 3 times the price, madness.
Finally I will stick my main selection in the race to My Petra. Nicky Henderson’s filly had a classy look about her at Ascot last time and she stuck on strongly to see off Oceanos Des Obeaux, Mahogany Blaze and Oslot. Previously impressive at Wetherby beating Blaeberry and Theatre Belle she looks a solid jumper who keeps improving. 11lb higher for her Ascot win, I feel she is more likely to improve than many and the ground and trip look ideal for her. Her Ascot win suggested there was still more to come and it should be noted connections went for this instead of the Jenny Mould Chase which would have likely been easy pickings for her. A lot of people say her form has come on faster ground but in previous seasons she has shown just as much good form on a slower surface and from a strong French family she should have no problem on the slower surface. Another priced at 12/1 she also looks solid each way and I’ll take her and Three Mirrors ew to make up 8pts (2.5pts Ew My Petra, 1.5pts Ew Three Mirrors) of my 10pts lay on Imperial Commander leaving me a 2pt profit on the field.
The Boylesports Hurdle follows at 3.05 and whilst Binocular (Lay) was impressive at Aintree and again at Haydock most recently I couldn’t entertain backing him here today. His stamina willed out here in March and whilst bulletins from the yard suggests he is stronger this season, the rain falling will only make his task tougher. Its never wise or perhaps I should say, its always brave to lay McCoy but I have to make him a 2nd lay on the day. 2/1 over a trip which will be testing against true and better stayers on a stiff track after a strong pace just gives me too much to be asked of Binocular and for me I wasn’t over impressed at Haydock. I know the saying is you can only beat what’s in behind you and he did win hard held but I don’t for one minute believe McCoy could have pressed go and shot 10 – 20L clear, which is what he would have needed to do to Los Nadis and Chord to have been good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. At 2/1 he has to be taken on, especially when his only defeat came here when there was cut in the ground. He also disappointed on soft ground in France.
Crack Away Jack was all the rage in the betting markets in midweek and whilst the return to 2m will suit, I don’t also get the impression he’s a contender to Katchit’s thrown.
For me Celestial Halo has been forgotten somewhat at 14/1, after all he was the Triumph winner and his Aintree defeat was excused by Nicholls at the time for saying he went flat and he was still, feeling Cheltenham, it seems most people have forgotten this, after all he showed true guts to win at Cheltenham and at the time was the 4yo they were all talking about as the next Champion, not Binocular or Crack Away Jack.
I do believe we will see the Champion Hurdle winner today and that’s why I’ve take the 20s ante post about Chomba Womba and the 10s about Katchit, both of these horses have Champion quality to me and I expect them to do battle up the hill today.
I really hope today will be the last time I hear Chomba Womba and David Nicholson used in the same sentence as she clearly hasn’t been getting home over 2m 4f and despite a win at Ascot she was out on her limbs at the last and if you stop the tape 2 out it would have been a rout. A stiff 2m on rain softened ground will really suit this improving mare and her impressive defeat of Takeroc and Katchit at Wincanton should be saluted. She done it easy and done it in the style of a Champion. Despite the weight she was getting she looked pure class and finished the race a horse full of petrol. There is absolutely no reason why Crack Away Jack should reverse the Ascot form as well and yet she is 6/1 compared to his 9/2, this again is madness which paper hype has created.
For me this will probably go to Chomba Womba and I make her the selection but I do recommend a saver on Katchit. I would probably go 3pts ew the mare, with 1pt ew on Katchit, as I feel this is where we see Katchit. Cut in the ground, a great big hill, level weights (well almost) and a good scrap. Katchit is just a hardy battler who comes to life at Cheltenham and by Alan King’s own admission he has needed races to come spot on because he is a tad lazy at home, lazy but lovely I shall add. His non jump like status being around 15hh 3” and quite narrow see’s him as one of the least attractive hurdlers around but he’s hardy and doesn’t give in. I was always told, if they try they win. Katchit is the perfect example of a horse with the will to win, and up this hill he tends to stick his “thou shall not pass” attitude in. Regardless to whether he is 1st, 2nd or 3rd today I don’t mind being quoted on this, He will win the Champion Hurdle in March. Alan King has said its about readying him for one race, the Champion and those who lose faith along the way should follow those famous word of Kipling, “If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same”; For me that is the key to Katchit, he is very good on his day and even when he gets beat he still puts in his usual effort and gives the glimpse of possibility, with a horse like Katchit he will prove in March why he is good and that’s because he will always rise to the occasion. Cheltenham is his track and whilst I feel Chomba Womba may out edge him today, I certainly think he won’t be far away and is definitely one to save on.
My Nap of the day comes in the 2.45 at Doncaster and whilst Ruby Walsh rides the big guns at Cheltenham, mark my words Sam rides the big Ditcheat winner at Donny. LEADING ATTRACION (Nap) looked in need of the run at Wincanton and having been a sketchy jumper the season before he was always there to make sure his jumping was spot on. He showed big improvement chasing home Cornish Sett and Island Flyer and whilst many will feel the 2nd let the form down in the Hennessy I feel the longer trip and making it a strong pace from the offset didn’t help him. Reports from Ditcheat suggest that Leading Attraction has done well for the run and continues to school well at home. Doncaster a long galloping straight will certainly suit him down to the ground today and this galloping 3m is ideal. Considered one of the best handicapped horses in the Nicholls yard, he has been presented with a great chance today and one I strongly expect him to collect in.
If Lingfield gets the go ahead I want Lodge Lane (2.40) on our side. It was hard not to be impressed by his Chasing debut and his trainer made it no secret afterwards that he feels he is a genuine Sun Alliance Chase challenger this season. Talked as maybe being good enough as a future Gold Cup horse his jumping was rather impressive for a novice and with no real stars against him today he can continue his Cheltenham preparation out of the limelight.
Over at Southwell, RACKETEER (12.40) is up there with the stronger bets for me today and I was mightily impressed by his run at Wolverhampton last time. Okay I didn’t see much of it due to low fog but he stayed on well having run green and dead heated for 2nd with Saptapadi whom I rate seriously talented. Racketeer continues to impress on the Al Bahathri and looked a fair tool in his latest gallop stretching out an easy few lengths clear of his lead. The half brother to Attraction looks to have come on nicely for the run and providing his rider can keep him on the pace and out the kickback I expect him to take all the beating today.
At Wolverhampton tonight I’ll give another chance to Metternich (8.20). I spoke positively about him prior to his debut and the way he was working I was seriously disappointed, however before the race I hinted I felt the trip was too far for him and that tonight’s 7f would be a more suitable trip. He has no shortage of pace and his gallop last weekend still has me thinking this is a nice type. I’m not one for writing off a horse after one run and with the 2nd from the race scoring since, I feel Metternich can put in a good run tonight at a fair price over a more suitable trip. He is a worthy ew bet.
Good Luck
Chris
This weekends National Hunt racing looks pretty decent, Cheltenham hosts a spectacular card whilst Doncaster have a couple of features worthy of a mention.
Cheltenham gets under way with a tricky juvenile hurdle at 12.10, but the 12.45 appeals to me as the day’s first betting opportunity. Tramantano carries the colours of the Mould family, the colours made famous by the likes of Grange Brake, Mister Morose, Barton Bank and more recently by Bindaree. Today’s race is run in the honour of Jenny Mould and there could hardly been a more fitting winner than the families Tramantano. Far from disgraced behind Oumeyade on his seasonal reappearance he then gave Brave Villa a comfortable beating at Aintree. Again put up a good effort here last time behind Pablo Du Charmil and would have got close but for a bad blunder at the second last. He seems to be steadily improving this season and whilst the majority of his form comes on a sound surface, he has acted well on soft ground suggesting that the forecasted rain wouldn’t dampen his chances. Dropped a lb for his recent effort he still appears fairly handicapped off a mark of 135 and he is still 2lb well in on his hurdles form. The Twiston-Davies horses have been running very well at present and whilst Boomshakalaka and Something Wells have to be respected I feel they would have preferred a bit further. Tramantano’s pace could be vital to him today and he looks very solid today at 4/1, I think he is a cracking Ew bet and only Something Wells appeals to me as the remotest danger.
Despite being odds on, I can’t see anything getting near PUNCHESTOWNS (1.20) and for me he is one of the most exciting horses in training. His runaway win at Cheltenham has been franked left right and centre and with the talk being he could be a Gold Cup horse one day it appeals we could be about to witness another star in the making. The way he beat useful handicappers last time was seriously impressive and he is already the highest rated horse in the race. The strong pace set by Middleton Dane could give the strong travelling Amber Brook claims, but if I’m looking for a forecast prospect it has to be One Gulp. Paul Webber’s mare was considered to have needed the run last time out but done nothing but impress in the way she pulled out a gutsy effort to score beating a couple of in form mares. Punchestowns looks to have raw ability on his side and whilst I feel 4/7 is a cracking price for a horse I have 20lb clear on figures, I may play the straight forecast of him to beat One Gulp who appeals to me as a mare worth backing for the David Nicholson Hurdle when the ante price markets open. The forecast should pay around 2.58 by my calculations and that for me is great value, technically you are getting 2.58 One Gulp to be placed or without the favourite if you prefer and that is incredible value, Punchestowns is the selection however and I would be mightily disappointed if he were not good enough to win this.
The 1.55 is an open looking chase. Buck The Legend looked most impressive last time at Newbury and slammed his opposition but whilst that was impressive in a handicap, it is no straightforward task to give weight away in novice company. Katess for me was the moral winner at Wincanton last time despite coming 2nd. Holding a healthy advantage on the run to the 2nd last she made a serious error in which her rider done well to keep the partnership in tact. Flattening out she then handed a big chance to the Donald McCain trained Romping Home who with a decent jump at the last managed to pull out more to win. Katess looked the winner two down and on sticky ground I feel her chance went with the error. I would of course want to see a more fluent round of jumping from her today but receiving weight all round I feel she is slightly overpriced around 8/1, there is however the 7 runner curse.
Slash And Burn is another interesting runner and Charlie Swan’s charge has been unfortunate to come up against a couple of very smart types of late. 2nd to Massini’s Maguire last time he looked as if he would prefer a slower surface and with that likely today, he shouldn’t be written off. Hold Em for me will be doing his best work late but for me this trip is too short for him to get serious with the main horses in the field. At Wincanton he was all at sea over this trip behind a useful rival and then at Newbury he only made brief late headway before tiring in the ground off the last. I would like to see him run on a sound surface over a stiff 3m and that’s when I think we’ll see the best of him. His rivals should have too much pace for him today.
The one for me in the race is Naiad Du Misselot and despite being a strong layer of the horse last time he just backed up my fears that 2m really wasn’t his trip. He jumped marginally better than he did at Haydock (form let down since) but it was definitely a big improvement on his debut and I personally feel the winner Palomar could be a tad useful over a flat 2m. Naiad Du Misselot was given a positive billing from his trainer in midweek saying that he only really felt he was coming to himself now and that he would be suited by the stiffer track and the forecasted rain. Therefore even by his trainers admissions he wasn’t spot on, on his comeback starts and with that I wouldn’t be as keen to write him off as many have. Receiving 5lb from Hold Em and 8lb from Buck The Legend he looks a fairly solid option to me around 3/1 and I would take him ahead of Katess who I feel will run a fair race and would have been an ew bet for me had their been 3 places.
The feature of the day is the Boylesports Gold Cup (2.30) where we are faced with one of the shortest priced favourites in recent years, the highly impressive Paddy Power Gold Cup winner at the November meeting. I have been weighing up the options to work out if he is a good favourite or a bad favourite and trying to work out if he rates a lay or a play.
The Boylesports Gold Cup (Formally The Massey Ferguson Gold Cup Handicap Chase, The Tripleprint Gold Cup Handicap Chase, and most recently The Robin Cook Gold Cup Handicap Chase) has been going since 1963 where Limeking collected for Danny Morgan and Toss Taff, along the way the race has fallen to some star chasers notably Pendil, Dublin Flyer, Senor El Betrutti, Fondmort and Exotic Dancer. The last mentioned horse was the last horse to do both the Paddy Power and Boylesports double, whilst Senor El Betrutti (1997), and Pegwell Bay (1988) are the only other two horses to complete the double in the same season. So in 39 running’s of the race only 3 horses have completed the double, that is just a 7% strike rate. So it has to be asked why are people so hot on Imperial Commander’s chances. Pegwell Bay won the race rated 81 back in 1988 having won the Mackeson off 71, whilst Senor El Betrutti’s successes came off a mark of 150 (Murphy’s) before winning the Tripleprint off 153. Exotic Dancer also defied a ten pound rise wining the Paddy Power off 139, before collecting the Boylesports off 149. Now even if you look at the uphill task facing Imperial Commander today of trying to only be the 4th dual winner in the same year, it has to be noted the handicapper wasn’t as kind on him as he was his predecessors. Imperial Commander collected the Paddy Power by 2.75L in November when rated 139, but today he will have to shoulder 3lb more than any of his predecessors as he attempts to carry a 13lb rise off a mark of 152. 3lb may not sound a lot but it is still more than any of the winners before were raised and its not as if he was more impressive either. Pegwell Bay won his Mackeson by 10L, Senor El Betrutti won his Murphy’s by 3L and Exotic Dancer won his Paddy Power by 3L also. Now we come onto weights, today Imperial Commander has to shoulder 11st 9lb around the Prestbury track and when we look back the weights the previous three dual winners carried were, Pegwell Bay (10-13), Senor El Betrutti (11-3) and Exotic Dancer (11-4), the stats are not backing up well for Imperial Commander who for me faces a tougher task then any of his 3 previous dual winners.
Okay I know I shouldn’t oppose a hot favourite on past trends alone but I will also look at current form and show you why he is a poor value favourite. Imperial Commander won on his debut at Cheltenham in October 06, before in November getting beat into 4th and then on his next start in December he was only 6th, Last season a winner in October and November he then ran poorly in December not being seen again until his impressive Paddy Power win. On both his season’s of racing he has raced poorly in December, coincidence maybe but Fact definitely. On both occasions he was beaten 63L and 39L, now I’m not suggesting he will be out with the washing today but it has to raise concerns when 2/1 favourite for a competitive race. Considering further I notice he collected the Paddy Power off 10-7, and previously his winning weights had been 11-7 (only gave away 5lb max, 4 all off 11-7), 11-3 (level weights bar one), 10-12, 10-7 (getting a stone off the 2nd) and 11-7 (point to point, level weights). Now for me he has never had to carry a high weight and give weight to the majority of his rivals, something that he will have to do this afternoon, including 13lb to Silverburn who was still, going okay before making a bad mistake and was eased off.
Overall basing the above I couldn’t possibly back Imperial Commander (Lay) at 2/1 and with the facts on offer, I feel he is poorly priced and whilst his win was impressive there is enough against him to take him on at 2/1 today. I make him my lay of the day.
When looking for a bet in the race I only really get a feel for 3. Silverburn will always be shorter than he should be because of who trains him and that he’s Denman’s little brother, and whilst I feel he’ll run a big race here I don’t believe 9/2 represents value.
Three Mirrors is the first of two selections for me in the race and Ferdy Murphy raised a good point in an interview this week, stating that he was going as well as any 4 out when badly hampered and then he couldn’t get his momentum going again until the pack had got away from him. Making late progress he was not beaten about into 5th and the trainer reported that the rain would suit his horse down to the ground and that he was in much better form now than when he ran last time. Another with a 13lb pull at the weights with Imperial Commander its noticeable that the Ferdy Murphy horses are in much better form now and with the upbeat bulletin in midweek I would want him on my side at 12/1. He has already beaten Silverburn off the same weight terms, yet is 3 times the price, madness.
Finally I will stick my main selection in the race to My Petra. Nicky Henderson’s filly had a classy look about her at Ascot last time and she stuck on strongly to see off Oceanos Des Obeaux, Mahogany Blaze and Oslot. Previously impressive at Wetherby beating Blaeberry and Theatre Belle she looks a solid jumper who keeps improving. 11lb higher for her Ascot win, I feel she is more likely to improve than many and the ground and trip look ideal for her. Her Ascot win suggested there was still more to come and it should be noted connections went for this instead of the Jenny Mould Chase which would have likely been easy pickings for her. A lot of people say her form has come on faster ground but in previous seasons she has shown just as much good form on a slower surface and from a strong French family she should have no problem on the slower surface. Another priced at 12/1 she also looks solid each way and I’ll take her and Three Mirrors ew to make up 8pts (2.5pts Ew My Petra, 1.5pts Ew Three Mirrors) of my 10pts lay on Imperial Commander leaving me a 2pt profit on the field.
The Boylesports Hurdle follows at 3.05 and whilst Binocular (Lay) was impressive at Aintree and again at Haydock most recently I couldn’t entertain backing him here today. His stamina willed out here in March and whilst bulletins from the yard suggests he is stronger this season, the rain falling will only make his task tougher. Its never wise or perhaps I should say, its always brave to lay McCoy but I have to make him a 2nd lay on the day. 2/1 over a trip which will be testing against true and better stayers on a stiff track after a strong pace just gives me too much to be asked of Binocular and for me I wasn’t over impressed at Haydock. I know the saying is you can only beat what’s in behind you and he did win hard held but I don’t for one minute believe McCoy could have pressed go and shot 10 – 20L clear, which is what he would have needed to do to Los Nadis and Chord to have been good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. At 2/1 he has to be taken on, especially when his only defeat came here when there was cut in the ground. He also disappointed on soft ground in France.
Crack Away Jack was all the rage in the betting markets in midweek and whilst the return to 2m will suit, I don’t also get the impression he’s a contender to Katchit’s thrown.
For me Celestial Halo has been forgotten somewhat at 14/1, after all he was the Triumph winner and his Aintree defeat was excused by Nicholls at the time for saying he went flat and he was still, feeling Cheltenham, it seems most people have forgotten this, after all he showed true guts to win at Cheltenham and at the time was the 4yo they were all talking about as the next Champion, not Binocular or Crack Away Jack.
I do believe we will see the Champion Hurdle winner today and that’s why I’ve take the 20s ante post about Chomba Womba and the 10s about Katchit, both of these horses have Champion quality to me and I expect them to do battle up the hill today.
I really hope today will be the last time I hear Chomba Womba and David Nicholson used in the same sentence as she clearly hasn’t been getting home over 2m 4f and despite a win at Ascot she was out on her limbs at the last and if you stop the tape 2 out it would have been a rout. A stiff 2m on rain softened ground will really suit this improving mare and her impressive defeat of Takeroc and Katchit at Wincanton should be saluted. She done it easy and done it in the style of a Champion. Despite the weight she was getting she looked pure class and finished the race a horse full of petrol. There is absolutely no reason why Crack Away Jack should reverse the Ascot form as well and yet she is 6/1 compared to his 9/2, this again is madness which paper hype has created.
For me this will probably go to Chomba Womba and I make her the selection but I do recommend a saver on Katchit. I would probably go 3pts ew the mare, with 1pt ew on Katchit, as I feel this is where we see Katchit. Cut in the ground, a great big hill, level weights (well almost) and a good scrap. Katchit is just a hardy battler who comes to life at Cheltenham and by Alan King’s own admission he has needed races to come spot on because he is a tad lazy at home, lazy but lovely I shall add. His non jump like status being around 15hh 3” and quite narrow see’s him as one of the least attractive hurdlers around but he’s hardy and doesn’t give in. I was always told, if they try they win. Katchit is the perfect example of a horse with the will to win, and up this hill he tends to stick his “thou shall not pass” attitude in. Regardless to whether he is 1st, 2nd or 3rd today I don’t mind being quoted on this, He will win the Champion Hurdle in March. Alan King has said its about readying him for one race, the Champion and those who lose faith along the way should follow those famous word of Kipling, “If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same”; For me that is the key to Katchit, he is very good on his day and even when he gets beat he still puts in his usual effort and gives the glimpse of possibility, with a horse like Katchit he will prove in March why he is good and that’s because he will always rise to the occasion. Cheltenham is his track and whilst I feel Chomba Womba may out edge him today, I certainly think he won’t be far away and is definitely one to save on.
My Nap of the day comes in the 2.45 at Doncaster and whilst Ruby Walsh rides the big guns at Cheltenham, mark my words Sam rides the big Ditcheat winner at Donny. LEADING ATTRACION (Nap) looked in need of the run at Wincanton and having been a sketchy jumper the season before he was always there to make sure his jumping was spot on. He showed big improvement chasing home Cornish Sett and Island Flyer and whilst many will feel the 2nd let the form down in the Hennessy I feel the longer trip and making it a strong pace from the offset didn’t help him. Reports from Ditcheat suggest that Leading Attraction has done well for the run and continues to school well at home. Doncaster a long galloping straight will certainly suit him down to the ground today and this galloping 3m is ideal. Considered one of the best handicapped horses in the Nicholls yard, he has been presented with a great chance today and one I strongly expect him to collect in.
If Lingfield gets the go ahead I want Lodge Lane (2.40) on our side. It was hard not to be impressed by his Chasing debut and his trainer made it no secret afterwards that he feels he is a genuine Sun Alliance Chase challenger this season. Talked as maybe being good enough as a future Gold Cup horse his jumping was rather impressive for a novice and with no real stars against him today he can continue his Cheltenham preparation out of the limelight.
Over at Southwell, RACKETEER (12.40) is up there with the stronger bets for me today and I was mightily impressed by his run at Wolverhampton last time. Okay I didn’t see much of it due to low fog but he stayed on well having run green and dead heated for 2nd with Saptapadi whom I rate seriously talented. Racketeer continues to impress on the Al Bahathri and looked a fair tool in his latest gallop stretching out an easy few lengths clear of his lead. The half brother to Attraction looks to have come on nicely for the run and providing his rider can keep him on the pace and out the kickback I expect him to take all the beating today.
At Wolverhampton tonight I’ll give another chance to Metternich (8.20). I spoke positively about him prior to his debut and the way he was working I was seriously disappointed, however before the race I hinted I felt the trip was too far for him and that tonight’s 7f would be a more suitable trip. He has no shortage of pace and his gallop last weekend still has me thinking this is a nice type. I’m not one for writing off a horse after one run and with the 2nd from the race scoring since, I feel Metternich can put in a good run tonight at a fair price over a more suitable trip. He is a worthy ew bet.
Good Luck
Chris
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